MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo.

TommyD

This hand is bothering me.  I have discussed it with a couple of people and I think the consensus is I made a nitty fold, however none of us managed to define a range for the villain.

Situation - FT of the Monday night 9pm £55 Bounty Hunter, all ITM.  Vil is winning reg, had some nice results.  Usually plays quite tag but is able to take the odd flier and play unconventional on occasion.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
gazzaluf05	Small blind		400.00	400.00	53365.00
andyfewste	Big blind		800.00	1200.00	132132.50
	Your hole cards	A K
Diminuendo	Fold
x	Raise		1600.00	2800.00	49367.50
madman11	Fold
TommyD	Raise		4000.00	6800.00	15380.00
gazzaluf05	Fold
andyfewste	Fold
x	Call		2400.00	9200.00	46967.50
Flop
		Q Q 8
x	Bet		4800.00	14000.00	42167.50
TommyD	Fold
x	Muck
x	Win		9200.00		51367.50
x	Return		4800.00

I came to the conclusion I shove if I have just one diamond on the board.  As it was I had 20bb if I folded and felt I could find a better spot.  I did, however the 20% came in and I bust in 6th anyway.  Nagging feeling I should have shoved, thoughts?

gazza127

In Response to MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo.:

This hand is bothering me.  I have discussed it with a couple of people and I think the consensus is I made a nitty fold, however none of us managed to define a range for the villain. Situation - FT of the Monday night 9pm £55 Bounty Hunter, all ITM.  Vil is winning reg, had some nice results.  Usually plays quite tag but is able to take the odd flier and play unconventional on occasion. Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance gazzaluf05 Small blind   400.00 400.00 53365.00 andyfewste Big blind   800.00 1200.00 132132.50   Your hole cards A K       Diminuendo Fold         x  Raise   1600.00 2800.00 49367.50 madman11 Fold         TommyD Raise   4000.00 6800.00 15380.00 gazzaluf05 Fold         andyfewste Fold         x  Call   2400.00 9200.00 46967.50 Flop     Q Q 8       x Bet   4800.00 14000.00 42167.50 TommyD Fold         x  Muck         x Win   9200.00   51367.50 x  Return   4800.00 I came to the conclusion I shove if I have just one diamond on the board.  As it was I had 20bb if I folded and felt I could find a better spot.  I did, however the 20% came in and I bust in 6th anyway.  Nagging feeling I should have shoved, thoughts?
Posted by TommyD

Looks a lot like villain either has a middling pair or air and is not willing to C/C multiple streets.  IMO he never has the Q here, so shoving will get through on a fair few occassions... unless he knows you are more likely to just flat call a Q here and overpairs to bluff catch.... you might still end up getting called by his middling pairs.

I shove.  But im pretty stubborn.  Id be thinking he doesnt have a Q here and could possibly fold out some pairs that have you beat at this moment.... plus id consider all 6 of my outs live.  Yeah I go with my hand.

TommyD

In Response to Re: MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo.:

In Response to MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo. : Looks a lot like villain either has a middling pair or air and is not willing to C/C multiple streets.  IMO he never has the Q here, so shoving will get through on a fair few occassions... unless he knows you are more likely to just flat call a Q here and overpairs to bluff catch.... you might still end up getting called by his middling pairs. I shove.  But im pretty stubborn.  Id be thinking he doesnt have a Q here and could possibly fold out some pairs that have you beat at this moment.... plus id consider all 6 of my outs live.  Yeah I go with my hand.
Posted by gazza127

That's the other problem.  I know I both shove here with a Queen and flat on occasion.  The problem is my hand won't look like a Queen if I shove.  It also doesn't really look that much like an overpair.  My thoughts at the time was it was TT or JJ, not sure how many folds I am getting from those holdings though.

hhyftrftdr

I might sometimes flat here. Problem arises from being in position ironically; they could just put us in on the turn and leave us in a horrible spot.

Flatting at least should look super strong. I dunno. Suppose with 20bb behind we can let this go.

Eurgh.

gazza127

In Response to Re: MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo.:

In Response to Re: MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo. : That's the other problem.  I know I both shove here with a Queen and flat on occasion.  The problem is my hand won't look like a Queen if I shove.  It also doesn't really look that much like an overpair.  My thoughts at the time was it was TT or JJ, not sure how many folds I am getting from those holdings though.
Posted by TommyD

If I was villain id be giving you credit with your 3 bet on the button.  You're relatively shallow so the 3 bet is rarely going to be you messing around, unless you know villain is a maniac.  So id be giving you the range of 1010+ and AK, AQ preflop easy peasy.  You wouldnt be 3 betting without a hand you weren't willing to go to war with.

I think we can eliminate AA-QQ from villains range.  Issues arise in the JJ,1010 area.  i genuinely believe these are the only two hands (baring an A) which we can possibly call a shove with.  We have to give you credit for a narrow range... the only hand in that range we beat with JJ is AK or 1010.  The only hand we beat with 1010 is AK... and having 99- gives you another pair in your range that beats us.

So the question is how often does he have JJ/1010 in this scenario.  Would he 4 bet shove jacks pre?  Does he donk lead flops for value... or because he doesnt know where he is in the hand and he doesnt want to C/C and is essentially semi-bluffing.  What villain has done is given you very little FE.  So hes giving you a really awkward spot to bluff/semi-bluff.  Good players do this a lot... with made hands and air.  Can you give him credit to do this with an AJ type hand?

Table image must also factor in whether you think your shove would get through.  Both yours and his.

