Limping pre-flop is definitely a mistake by the villain.
Am I the only one that thinks flatting the flop is the best line?
What range do we think the villain is donking with? There are no draws on the flop and we know he's unlikely to have limped TT+. When we raise we give the villain a great chance to fold all his low pairs and his air and make it easy for him to stack us in the unlikely scenario of him having a 4 or 99.
I flat the flop to let him put more money in on the turn with his 9x, low pairs and air. If we raise, it seems that we're trying to get value only from an opponent stationing us down. As it happens, that's what he did on the flop, but we don't appear to have that read prior to this hand... unless I've missed that information somewhere.
I really appreciate all this input guys, I thought I might just get a load of people telling me I'm an idiot! Anyway my thinking at the time was this and I realise there are holes in my thinking to an extent but... He limps, I want money in the pot so I raise him pre (granted not a big raise) he calls. The flop comes down and he donk bets. The timer is running, I figure raise him up and see what he does. I figure if he has nothing he folds, if he has A9 or A4 he calls. On the turn a 2 lands, I assume that nothing has changed. He bets out again, I figure he could be doing this with A9 as he could assume that if I have AK or AQ I would reraise the flop to see if he folds because I thought his donk bet was to try and rep the 9 or the 4's when in fact he had called pre with A10 or something. Here I think is my first betting mistake. If I had raised him again and he had nothing or even A9 then maybe he would have folded. If he had called that raise or shoved there then I have to figure he's got the set of 4's or possibly a FH with pocket 9's (less likely). Either way I have to smell a rat. Instead like an idiot because I'm not sure and starting to worry about the 9's or A4 I call. Now I've put in another quid and got no more info than I had before and shown that I'm unsure (maybe?). The river hits and it's a J and he shoves. I'm fairly sure I can rule out pocket J's. In my head I have AA and I completely ignore that I was cautious on the turn and now decide that he just has big balls and thinks his A9 is good. I figure that even if he has J9 and improved his two pairs he could maybe think that if I have pocket 10's he's in front and also with AQ AK. I also figure that if I was him and had the nuts then I wouldn't shove in case I got a fold, I would make decent raise and hope for a call or a reraise as I had already done. I call. It was dumb. As someone else pointed out when did anyone raise twice the pot with a bluff? I wonder had I raised the turn and got a call would I have been convinced that he had me beat? Obv not with a set of 2's but beat all the same. The last few days I have realised that I call too many river bets because i'm sure that they "can't have it again!" and they almost always do
Although the river bet is pretty polarising, the villain strikes me (from what little info I have on him from this thread), as the type of player who may well over value certain hands. I think J9 is certainly a potential hand here, and would fit the story too.
Basically by the river he either has J9 or the 4. Maybe, just maybe, they will also show up with KK/QQ from time to time. I wouldn't beat yourself up for making the call. I think most players would at 10nl, then kick yourself when the pot goes over to them.
In Response to Re: What could I have done here(other than fold obviously!)? : I think you completely missed the point. I never made any claims that the villain's play was in any way optimal. What I tried to do was put it from the villain's viewpoint - how a less experienced player might think, how a less experienced player might make decisions, how a less experienced might, for example, "think his deuces are good". It is very easy to criticise his play, but I thought that viewing it how he might see it would add some value to the discussion. Posted by BigBluster
Rarely worth commenting on the villian in any hand that much unless it is relevant to the hero's line etc. Certainly at the low limits it's never worth it as you expect fishy play at that level. It's not a slight, just a statement of fact that you'll get people making mistakes because they don't know any better yet. Doesn't need looking at much more than that really.
Comments
Am I the only one that thinks flatting the flop is the best line?
What range do we think the villain is donking with? There are no draws on the flop and we know he's unlikely to have limped TT+. When we raise we give the villain a great chance to fold all his low pairs and his air and make it easy for him to stack us in the unlikely scenario of him having a 4 or 99.
I flat the flop to let him put more money in on the turn with his 9x, low pairs and air. If we raise, it seems that we're trying to get value only from an opponent stationing us down. As it happens, that's what he did on the flop, but we don't appear to have that read prior to this hand... unless I've missed that information somewhere.
He limps, I want money in the pot so I raise him pre (granted not a big raise) he calls. The flop comes down and he donk bets. The timer is running, I figure raise him up and see what he does. I figure if he has nothing he folds, if he has A9 or A4 he calls. On the turn a 2 lands, I assume that nothing has changed. He bets out again, I figure he could be doing this with A9 as he could assume that if I have AK or AQ I would reraise the flop to see if he folds because I thought his donk bet was to try and rep the 9 or the 4's when in fact he had called pre with A10 or something. Here I think is my first betting mistake. If I had raised him again and he had nothing or even A9 then maybe he would have folded. If he had called that raise or shoved there then I have to figure he's got the set of 4's or possibly a FH with pocket 9's (less likely). Either way I have to smell a rat. Instead like an idiot because I'm not sure and starting to worry about the 9's or A4 I call. Now I've put in another quid and got no more info than I had before and shown that I'm unsure (maybe?). The river hits and it's a J and he shoves. I'm fairly sure I can rule out pocket J's. In my head I have AA and I completely ignore that I was cautious on the turn and now decide that he just has big balls and thinks his A9 is good. I figure that even if he has J9 and improved his two pairs he could maybe think that if I have pocket 10's he's in front and also with AQ AK. I also figure that if I was him and had the nuts then I wouldn't shove in case I got a fold, I would make decent raise and hope for a call or a reraise as I had already done. I call. It was dumb. As someone else pointed out when did anyone raise twice the pot with a bluff? I wonder had I raised the turn and got a call would I have been convinced that he had me beat? Obv not with a set of 2's but beat all the same. The last few days I have realised that I call too many river bets because i'm sure that they "can't have it again!" and they almost always do