Hero call with TP omaha?

F_Ivanovic

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
samwise21	Sit out
rodneypowp	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£111.64
eggbag1919	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£168.95
	Your hole cards	9 7 J 8
F_Ivanovic	Raise		£1.50	£2.25	£296.81
MrTilted	Call		£1.50	£3.75	£60.74
rodneypowp	Fold
eggbag1919	Raise		£5.75	£9.50	£163.20
F_Ivanovic	Call		£4.75	£14.25	£292.06
MrTilted	Call		£4.75	£19.00	£55.99
Flop
		6 J 2
eggbag1919	Bet		£19.00	£38.00	£144.20
F_Ivanovic	Call		£19.00	£57.00	£273.06
MrTilted	Fold
Turn
		4
eggbag1919	Check
F_Ivanovic	Check
River
		10
eggbag1919	Bet		£42.75	£99.75	£101.45
F_Ivanovic	Call		£42.75	£142.50	£230.31
eggbag1919	Show	6 9 7 7
F_Ivanovic	Show	9 7 J 8
F_Ivanovic	Win	Pair of Jacks	£140.70		£371.01

OK so I didn't mean to post here. I meant to post in my diary but it didn't work there. All I did was paste here instead and it seems to have worked!!

Anyway, what does everyone think of the river call?

Phantom66

I can only assume you have a very player specific read there - wp

Cold I'm mucking to the flop bet.

As played the pot/check/shove does look an odd line and could be representative of a missed flush draw - but opponent wasn't even on that as it turns out.

Talon

  Well for what it is worth. I personally think that call is a losing play over 90% of the time in that spot. Yes it worked this time but all you are beating is a total bluff and a lot of bluffs on that board are beating you.


  Even with reads i cant see how making this sort of call can ever be profitable. But nice hand and you won it.

Phantom66

... Or did you just misread your hand and get lucky?

F_Ivanovic

Can never fold to flop bet Phantom - this is like the dream flop for my hand. TP + FD I even have a backdoor heart flush draw as well!! And lots of turns can give me 2 pair + wraps. Also opponent's standard c-bet size was POT. I could consider raising but if I don't want to raise/fold and if I get it in I'm probably only 40% equity vs his range. So flatting is the best option because I'm in position and can make his life difficult on turn cards.

@ Talon: My reads were that he would often 3-bet medium-low PP hands. (either DS or connected) - I also had a good suspicion that he would take a bet/check/bet line as a bluff and that he probably wasn't capable of going for too thin value. Given that, what hands can he have that beat me OTR? He could have rivered a set with TT or 2 pair with JT. But I don't think he can be turning much, if any, better hands into a bluff. But he can be turning lots of worse hands into a bluff. eg. AQT5, 6598, 5579, 88QK

I also think if we're folding to this river bet then we are folding to it way too often - we really don't have many good hands in our range when we check back turn and this river will only improve our hand occasionally. 

Phantom66

I wouldn't call it a dream flop - TP with a draw to a middling flush isn't great if we put our opponents on strong starting ranges of Omaha hands and at the time of calling there is a player behind you.

I would assume I am behind and quite possibly drawing dead to the flush which is why I said cold I would fold. If you have the player reads that they overplay weak hands or c-bet wide then fine with the call.

Why not try and take it down on the turn though?

You have shown resistance and opponent has checked a brick card.

TommyD

The flop is not a dream flop for our hand.  It's average at best, the sort of flop we have to tread carefully on and it gives us some equity to attack, but it's far from a dream.

As played I would bluff the turn, and it would be a bluff.

As played river is interesting.  He shouldn't be betting it with his hand.  Then again he shouldn't be 3betting pre with it or Cbetting that flop with it.  As played I am inclined to fold in this instance.  However if your reads on this guy are so good why not 4bet with this hand pre?  It'll balance when you have AAxx and KKxx and if he's this wide and happy to play mid pair semi connected starting hands we're just all over him in the long run.

tbh against this player with this hand I think we're flipping coins on the river as to if we are good or not.

I'm not all over our starting hand either, hate how we are missing the ten.  Yes I'd play it but I wouldn't be in love with it against the field.

