River Bet Sizing

peter27

This hand is from a UKOPS ME Early Semi and the read I had on FLATCAPBIL was that he had no problem betting on the flop and turn with absolutely nothing.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
FLATCAPBIL	Small blind		50.00	50.00	5248.00
middys	Big blind		100.00	150.00	5795.00
	Your hole cards	A A
peter27	Raise		200.00	350.00	4907.50
subsnw	Fold
bromley04	Fold
FLATCAPBIL	Call		150.00	500.00	5098.00
middys	Fold
Flop
		J 4 3
FLATCAPBIL	Check
peter27	Check
Turn
		7
FLATCAPBIL	Bet		250.00	750.00	4848.00
peter27	Call		250.00	1000.00	4657.50
River
		Q
FLATCAPBIL	Bet		500.00	1500.00	4348.00
peter27	Raise		1250.00	2750.00	3407.50
FLATCAPBIL	Fold
peter27	Muck
peter27	Win		2000.00		5407.50
peter27	Return		750.00	0.00	6157.50

I'm probably going to be asked why I didn't bet on the flop. My reason was for deception. The flop was dry and I had position ... I didn't want to risk losing my customer in such a strong position. Again, just called his bet on the turn for deception, was almost certain I was ahead at this point.

My question comes on the river, how was my re-raise size? I figured that as he bet 500, and given his stack size he wouldn't mind calling an extra 750 considering he had been doing all the betting up until this point. Tried to make it look like a bit of a bluff I guess.

LnarinOO

instead of asking why u didnt bet the flop ill ask why u are betting for deception ..?? seeing as u are in position ur read is usless cos u have the lead in the hand and he has done no bettin as yet.. instead of thinkin about deception, think about balance insteaad, what would u do if u didnt have AA here and raise pre with 9-10 say..

now u would be betting to get villain to fold.. basically if u do the correct frequency of value hands and bluffs then u make the opponent guess or make the mistake..

as to the bet sizing the bigger the better - its highly unlikely u will get called anyway so u may aswel go for more 

hhyftrftdr

I appreciate deception, but this isn't as dry a flop as you think. Both straight and flush draws can be lurking here; So many hands we can get value from. Really should be going for 3 streets of value....

But as this is based around the river, I'll chuck in my 2 cents. This is a sat, so it's unlikely you're ever really bluffing on the river. It looks like a raise that wants a call. There is only really 2 cards, at a push, in the deck that pay you off (Kd, maybe Jd). On this basis, I'd be betting much bigger on the river; FCB either has a high diamond that we can get max value from, or he has an airball/something very marginal that will not be calling any raise.

I might even ship this river. But then this comes back to other streets. Had we bet all 3 streets, we probably have a stack to jam on the river without it being a big overbet....

F_Ivanovic

Raise more pre. I think too many players get in a bad habit of min-r just because they see everyone else doing it as standard. If we min-r and someone who has position on us decides to come along then chances are we are going to end up in a 3/4 way pot with aces which is not what we want. For min-opening from this position to be correct at this stack depth you'd need to be opening fairly wide and the rest of the table would have to be playing very tight.

Post-flop you should definitely be playing the flop. There are VERY few players you will encounter where checking for deception with a strong hand is a viable option. Most often if we check for deception it will be with weaker hands that can't necessairly get 3 streets of value. eg. If you held Jx9d here then checking flop here is much better since most we can get is 2 streets of value and if villain is going to bluff a high % of time on turn/river then that's great for us.

When we check for deception with a strong hand though we need to get equal to or more than 3 streets of value for the check to be good. eg. In this hand imagine turn is a blank 3 (v ul to improve either hand) Villain checks and we lead out now for 400. Since we checked the flop, villain assumes the strongest hand we have here is a mediocre jack or a pp 66-TT and decides to bluff-raise us to 1200. We call and river is a Q. Villain now bluff shoves all in because it does not seem like we can be very strong here at all and we call to take it down.

