TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?

craigcu12

with me having 3 other tables open at the same time i didn't get to see too much of his action post flop.
his preflop range mind seemed to be a tight range so i was expecting his range preflop to be main based on strong aces KQ or pocket pairs.

when he does the first bet i  still thought he could have KK as a possibility. but once he did the reraise i was expecting myself to be behind him for sure i'm not exactly sure that he would even reraise AK having been check raised.

Kingspinne	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£11.75
craigcu12	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£16.87
	Your hole cards	Q A
x	Raise		£0.40	£0.55	£27.53
Viglante	Fold
supercrazy	Fold
Kingspinne	Fold
craigcu12	Call		£0.30	£0.85	£16.57
Flop
		J 9 A
craigcu12	Check
x	Bet		£0.64	£1.49	£26.89
craigcu12	Raise		£1.68	£3.17	£14.89
x	Raise		£3.15	£6.32	£23.74
craigcu12	?

seppe

In Response to TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

with me having 3 other tables open at the same time i didn't get to see too much of his action post flop. his preflop range mind seemed to be a tight range so i was expecting his range preflop to be main based on strong aces KQ or pocket pairs. when he does the first bet i  still thought he could have KK as a possibility. but once he did the reraise i was expecting myself to be behind him for sure i'm not exactly sure that he would even reraise AK having been check raised. Kingspinne Small blind   £0.05 £0.05 £11.75 craigcu12 Big blind   £0.10 £0.15 £16.87   Your hole cards Q A       x Raise   £0.40 £0.55 £27.53 Viglante Fold         supercrazy Fold         Kingspinne Fold         craigcu12 Call   £0.30 £0.85 £16.57 Flop     J 9 A       craigcu12 Check         x Bet   £0.64 £1.49 £26.89 craigcu12 Raise   £1.68 £3.17 £14.89 x Raise   £3.15 £6.32 £23.74 craigcu12 ?
Posted by craigcu12

If you aint looking to get it in ere, theres something wrong

Slipwater

From the villain's point of view, I'm probably only raising there with a set of 9s or jacks.

KAM99

You are behind him against his range, with or without including AK (if we assume he might overvalue AK). I'd say most times you got to be behind. Certainly call, but not 100% sure I favour a shove against his likely range.

If we could put him on 99, JJ, AA, AK, AJ and Q10 we are ahead equity wise, but not sure we could give him this range given the betting. Given his postion I might have reraised preflop as well.

Lambert180

Yeah we have to flat here and re-assess on the turn.

This deep, if we get it in on the flop we're gonna see a set so close to 100% of the time it's unreal.

craigcu12

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

You are behind him against his range, with or without including AK (if we assume he might overvalue AK). I'd say most times you got to be behind. Certainly call, but not 100% sure I favour a shove against his likely range. If we could put him on 99, JJ, AA, AK, AJ and Q10 we are ahead equity wise, but not sure we could give him this range given the betting. Given his postion I might have reraised preflop as well.
Posted by KAM99

TBH AQ has been a hand that i always struggle with preflop.

is the 3bet about seperating the small and middle pairs from the the premium pairs and AK as that is what i'm thinking makes AQ seem to get me in so much difficulty.

if he did a 4bet after my 3bet then i am folding it for sure, so if he does call i will know that i'm unlikely to be against AA and KK, QQ might still be a risk if he called a 3bet but i would be most concerned with AK more than anything.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

You are behind him against his range, with or without including AK (if we assume he might overvalue AK). I'd say most times you got to be behind. Certainly call, but not 100% sure I favour a shove against his likely range. If we could put him on 99, JJ, AA, AK, AJ and Q10 we are ahead equity wise, but not sure we could give him this range given the betting. Given his postion I might have reraised preflop as well.
Posted by KAM99

Vs a set how are we ahead equity wise? Vs a set we only have 30% equity...

