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Tricky spot 2 from the money in UKOPS #1

TheCrillyTheCrilly Member Posts: 9
edited January 2014 in The Poker Clinic
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
Nutter5932 Small blind   600.00 600.00 26947.09
tech34 Big blind   1200.00 1800.00 10857.18
  Your hole cards
  • J
  • J
     
0mc Fold        
kwd Call   1200.00 3000.00 44570.30
TheCrilly Raise   3800.00 6800.00 27638.00
Nutter5932 Fold        
tech34 Fold        
kwd Call   2600.00 9400.00 41970.30
Flop
   
  • A
  • 10
  • K
     
kwd Bet   9400.00 18800.00 32570.30
           
           
Villain is a profitable mtt reg, had not played with him before and had been quiet since I got moved to table.

Had no clue what to do.  Probably should have made my raise larger pre.  If I fold I have 23bb and will almost certainly make the money.  If shove and get called and win, I'll be top 3 in chips.
          
           

           

           
           
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Comments

  • jimb0d1jimb0d1 Member Posts: 660
    edited December 2013
    urgh. I would fold and hate it readless. I like pre. 
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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1 Member Posts: 1,828
    edited December 2013
    In Response to Re: Tricky spot 2 from the money in UKOPS #1:
    urgh. I would fold and hate it readless. I like pre. 
    Posted by jimb0d1
    +1. A spot you would love in cash but hate here, especially tourny dynamics. Fold, cash, and hope for good future spots.
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  • kidwiz10kidwiz10 Member Posts: 569
    edited January 2014
    Im not one for min cashing so id have gone ahead and just jammed to his pot bet.

    This might be a bad play on my part but you gotta get lucky in these eventually so id take my chances with the gamble and go for the win even if there was better spots down the line.
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  • WHOAMI196WHOAMI196 Member Posts: 1,170
    edited January 2014
    easy fold because he is never bluffin and we are almost always behind, this is not a bluff size bet imo as he is not folding looking at stacks, when you are drawing as it is likely here, you need ~ 33% or more equity to call in this spot, and so a shove is a mistake as he is not folding(we must assume, as it is the likeliest scenario vs unknown) we need to be ahead... since he could have a Qs you are dead to a queen or runner runner, so almost dead....

    Looking at stack dynamics i would not 3-bet this hand, because 1. i do not want to stack off vs bigger stack and risk my tourney life and turn jj into a bluff 2. we are almost at the bubble point we have a stack that can put pressure to those on our immediate left and pick up some almost risk free chips because it would take them to risk their tourney life to make a re-steal attempt..

    hope that helps
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