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Don't think we can fold here!

LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
edited December 2013 in The Poker Clinic
I like opponents raise, I probably like an overbet jam even more, which would be a fold, but a lot would call.

One of the most deadly hands in poker, straight over higher straight.
sproule03 Small blind  £0.05 £0.05 £8.85
LARSON7 Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £27.63
  Your hole cards
  • 10
  • A
     
karl88402 Raise  £0.30 £0.45 £28.19
gazza127 Fold     
dazza987 Fold     
JoseRey Fold     
sproule03 Fold     
LARSON7 Call  £0.20 £0.65 £27.43
Flop
   
  • 6
  • 9
  • 8
     
LARSON7 Check     
karl88402 Bet  £0.33 £0.98 £27.86
LARSON7 Call  £0.33 £1.31 £27.10
Turn
   
  • 5
     
LARSON7 Check     
karl88402 Check     
River
   
  • 7
     
LARSON7 Bet  £0.98 £2.29 £26.12
karl88402 Raise  £4.25 £6.54 £23.61
LARSON7 Call  £3.27 £9.81 £22.85
karl88402 Show
  • J
  • 10
   
LARSON7 Muck
  • 10
  • A
   
karl88402 Win Straight to the Jack

Comments

  • shakinacesshakinaces Member Posts: 1,590
    edited December 2013

    Even a nit like me will struggle to put a 10 down there unless you have something very, very specific on the villain.

    Any raise looks like they just have the bare 10 (in this case) and are hoping you will call for a split (playing the board)...

    I agree that jam is probably the best play if you are the one holding JT, but I suppose the pot/stack ratio was so huge in this instance that it became a bit less effective?  I mean, most people at these levels probably recognise your name at the table and give credit to you being able to fold what, 220 blinds to win 22... so if he has JT /> 10% of the time it is a fold.

    It is pretty much the dream/horror spot to find yourself in though!

  • DoubleAAADoubleAAA Member Posts: 954
    edited December 2013
    Unlucky Larson, bit of a cooler here, but a bit naughty leaving the villians name in :)
  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited December 2013
    Agree we probably have to sigh call but I'd be expecting to chop a lot, if he jammed the full like 200xBB I think we'd see JT ALOT!
  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited December 2013
    We need 33% equity to call here. If we assume he's raising all of his Tx hands (T9-AT) and is never bluffing then we have 39.32%. If he's only raising half of his Tx hands that aren't the nuts then we only have 32.42%. Since there's a straight on board already he might think we could call with worse so it's concievable he probably raises his Tx most of the time. So I think we do have to call here - his sizing is pretty good although he could possibly get away with slightly larger and still force us to call
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