Should I value bet river?

mrdavies · January 2014

I put him on a weak Queen, so probably should have value bet - but being results orientated he only had FD.

Was also worried about a better King, is it best to just check this river? If he shoves, I am put in tricky spot so not sure wether to bet or check

Flop
splashies	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£23.48
jtm	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£15.80
mrdavies	Big blind		£0.20	£0.50	£19.80
	Your hole cards	K 10
gayboy698	Fold
mrdavies	Raise		£0.40	£0.90	£19.40
BluOne	Call		£0.60	£1.50	£42.65
splashies	Call		£0.50	£2.00	£22.98
jtm	Call		£0.40	£2.40	£15.40
		K 2 Q
splashies	Check
jtm	Check
mrdavies	Bet		£1.20	£3.60	£18.20
BluOne	Call		£1.20	£4.80	£41.45
splashies	Call		£1.20	£6.00	£21.78
jtm	Fold
Turn
		5
splashies	Check
mrdavies	Bet		£3.00	£9.00	£15.20
BluOne	Call		£3.00	£12.00	£38.45
splashies	Fold
River
		4
mrdavies	Check
BluOne	Check
mrdavies	Show	K 10
BluOne	Muck	3 5
mrdavies	Win	Pair of Kings	£11.40		£26.60

chicknMelt · January 2014

no, i like your check on the river.

If you bet what will they fold? missed flushes/straight draws, almost all weaker pairs almost all hands you beat

if you bet what will they call with? mostly a K or better. maaaybe a Q, if the villain is a bit of a station. almost all hands that beat you

If you check, what will they bet with? A good K or better, missed flush and straight draws. a mixture of hands you beat and hands you dont.

I'd say the best line is to check call the river. By checking you give your opponent the chance to bluff with the many missed draws he will have in his range, which would fold if you bet. Cant see you getting value out of a weaker hand anyway. If the villain hadn't hit his 5 on the turn, there is a good chance they would have bet the river when you checked to them..

DOHHHHHHH · January 2014

In Response to Should I value bet river?:

I put him on a weak Queen, so probably should have value bet - but being results orientated he only had FD. Was also worried about a better King, is it best to just check this river? If he shoves, I am put in tricky spot so not sure wether to bet or check splashies Small blind £0.10 £0.10 £23.48 jtm Big blind £0.20 £0.30 £15.80 mrdavies Big blind £0.20 £0.50 £19.80 Your hole cards K 10 gayboy698 Fold mrdavies Raise £0.40 £0.90 £19.40 BluOne Call £0.60 £1.50 £42.65 splashies Call £0.50 £2.00 £22.98 jtm Call £0.40 £2.40 £15.40 Flop K 2 Q splashies Check jtm Check mrdavies Bet £1.20 £3.60 £18.20 BluOne Call £1.20 £4.80 £41.45 splashies Call £1.20 £6.00 £21.78 jtm Fold Turn 5 splashies Check mrdavies Bet £3.00 £9.00 £15.20 BluOne Call £3.00 £12.00 £38.45 splashies Fold River 4 mrdavies Check BluOne Check mrdavies Show K 10 BluOne Muck 3 5 mrdavies Win Pair of Kings £11.40 £26.60
Posted by mrdavies

How? why? Quite a specific read???

Chris_Mc · January 2014

having a quick scroll through, i say the check was fine and be glad to take it down with one pair, being called on every street, i say u have showdown value rather than loose anymore.

KAM99 · February 2014

Absolutely check is the right option here. Thereis nothing to be gained by betting a marginal hand on the river, as he will likely only call with something that beats you, or even raise and leave you facing a potential fold. C/C on the other hand gives him the chance to bluff at the pot, which he might try with a missed draw. River is safe card, so think this is best option 9/10 times.

As to your read; I've no idea how you can put him on such a limited hand given the board is very draw heavy.

BorinLoner · February 2014

I don't think this is a clear check on the river.

Think of it this way: If we bet, which hands do we represent? Those missed draws, a King or better. So the villain can bluff catch against the missed draws in our range, which may be plenty. That's especially true of a thinking player who will know that their own range is capped by the pre-flop and post-flop action. That is to say they're unlikely to have TPTK or better themselves having not raised at any point... meaning it's easy for them to be perceived as being marginal themselves.

They may take the view with the Kx or Qx hands that, having called the turn, they must call the river because it has changed nothing. These bluff catcher hands are hands which will all check back on the river given the chance. There's no value in them betting a weaker hand than our KT.

On the other hand, if the villain is holding a missed draw themselves they obviously can't call a bet. However, they should be fairly unlikely to bluff here, too. We've seen a flop multi-way that has come KQ-high. That's not a board that is likely to have missed multiple players' ranges. Our check on the river looks just like what it is; we're checking to let missed draws bluff... so he shouldn't bluff.

Of course that's all going to be player dependent as some players won't be able to resist bluffing the river when checked to and others won't call a third barrel on this river with worse hands.

Just have a think about the range of hands that can be beating us in the villain's range, though. Having not been 3-bet, we should rule out AK, KK and QQ. Having not been raised on a wet flop, we should rule out KQ. That leaves low sets and KJ that are beating us. Our value bet can be called by weaker Kx and possibly some Qx hands...

I think it's a thin value spot, but definitely a bet rather than a check, in a vacuum. Provide more notes on villain in future and you can get a better answer.

BorinLoner · February 2014

Also got to agree with not narrowing down the villain's range to one particular hand or type of hand. At least we need to be able to explain why we're giving them such a precise range.

BorinLoner · February 2014

The point has been made elsewhere that our overall image is also vital here: If we've never been seen to barrel three streets before, then betting is not so good a plan. We need our line to be believable as a missed draw, which will depend largely on our previous action.

The same can be said of whether we've been seen to bluff-catch in these spots against the villain before.

Dynamic really is the most important thing in these decisions. Which is why we need to be able to provide detailed information wherever possible. Providing that information in the forum is also going to make us more alert to it at the table.

F_Ivanovic · February 2014

Borin, if you are betting this hand on the river, then what are you check calling with?

BorinLoner · February 2014

Well, whether I'm check-calling anything obviously depends on my opinion of the villain's tendency to take a stab on this board, having been multi-way to flop and turn...

However, if I feel that's possible then I suppose I'd consider check-calling with bluff-catchers that don't fair too well against the villain's own bluff-catching range. That likely means Qx and pocket pairs JJ-66, though it's not likely I'd have bet flop and turn with those hands.

What I might do with any weaker Kx hands, should there be any in my range, would be interesting. KT is virtually the effective second nuts against an unknown villain's likely range, though.

All very dynamic, bet-sizing, etc. dependent. There are certainly good arguments that multi-way against a smart villain who recognises a bluff-catching range on the river, we shouldn't have a check-calling range at all. After all, if villain is holding a flush draw, we look like we're calling and there isn't much weak Kx hands can beat which villain should value bet. Also, as said above, having bet multi-way on flop and turn, which weak value hands can we be expected to hold that villain thinks we're willing to fold?

There is no single "answer" to which hands I'd be check-calling. Dynamics.

Should I value bet river?

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