KAM99

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn? : Vs a set how are we ahead equity wise? Vs a set we only have 30% equity...
Posted by mugsy78

Why would you highlight a section of my post and then change the equity range?? Against a set you aren't ahead. Against the range of hands he could be making this play with you aare a marginal favourite of a coin flip. Hence why shoving isn't really the best play. As the odds you can give him hands like AJ or Q10 are a little less likely. Possible of course though.

mugsy78

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn? : Why would you highlight a section of my post and then change the equity range?? Against a set you aren't ahead. Against the range of hands he could be making this play with you aare a marginal favourite of a coin flip. Hence why shoving isn't really the best play. As the odds you can give him hands like AJ or Q10 are a little less likely. Possible of course though.
Posted by KAM99

??

If you are coming to the conclision we are a slight fav in a flip situation then why would shoving be bad? If we have 53% equity as you stated than shoving would be +EV. If we was infront than I'm pretty sure we are more than a slight fav also.

I'm not saying we should shove either just to clarify.

KAM99

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn? : TBH AQ has been a hand that i always struggle with preflop. is the 3bet about seperating the small and middle pairs from the the premium pairs and AK as that is what i'm thinking makes AQ seem to get me in so much difficulty. if he did a 4bet after my 3bet then i am folding it for sure, so if he does call i will know that i'm unlikely to be against AA and KK, QQ might still be a risk if he called a 3bet but i would be most concerned with AK more than anything.
Posted by craigcu12

One thing I had to get out of was being to nitty with my 3bet range. Having played most of my poker where I could use tools like pokertracker it gave me chance to look at my own game. I found that I was too passive in some spots, and preflop and the river I was the worst for calling etc.

As for why in this spot I might 3bet. I range villians by postion and he is raising from MP and I use about a 13%-15% range on a fairly tight player fromt his postion. Meaning I'd be lookign at 22+, KJos+, KJs+, A10s+, A10os+ (13% range) and going down lower to hands like A7s+, K9s+, and QJ if at 15% of his range.

So with AQ we are ahead of that range in either case. So 3bet gives me two useful aspects. One I'm going to get an answer on some level how strong he is. Not always as sometimes you can get trapped by a call with a strong hand, but most times at this level they will 4bet a big hand and let you get off as cheap as you could. Rest of time they muck or call. If they call you are at least now the one in control of betting post flop, which I much prefer to being in a check/call situation.

I guess all in all it's a personal thing, and I don't always 3bet AQ to a MP player. Lot of time it depends ont he player and any reads I've got off him yet etc. Either way after I saw how often I came out badly in hands I was passive in compared to where I was more aggresive I did it less often. Meaning sometimes I'll let a reasonable hand go in the blinds etc just because playing OOP sucks a lot of the time. Each to their own style though, as both can get you into trouble if y ou aren't careful.

Lambert180

Villian is UTG (albeit 5handed) and has 4x'd. Unless we have reads he always uses this size I'd assume he has a pretty strong range pre so I don't like 3betting, think we're turning our hand into a bluff (that won't work pre very often).

Lambert180

Generally speaking though Craig, never 3betting AQ is....

1) pretty nitty

2) missing value

3) allowing people to put you on a ridic narrow range when u do 3bet so good players will find it easy to play perfect poker against u in 3bet pots

KAM99

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn? : ?? If you are coming to the conclision we are a slight fav in a flip situation then why would shoving be bad? If we have 53% equity as you stated than shoving would be +EV. If we was infront than I'm pretty sure we are more than a slight fav also. I'm not saying we should shove either just to clarify.
Posted by mugsy78

We are only marginal favourite if we can credit him with that wide a range of hands, and as I said I doubt in most situations he is that wide a range of hands. Sure if we can put him on this wide a range shove wouldn't be all bad, but as I suespect his range is far tighter than that it isn't really +ev move. Call flop and most likely have to c/f the turn if miss flush.

Also, I agree with lambert on the reasons for raising. To many have nitty 3bet ranges at lower limits and hence why people just fold to their 3bets a large percentage of the time. Also, he is right about the opening bet. If he don't normally open for 4x I wouldn't be 3betting either. Didn't spot that first time around, glad he did. If it is out of place I'd even consider folding the AQ preflop. Yep it's nitty, but AQ can be a hand that wins you a little or loses you a lot sooo often, and OOP too it can be a pain. Case by case basis on call/fold/3bet in this spot preflop.