F_Ivanovic

Would have been more fun if I hadn't posted results - as I said I didn't mean to, I was just checking my theory that when posting a hand in my diary it fails but posting it in the clinic works! (Since I posted it in my diary first, but failed)

Anyway, "dream flop" may have been exaggerating somewhat, but it's certainly high up in the list of flops we can hope for when playing this hand and against this opponent in particular there is no way we should ever be folding the flop. We can profitably raise/GII with this hand OTF but I think calling has a lot more value since we like a lot of turn cards and being in position we want to maximise our positional advantage.

Turn both betting and checking I think are fine. I have seen this player check turn with both strong hands and give up with air, so against that range betting doesn't seem too appealing since he folds all his air (with not much equity anyway) and gets it in with all his strong hands. And we really don't want to have to b/f or be forced to b/c through pot odds. I mean the 4 puts an unlikely straight out there but is effectively a blank so doubt he's folding anything better. Plus he bets most better hands OTT anyway.

4-betting pre is certainly an option but I'd rather play with as high a SPR as possible vs this player when I have position on him. OOP or if it's likely to go more than 3 way if I flat then I would definitely be 4-betting. As for our hand strength - yes, having a gap at the top is not as desirable as having the gap at the bottom. But despite that it's still a near premium hand for being in the CO and we're going to be folding PF way too much if we are folding this!

TommyD

In Response to Re: Hero call with TP omaha?:

Would have been more fun if I hadn't posted results - as I said I didn't mean to, I was just checking my theory that when posting a hand in my diary it fails but posting it in the clinic works! (Since I posted it in my diary first, but failed) Anyway, "dream flop" may have been exaggerating somewhat, but it's certainly high up in the list of flops we can hope for when playing this hand and against this opponent in particular there is no way we should ever be folding the flop. We can profitably raise/GII with this hand OTF but I think calling has a lot more value since we like a lot of turn cards and being in position we want to maximise our positional advantage. Turn both betting and checking I think are fine. I have seen this player check turn with both strong hands and give up with air, so against that range betting doesn't seem too appealing since he folds all his air (with not much equity anyway) and gets it in with all his strong hands. And we really don't want to have to b/f or be forced to b/c through pot odds. I mean the 4 puts an unlikely straight out there but is effectively a blank so doubt he's folding anything better. Plus he bets most better hands OTT anyway. 4-betting pre is certainly an option but I'd rather play with as high a SPR as possible vs this player when I have position on him. OOP or if it's likely to go more than 3 way if I flat then I would definitely be 4-betting. As for our hand strength - yes, having a gap at the top is not as desirable as having the gap at the bottom. But despite that it's still a near premium hand for being in the CO and we're going to be folding PF way too much if we are folding this!
Posted by F_Ivanovic

I disagree with the statement in bold if you are playing an anywhere near competent PLO player who isn't hugely aggressive.  With how deep you are if you GII on the flop against a reasonable opponent you are dead to runners a ton of the time, have dominated draws and/or are praying for the board not to pair.

TommyD

In Response to Re: Hero call with TP omaha?:

think its a fold on the flop we have top pair no kicker our flush draw could be dead think ya guessing on the flop if ya good  when u call what do u want to see on the turn a spade u dnt know if ya flush will be good 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

Disagree with this, it's certainly not a fold on the flop, especially with reads on this player as described.

F_Ivanovic

Although we are deep, it's a 3bet pot and so the SPR is already much smaller and vs this particular opponent a flop raise is just going to show much profit, given how wide he is pot-c-betting. Once we raise, we are not exactly loving life when villain shoves but at the same time we still have more than enough equity to call it off.

eg. If we raise to £46 and villain shoves we need to call £112 to win a pot of £332 meaning we need 33.7% equity. Worst case scenario we have 25% equity against something like AsKsQdJd. 2nd two worst case scenarios are we are up against an overpair + a flush draw where we have 35% and up against a set where we have around 37%. So both of these we have enough equity to call. And villain is getting it in with J6, bare overpairs and stuff like AKQJ (w/o a FD) - and against all of these hands we have about 57-58% equity. Thus vs his whole range we should have close to 50% equity.

In fact it's pretty hard to find a range of hands we're up against where raise/GII here is incorrect. We'd have to be up against someone very tight that would only POT hands that he was almost always stacking off with.

Another good reason to raise in general is that whilst we likely have a lot of equity vs most c-betting range is that we don't necessarily know whether our flush draw will be good or not if we do hit it. But besides the flush draw our visibility is pretty good - any 7 through to J is going to be pretty good for us - even more so if it's a heart.