But yeah... as I said, im stubborn so would probably shove, expecting to gets folds on occassions but also just bink my A or K on the river

rancid

fold like a little girl Tommy - u have 0 FE - u have 15k on flop right

either Qx/10'S/j'S/

or 9's,8's

or

air/AJ type hands

Lambert180

First of all, I deffo don't think we can narrow Tommy's range down to purely AQ+ and TT+ when he 3bets the button with like 25xBB.

I'm intrigued to know who it is but am far too lazy to check GaryQQQ's thread for the final tablists so no cheating lol.

I think it's a fold btw, it's mostly gonna be the middling pairs 99-JJ and once they've taken this line, they're never folding to a shove imo.

gazza127

In Response to Re: MTT FT Hand. Curious line from oppo.:

First of all, I deffo don't think we can narrow Tommy's range down to purely AQ+ and TT+ when he 3bets the button with like 25xBB. I'm intrigued to know who it is but am far too lazy to check GaryQQQ's thread for the final tablists so no cheating lol. I think it's a fold btw, it's mostly gonna be the middling pairs 99-JJ and once they've taken this line, they're never folding to a shove imo.
Posted by Lambert180

3 betting with 25bb IMO is definitely a narrow range.  im expecting Tommy to start 3 bet shoving around the 18-22bb mark with a variety of hand, but with 25bb he is never 3 betting worse than 1010+ and KQs+.  Maybe ive been sucked into Tommys web of lies and he has been exploiting me for months... who knows.  IMO he'd only be 3 betting light if:

1) he knew he could get a fold there and then v this villain
2) he knew he could get mediocre hands to call... hands which arent going to like a variety of boards which he can c-bet and take it down  e.g. QJ, 77-
3) he hates money.

rancid

stupid thing about the whole hand is if we shove vill can only call with Qx,88 KK,AA.
o yeah lets call off the other 10k and see what ? AK - 99 !
donk is so annoying like vill should fold but you know they just won't

You would have to be into some levels with villian to shove imo
Prob have to look into the reason for vill to be donking - to look stroung ? or to look weak ?

idk Tommy u is legend

hhyftrftdr

Gotta say Gazza, I think Tommy's range here is potentially quite wide, because he is a very good player. I don't think he'd take this line with rags, but something like a J10s that is easy to fold to a 4bet, but can not only flop well and with such a strong line and a relative short stack it puts the pressure on the opener to peel here, with the implication being that we could be playing for stacks.

That makes no sense but I know what I'm trying to say I think.

F_Ivanovic

3bet size IP seems somewhat big if you are 3-betting a wider range than just value here, so I'm guessing your 3-bet range here value heavy? Flop is so annoying but there's no need to defend AK here since we should have enough hands we are happy continuing with.

NColley

foldings good, wp.

TommyD

As I thought to where this discussion would probably go, let's talk 3bet sizing.  I've gone from 2bb to 5bb.  I can understand if people are advocating a move up to 4bb but I think this sizing is too value heavy, mainly because any thinking player would have already correctly surmised I do not think a move to 4bb or the click to 3bb for that matter are getting many folds on this site and from that stack.  However I counter the sizing to a smaller flop sizing where FE will be greater and some players may well be playing too much 'fit or fold.'

What sizing does the forum believe is the most balanced and correct here?

My 3bet range here?  It probably is a little value heavy, but looking around the table and the stacks it probably has to be.  There will be some ace blockers and the odd suited con in my r/f range here but from this stack I have to have more r/c holdings as it's a Bounty Hunter on the FT and everyone seems to love a Bounty, therefore 4bet jam ranges are wider.

gazza127

Fine with the 3 bet sizing. But yeah... with your stack against much larger stacks I can see your much much more likely to be raise/calling than raise/folding. 

So when you 3 bet im much more prone to believe youve got a value hand rather than 3 betting light,  which is why id have to give you credit for a flop shove if I was holding a hand like 99/1010. Although I wouldnt play the hand like this if I was villain

Lambert180

Yeah it's exactly the 3bet sizing I'd use.... although that doesn't necessarily mean it's right !

F_Ivanovic

Surely a smaller 3b will be less value heavy, or did I mis-interperet your post? Since it's smaller we can 3b bluff more since we need it to work less of the time for it to be succesful (and by work I mean either the 3-b or the flop c-bet) I really don't mind if they want to just flat pre when I have position and the initiative because of how often a c-bet will be taking the pot down for us.

I think my standard 3-bet size OTB here with these stacks would be around 3000 - somewhere inbetween a click it back and a 2x. 

LnarinOO

hmmmm i love the bet by villian regarless of what he has - even tho were the aggressor and in possition- it makes us decide 'our fate' as such- im mean were only jamming or folding right? 

im struggling to give villian a range here- mainly as i dont know who it is but if there a decent reg it comes down  to how they veiw your 3bet and how they think you would veiw or react to their donk lead (if this was planned)

not sure about the actual game flow at the time but if they thought you could be 3bettin even slightly lite then not 4betting pre with any middling pairs would be weird- so i doubt they have many pairs- unless there slow played monsters-

imo he could be doin this with a Q epecting us to jam bluffs or hands were going with - or he can have air and risking minimal chips from his own stack  but putting us in a pretty discusting spot- this is why i love his donk lead - 

as to what i would do here- 

i cannot give villian too many pairs pre- id think a decent reg would rather 4bet pre vs a pretty aggro 3bet range- (again not sure about game flow/dynamics, so may be wrong here)

they could have some random 8 their bet calling with but if there clever enough here they'd no that donkin anything here puts us in a horrible spot but i think they have too much air in their range and jus using their stack to give us a decision-- im probally going with it tbh--