77Chris91

Calling is fine pre. He has raised from UTG and AQs plays well post flop. If you 3-bet and get 4-bet your just hating life.

Call flop and re-assess turn. If you get in 150bb effective on this flop villain is gonna have AJ minimum.

craigcu12

My problem was I put too much thought into what he might do if the diamond did come on the turn without thinking about how much i would loose if that flush were to miss or the chance of drawing dead if the board were to pair.

Kingspinne	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£11.75
craigcu12	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£16.87
	Your hole cards	Q A
x	Raise		£0.40	£0.55	£27.53
Viglante	Fold
supercrazy	Fold
Kingspinne	Fold
craigcu12	Call		£0.30	£0.85	£16.57
Flop
		J 9 A
craigcu12	Check
x	Bet		£0.64	£1.49	£26.89
craigcu12	Raise		£1.68	£3.17	£14.89
x	Raise		£3.15	£6.32	£23.74
craigcu12	All-in		£14.89	£21.21	£0.00
x	Call		£12.78	£33.99	£10.96
craigcu12	Show	Q A
x	Show	A A
Turn
		J
River
		2
x	Win	Full House, Aces and Jacks	£32.59		£43.55

Lambert180

Just ask yourself this....

When you shove the flop, what do you expect him to call with?

craigcu12

it was wrong of me to jam as i've seen enough times now that micro stakes are very limited on what they will reraise with the worst hand i should have put him on was 2 pair AJ AK is not raising that's for sure.

knowing that a jam on the flop will see me only being call by very strong ones like AJ or sets it was a stupid thing to jam.

when i do make the call on the flop if the turn were to then give a diamond what would you do yourself?

KAM99

If you call and you get the diamond on the turn you will have a £9 pot and aobut £12 left. Shove or value bet, either would be ok. I wouldn't suggest checking given action as he may take a free card hoping to pair board. For me I am likely shoving hoping for the call with my big hand, and hoping he will call with what I suspect must be a good hand too given action on flop.

F_Ivanovic

The omaha brain of mine is thinking "but we block top set, let's shove because they are going to have a tough time calling even with A9 and AJ, possibly A9 too" But we aren't really deep enough for that to be a possibility and besides, I wouldn't expect any opponents at this level to be good enough to be folding 2 pair.

From a balance perspective (pretty much useless at this level) it's a great place to just flat flop. We have a deceptively strong hand where can happily call down vs aggressive villains on runouts where we miss the flush. Raising can become problematic against a good villain because they aren't continuing with that much worse. (AT and that's about it) - so we're basically turning our hand into a bluff when it doesn't need to be. Rather make this play with Ad2d where we can definitely get villain to fold out better hands. But at this level a lot of people like to chase draws (especially FD's) so if you're up against a dominating flush draw or a straight draw then it's a great idea to be getting as much money into the pot as possible.

As played I would definitely just flat. We're getting a great price and by now it's clear we are beat and that they are probably not folding if you put in another raise.

simonnatur

In Response to TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

with me having 3 other tables open at the same time i didn't get to see too much of his action post flop. his preflop range mind seemed to be a tight range so i was expecting his range preflop to be main based on strong aces KQ or pocket pairs. 

Seems to me that the limited specific reads you have, together with his stack size* and your observation on the nitty general population tendencies, build up a pretty good profile of this player.

His bet sizing absolutely screams out that he has a set, these things combined should make it clear that shoving the flop in this instance was going to be terrible.

*even if I had just joined the table I'm going to start of by assuming he has been playing competently enough to accumulate some chips until I learn more about him

CraigSG1

In Response to Re: TP+ nut flush draw, go AI or call the reraise and wait for the turn?:

Villian is UTG (albeit 5handed) and has 4x'd. Unless we have reads he always uses this size I'd assume he has a pretty strong range pre so I don't like 3betting, think we're turning our hand into a bluff (that won't work pre very often).
Posted by Lambert180

I totally agree with this. UTG and 4x is usually a sign of strength and I dont think we can get allin here and be ahead. 

We have such a strong hand that it is fine to just call here. We can still have a wide range by just calling and if he does have a set we can control the pot. And we get the benefit of keeping in all his weaker hands.