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Main Event, River Decision

LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
edited January 2014 in The Poker Clinic
Don't know 2 much about the player, felt the check raise was a set or air, leaning more towards air.

Call turn re-assess, on the river, what's everyones thoughs here?

It looked bluffy, don't think he plays a set this way. Don't see him having to many 10's in his range. Unless maybe Q 10 suited, 8 10 suited, But i was struggling to put him on either of these hands.

Call or fold?


Jonesy1066 Small blind  50.00 50.00 7724.50
lJAMESl Big blind  100.00 150.00 12866.50
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • Q
     
FoldMachii Raise  200.00 350.00 13901.00
cracked Fold     
cjy Fold     
LARSON7 Raise  500.00 850.00 11247.50
Jonesy1066 Fold     
lJAMESl Fold     
FoldMachii Call  300.00 1150.00 13601.00
Flop
   
  • 2
  • 9
  • J
     
FoldMachii Check     
LARSON7 Bet  575.00 1725.00 10672.50
FoldMachii Raise  1150.00 2875.00 12451.00
LARSON7 Call  575.00 3450.00 10097.50
Turn
   
  • 7
     
FoldMachii Bet  1710.00 5160.00 10741.00
LARSON7 Call  1710.00 6870.00 8387.50
River
   
  • 8
     
FoldMachii All-in  10741.00 17611.00 0.00
LARSON7 ?  
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Comments

  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited December 2013
    Don't just think about what hands they might have in their range for value but think about what hands they can have as a bluff that you beat. There was no FD on the flop but there was OTT. So they might have a hand like AdKd or AdQd that bluff-raised flop and then picked up a FD OTT. But other than these hands the only way villain can be bluffing if he is just raising flop with complete air (eg. A5o, 33) and then barreling turn/shoving river. Now you might find maniacs making this play but in general it doesn't happen too often.

    It's definitely possible that villain has a T here and they can also have a set/2 pair. If they are good they can shove a set for value OTR knowing that it's v unlikely that you can hold a T here but if they're not so good they might just shove because they don't know what else to do and they're just shoving because they think they still might be good. So I wouldn't rule a set out.

    So I think folding river is definitely the best play because it looks a lot harder to find many bluff hands they can have whereas they can definitely have plenty of value hands that beat us.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited December 2013
    Why wouldn't they play a set this way? Wouldn't be surprised to see villain rock up with J10 here. Check minraise as they think think they are miles ahead, and end up getting there on the river. We beat almost nothing on the river, easy fold.
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  • LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
    edited December 2013
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    Why wouldn't they play a set this way? Wouldn't be surprised to see villain rock up with J10 here. Check minraise as they think think they are miles ahead, and end up getting there on the river. We beat almost nothing on the river, easy fold.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    I doubt a set makes this bet on the river. That's what i was talking about playing a set that way.
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  • LnarinOOLnarinOO Member Posts: 545
    edited January 2014
    looks very polarised even down to Q-10 or complete air but the sizing makes it an easy pass-

    villains sizing is very incosistant and is weighted heavily towards the flopped OESD with Q-10 and a river bomb hoping u have a lone 10.. however as we having little or no 10's in our range than this is a very good spot as a bluff..


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  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited January 2014

    Depending on your BTN 3-betting range, you could get to the river with some 10's here (1010 Q10 10xdd) but granted not too many. Can't really see a set shoving this river for value expecting to be called by worse.

    K10, Q10, 810s or air imo. How often is the villain gonna be blowing 110bb effective on a 3 barrel bluff in the early stages of big tourney here? Not even close to often enough to call the river imo.

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  • LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
    edited January 2014
    I just called.

    Sometimes in poker you get that feeling, like sigh call. Or i'm beat.

    I didn't really have that here, my thoughts were a set or nothing. The river was a brilliant card to bluff on.

    When he shoves river im sure he doesnt have a set, i doubt a set would shove here.

    I typed in the box "set?" before calling.

    I called and won the hand. Probably just a bad call and i got lucky.

