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donk my open ended Strt flush draw and am over bet on the paired board?
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,962
this hand was from the 250 BH.
in the MTT itself this was his 7th hand since joining the table and so far he hadn't did a single limp most of them were actually folds and once he did a raise.
with it just being limped preflop I ruled out the premium hands and AK AQ.
what I had in mind that he was holding is either trips, the nut flush draw, a middle pair or a suited connector.
the chance of him having a FH does seem unlikely given his bet size.
Having been overbet should I just ship it all in or should I make the call knowing the chances are he will fold unless he has got trips FH or the nut flush draw the only hand I see calling which is behind is 54s?
was I right to donkbet in the first place or is check raise the better option long term.
in the MTT itself this was his 7th hand since joining the table and so far he hadn't did a single limp most of them were actually folds and once he did a raise.
with it just being limped preflop I ruled out the premium hands and AK AQ.
what I had in mind that he was holding is either trips, the nut flush draw, a middle pair or a suited connector.
the chance of him having a FH does seem unlikely given his bet size.
Having been overbet should I just ship it all in or should I make the call knowing the chances are he will fold unless he has got trips FH or the nut flush draw the only hand I see calling which is behind is 54s?
was I right to donkbet in the first place or is check raise the better option long term.
| hsimpson | Small blind | 40.00 | 40.00 | 3805.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Big blind | 80.00 | 120.00 | 7467.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| dgl100 | Fold | ||||
| Jayner8 | Call | 80.00 | 200.00 | 4960.00 | |
| x | Call | 80.00 | 280.00 | 3740.00 | |
| hsimpson | Fold | ||||
| craigcu12 | Check | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 160.00 | 440.00 | 7307.50 | |
| Jayner8 | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 1120.00 | 1560.00 | 2620.00 | |
| craigcu12 | |||||
Comments
If you lose just load up another mtt
A donk-bet is, specifically; leading out when we are not the last aggressor. It's an important distinction.
Anyway, leading this flop is absolutely fine as there was no pre-flop raiser. We can't assume that anyone is actually going to bet if we check and we want to be semi-bluffing on this flop where our equity is at its highest. That's all fine, although we can probably get away with betting a bit smaller.
Then things get a bit weird with this massive raise. I actually think it's a fold.
Our equity is pretty poor against most of the hands we figure to get it in against here. Occasionally we'll be getting it in as a favourite against an A7 type hand or weaker draw. We'll also occasionally be getting it in as a 9% dog against a flopped house or quads. Against the rest of the villain's likely range for getting it in, we're not in great shape; Likely around 40%-45%.
Assuming we have no fold equity with a shove and that we don't want to just call this river and see a turn (which we definitely don't want to do), then our pot odds for getting it in on this flop are 46%. Essentially, with no fold equity, we're calling it off.
It's close and it's not a big mistake to get it in. If there are enough hands we're a favourite against that the villain can play this way (A7, 88, 45) then we can get it in profitably. If we think a villain limp-calling pre-flop, then taking off on the flop is unlikely to hold one of those marginal hands, then we're probably making a -EV play by getting it in here.
Obviously that all changes if we DO think we have fold equity with a 3-bet shove. In that case, we absolutely should get it in here.
Having seen the result of the hand i think the range of hands in these limped pots on the flop will include the premium pairs too. the amount of limped pots that i have seen include premium pairs or AK AQ is growing. i think i remember one of the live show mention a similar thing themselves when analizing some MS hands.
This hand i guess the player himself was right that i was a fish for just make the call.
my thought was overall that if i were to jam he would be folding hands most days unless they are nut flush trip or FH. i also likely didn't think enough about the hand range of himself or me at the time either because i was on some cash tables on 888 poker.
Can't ask for a much better flop, nh!
IF I were holding the nut flush draw on this board is does that still have enough outs to jam or does the risk of trips and FH remove too much value?