Here, the check for deception worked but it was only because we got the best turn and villain was thinking & aggressive. Better flops might be things like A72r whereby we check flop to bet turn. Villain assumes we either have a weak ace or a hand like TT-KK and can raise us OTT. But if we sometimes check stronger aces like AJ-AK then we don't always have to be b/f the turn.

River I might raise a bit bigger because your sizing looks too like value and as hh said if he has a big diamond he probably calls a bigger raise anyway.

peter27

In Response to Re: River Bet Sizing:

instead of asking why u didnt bet the flop ill ask why u are betting for deception ..?? seeing as u are in position ur read is usless cos u have the lead in the hand and he has done no bettin as yet.. instead of thinkin about deception, think about balance insteaad, what would u do if u didnt have AA here and raise pre with 9-10 say.. now u would be betting to get villain to fold.. basically if u do the correct frequency of value hands and bluffs then u make the opponent guess or make the mistake.. as to the bet sizing the bigger the better - its highly unlikely u will get called anyway so u may aswel go for more 
Posted by LnarinOO

Good point about if I had 9-10, didn't consider that so thanks!

Not sure about your last sentence though .. surely if we think the opposition is not going to call then we should be betting small to try squeeze some value (assuming that we are ahead).

In Response to Re: River Bet Sizing:

I appreciate deception, but this isn't as dry a flop as you think. Both straight and flush draws can be lurking here; So many hands we can get value from. Really should be going for 3 streets of value.... But as this is based around the river, I'll chuck in my 2 cents. This is a sat, so it's unlikely you're ever really bluffing on the river. It looks like a raise that wants a call. There is only really 2 cards, at a push, in the deck that pay you off (Kd, maybe Jd). On this basis, I'd be betting much bigger on the river; FCB either has a high diamond that we can get max value from, or he has an airball/something very marginal that will not be calling any raise. I might even ship this river. But then this comes back to other streets. Had we bet all 3 streets, we probably have a stack to jam on the river without it being a big overbet....
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Straight and flush draws are lurking, but I don't think we're too worried about them on the flop .. give that he called my raise.

Yeah, I think you're right about betting all three streets, over the last few weeks (at this point I should apologise to everyone for the slow reply) I have adapted my game to check for deception less and get more value :-)

In Response to Re: River Bet Sizing:

Raise more pre. I think too many players get in a bad habit of min-r just because they see everyone else doing it as standard. If we min-r and someone who has position on us decides to come along then chances are we are going to end up in a 3/4 way pot with aces which is not what we want. For min-opening from this position to be correct at this stack depth you'd need to be opening fairly wide and the rest of the table would have to be playing very tight. Post-flop you should definitely be playing the flop. There are VERY few players you will encounter where checking for deception with a strong hand is a viable option. Most often if we check for deception it will be with weaker hands that can't necessairly get 3 streets of value. eg. If you held Jx9d here then checking flop here is much better since most we can get is 2 streets of value and if villain is going to bluff a high % of time on turn/river then that's great for us. When we check for deception with a strong hand though we need to get equal to or more than 3 streets of value for the check to be good. eg. In this hand imagine turn is a blank 3 (v ul to improve either hand) Villain checks and we lead out now for 400. Since we checked the flop, villain assumes the strongest hand we have here is a mediocre jack or a pp 66-TT and decides to bluff-raise us to 1200. We call and river is a Q. Villain now bluff shoves all in because it does not seem like we can be very strong here at all and we call to take it down. Here, the check for deception worked but it was only because we got the best turn and villain was thinking & aggressive. Better flops might be things like A72r whereby we check flop to bet turn. Villain assumes we either have a weak ace or a hand like TT-KK and can raise us OTT. But if we sometimes check stronger aces like AJ-AK then we don't always have to be b/f the turn. River I might raise a bit bigger because your sizing looks too like value and as hh said if he has a big diamond he probably calls a bigger raise anyway.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

I understand why you would say raise more pre, but I had been 2x ing consistently at this level, a sudden 3x raise would look too much like a stong hand.

