I have never played on site with so much variance when all in, on all my other poker sites my sharkscope is smooth over hundreds of games but on Sky its all over the place. After dozens of bad beats this month I decided to record all my allins situations. Today I was all-in 5 times and lost every one, as usual. My hand is the one on the left.
. . . KQo vs K8o & T9s Lost KJ vs 99 Lost K9s vs J9o Lost AQo vs 55 Lost KK vs 88 Lost Probability of losing them all = 0.008% or 1/118
1/118 is 0.8%, not 0.008%
Out of interest how did you come up with this overall figure? Two of these hands are 2 x overcards -v- underpair which is effectively a coin flip, one is overpair -v- underpair, one has three contesting hands (I looked it up at 45% win prob) and the last one is one overcard (72%);
50/100 x 50/100 x 82/100 x 45/100 x 72/100 = 664,200,000 / 10,000,000,000
Knock off five noughts from each side of the equation and you get 6,642 / 100,000; then divide both sides by 1,000.
I calc'd it out at 6.6% coincidence probability; around 15-1, not 117-1 as you thought?
15-1 is less than getting rivered out with two still still in the deck (which is 22-1), and I'm sure you've suffered your fair share of those?
I have never played on site with so much variance when all in, on all my other poker sites my sharkscope is smooth over hundreds of games but on Sky its all over the place. After dozens of bad beats this month I decided to record all my allins situations. Today I was all-in 5 times and lost every one, as usual. My hand is the one on the left. KQo vs K8o & T9s Lost KJ vs 99 Lost K9s vs J9o Lost AQo vs 55 Lost KK vs 88 Lost Probability of losing them all = 0.008% or 1/118 Posted by Wizzlet
If you are going to put numbers then please explain how you came up with them because 98.47568645344% of the time they are made up or just wrong( like that one).
In Response to A daily record of my all-in failures : If you are going to put numbers then please explain how you came up with them because 98.47568645344% of the time they are made up or just wrong( like that one). Posted by jonjo75
You're right - when I did the statistics module of a course I attended a billion years ago I was told that 98.47568645344% of statistics were made up on the spot (the number goes up if you're a politician or work for one of the main political parties in one of those think-tank outfits).
Sorry I used pokerstove for the equity calculation figures, it gave me 0.53, 0.55, 0.28, 0.54, 0.19 odds for losing each one individually, so my 5 all ins on the night multiplied gives 0.00837, I forgot to multiply it by 100 to give the %age of 0.8. If we roughly use fractions my odds of losing is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/5 which is about 1/100.
My posting must have been heard by the poker gods 'cos I won all three of my all-ins tonight and won a little mtt.
Yes awesome suckout when heads up. Unlucky churchy! Been running better but 13 left with 10 paid in NLHE MTT the other night, 2 all in short stacks b4 me. I have KK, I shove too, big stack in BB calls with 99. Massive pot. Hands are QQ, T9s my KK and 99. Obv case9 comes on river
Comments
Out of interest how did you come up with this overall figure? Two of these hands are 2 x overcards -v- underpair which is effectively a coin flip, one is overpair -v- underpair, one has three contesting hands (I looked it up at 45% win prob) and the last one is one overcard (72%);
50/100 x 50/100 x 82/100 x 45/100 x 72/100 = 664,200,000 / 10,000,000,000
Knock off five noughts from each side of the equation and you get 6,642 / 100,000; then divide both sides by 1,000.
I calc'd it out at 6.6% coincidence probability; around 15-1, not 117-1 as you thought?
15-1 is less than getting rivered out with two still still in the deck (which is 22-1), and I'm sure you've suffered your fair share of those?
I used this: http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
If you are going to put numbers then please explain how you came up with them because 98.47568645344% of the time they are made up or just wrong( like that one).
If we roughly use fractions my odds of losing is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/5 which is about 1/100.
My posting must have been heard by the poker gods 'cos I won all three of my all-ins tonight and won a little mtt.
u never get any breaks hmmm.....
Wizzlet
Been running better but 13 left with 10 paid in NLHE MTT the other night, 2 all in short stacks b4 me. I have KK, I shove too, big stack in BB calls with 99. Massive pot. Hands are QQ, T9s my KK and 99. Obv case9 comes on river