    Others have said, if call turn call river (otherwise you are just heamoraging money)

    Or just fold turn.
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  • LnarinOOLnarinOO Member Posts: 545
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    I just called. Sometimes in poker you get that feeling, like sigh call. Or i'm beat. I didn't really have that here, my thoughts were a set or nothing. The river was a brilliant card to bluff on. When he shoves river im sure he doesnt have a set, i doubt a set would shove here. I typed in the box "set?" before calling. I called and won the hand. Probably just a bad call and i got lucky. Others have said, if call turn call river (otherwise you are just heamoraging money) Or just fold turn.
    Posted by LARSON7
    you have to re-evaluate this river as its not a brick- it could have easily changed either partties hand and is why its polarised his bet, as he should also be scared should he of held a set etc.. 
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited January 2014
    curious what villain showed up with? As I said there aren't a lot of bluffs possible unless villain is a maniac bluffer.

    btw. Hero so rarely has a T that I'm shoving a set OTR.
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  • LnarinOOLnarinOO Member Posts: 545
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    curious what villain showed up with? As I said there aren't a lot of bluffs possible unless villain is a maniac bluffer. btw. Hero so rarely has a T that I'm shoving a set OTR.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    dunno if i ever use villains sizing otr.. total spazout imo
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited January 2014
    3bet bigger pre
    fold river
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision : dunno if i ever use villains sizing otr.. total spazout imo
    Posted by LnarinOO
    Q10? ... Never shoving a set here though.

    Larson - Calling Turn and folding River is definitely not haemorrhaging money. 
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  • LnarinOOLnarinOO Member Posts: 545
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision : Q10? ... Never shoving a set here though. Larson - Calling Turn and folding River is definitely not haemorrhaging money. 
    Posted by 77Chris91
    its jus such bad sizing as played- its like 150%pot to jam

    *EDIT* looked back at SS not that much but still hate sizings
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited January 2014
    How is shoving a set a spazout? It's a bit more than a pot bet and it makes it look polarized to a bluff or straight when it's not - which convinced Hero to call with QQ. 
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  • LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision : Q10? ... Never shoving a set here though. Larson - Calling Turn and folding River is definitely not haemorrhaging money. 
    Posted by 77Chris91
    Hey Chris,

    Not much point in caling turn to fold river, which long term would hameorage money.

    Pretty much fold turn, or go with the hand.

    Outside a bad river, which this was and wasn't!
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  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision : Hey Chris, Not much point in caling turn to fold river, which long term would hameorage money. Pretty much fold turn, or go with the hand. Outside a bad river, which this was and wasn't!
    Posted by LARSON7
    Hey Larson,

    Strongly disagree with this. Imo this river has changed the board texture significantly. I think with this line oppo has a LOT of semi-bluffs on the turn (SD's/FDs with 10d) etc, that we are currently ahead of, but go behind to on the river.

    If I were the villain I would expect you to fold 90% of the time with a hand like QQ. This is why I think this river is a great card to barrel (not shove) as it's a great card for the villain's range and a poor card for ours.

    This is also the same reason why I'm never shoving a set for value here. I'm expecting to fold out hands like QQ 90% of the time and expect to see a 10 virtually every time I get called.

    Sorry if that's all ramble lol!





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  • LnarinOOLnarinOO Member Posts: 545
    edited January 2014
    Initially thought jam was much bigger which Is only reason I didn't agree with sizing.. didn't mention anythin bout not shoving sets? 

    And Larson we defo have to re-evaluate the river as changed too much
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited January 2014
    In Response to Re: Main Event, River Decision:
    Initially thought jam was much bigger which Is only reason I didn't agree with sizing.. didn't mention anythin bout not shoving sets?  And Larson we defo have to re-evaluate the river as changed too much
    Posted by LnarinOO
    This.
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited January 2014
    ^^^ This.

    Loads of people say stuff like 'if you called the turn, you have to call the river' but that's not always the case. Firstly, the river can change the board texture as above, but also, people's ranges just aren't the same for 3barrelling as they are for 2barrelling (most of the time).
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited January 2014
    Why do people think calling the turn and folding the river is bad?

    If that's true, then surely calling the flop and folding on the turn is bad? 

    And then calling preflop and folding otf is bad?

    AND THEN BEING DEALT INTO A HAND AND FOLDING PREFLOP IS BAD

    yh and if you have made it to this point thinking, yeah, that sounds like a legit strategy: congratulations, you're a fish. 

    see where I'm going with this?

    each street brings a whole new decision tree for our range (and our opponents!) and as a result most of the time that whole theory doesn't make any sense
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  • LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
    edited January 2014

    Thanks everyone, thought i'd post it cause 3 people said good call in the box, but just knew atleast 1 was thinking, how did he call lol

    Opponent had 6c8c

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