Okay yeah, so you agree with the other comments - shouldn't have been deceptive, I understand that now :-)

Thanks guys, very helpful comments :-)

hhyftrftdr

''surely if we think the opposition is not going to call then we should be betting small to try squeeze some value (assuming that we are ahead).''

Thing is, villain has to have a very specific holding to call any raise. If he has a hand that he can't call a raise with, then it doesn't matter if we click it back or just ship the lot, because he can't call. If he has a hand that can potentially pay us off, we should be betting big for maximum value. If he has the Kd here, we want to get as much as possible and so raise more. Generally speaking, whenever we hold the nuts, we should be betting big.

In regards to the straight and flush draws, they can be lurking. He's peeled your min raise in the SB. Playing around 50bb effective as well so could peel quite wide. Any 2 diamonds, 56s, 57s, A5 and A2 have wheel gutshots too. We wanna be building a pot when playing this deep. Could possibly check back the flop if the effective stack was 15bb or so, but with these larger stacks we should be building and betting every street. 

peter27

In Response to Re: River Bet Sizing:

''surely if we think the opposition is not going to call then we should be betting small to try squeeze some value (assuming that we are ahead).'' Thing is, villain has to have a very specific holding to call any raise. If he has a hand that he can't call a raise with, then it doesn't matter if we click it back or just ship the lot, because he can't call. If he has a hand that can potentially pay us off, we should be betting big for maximum value. If he has the Kd here, we want to get as much as possible and so raise more. Generally speaking, whenever we hold the nuts, we should be betting big. In regards to the straight and flush draws, they can be lurking. He's peeled your min raise in the SB. Playing around 50bb effective as well so could peel quite wide. Any 2 diamonds, 56s, 57s, A5 and A2 have wheel gutshots too. We wanna be building a pot when playing this deep. Could possibly check back the flop if the effective stack was 15bb or so, but with these larger stacks we should be building and betting every street. 
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Hmmm, I'm not sure about the bit in bold. I mean, sometimes players know they shouldn't call but they might speculatively call a small bet to see what the next card brings? I'm not saying that's necessarily the right way to play, but it does happen.

EDIT: Just reviewed the hand again properly and seen that you're probably talking about this specific river decision, so fair enough as there are no more cards to come

KAM99

As others have said. I don't like min-r preflop at this level. 3x or 2.5x as a minimum really. Min-r really prices in the BB to call, and definately if another person calls. Last thing  you suddely want is a situation you raise with min-r UTG and get 3-4 callers, which can happen.

Straight is less likely given blinds, but definately not impossible given min-r and if you have any loosish players. And to dismiss the flush draw as unlikely is not the best of choices overall. Might not be likely, but if they do have it you going to lose value and give them a free card.

Same with Cbet. Sure, maybe you get a fold from him, but thats poker. If not you get more value from your AA.

River. Doubt you would get more here unless he is pretty loose and has a jack. As it is I suspect as played you got more than you would have if you had bet the flop, but I'd not put it down as a habit to form long-term.

peter27

In Response to Re: River Bet Sizing:

As others have said. I don't like min-r preflop at this level. 3x or 2.5x as a minimum really. Min-r really prices in the BB to call, and definately if another person calls. Last thing  you suddely want is a situation you raise with min-r UTG and get 3-4 callers, which can happen. Straight is less likely given blinds, but definately not impossible given min-r and if you have any loosish players. And to dismiss the flush draw as unlikely is not the best of choices overall. Might not be likely, but if they do have it you going to lose value and give them a free card. Same with Cbet. Sure, maybe you get a fold from him, but thats poker. If not you get more value from your AA. River. Doubt you would get more here unless he is pretty loose and has a jack. As it is I suspect as played you got more than you would have if you had bet the flop, but I'd not put it down as a habit to form long-term.
Posted by KAM99

That all makes sense to me, tanks a lot KAM :-)