Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets

shakinaces

I probably shouldn't be raising here, but as we were 4 handed and villain is strong TAG, BB is very nitty TAG reg, so I thought I'd have a play...

I figure the call to be strongly leant to small and mid pocket pairs and unsuited AT or better, but ruling out premium hands which I believe would always be re-raised by this player.

From then on, I probably butcher this in several spots, but wanted to see peoples thoughts.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
strand	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£9.70
fleet st	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£10.05
fenchurch	Sit out
	Your hole cards	Q 7
shakinaces	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£9.70
cheapside	Fold
strand	Call		£0.25	£0.70	£9.45
fleet st	Fold
Flop
		K 10 9
strand	Check
shakinaces	Bet		£0.35	£1.05	£9.35
strand	Raise		£1.50	£2.55	£7.95
shakinaces	Call		£1.15	£3.70	£8.20
Turn
		6
strand	Bet		£2.00	£5.70	£5.95
shakinaces	Call		£2.00	£7.70	£6.20
River
		Q
strand	Bet		£4.00	£11.70	£1.95
shakinaces	Fold
strand	Muck
strand	Win		£7.12		£9.07
strand	Return		£4.00	£0.58	£13.07

I was playing 3 or 4 tables at the time and villain was on all of those tables... I'd been 1/2 potting a lot of flops so stuck with that here.

Should I give my hand away a bit more and bet full pot (or close) on flop?
Should I GII on flop when re-raised?
If call on flop is reasonable, do I assume only AdX will be check-raising me there (or another made flush) and insta-fold the turn?
After calling the turn, am I obligated to have stuck £4 in on the river, getting 3/1 on my money? 

I hadn't noticed during the game, but villain had £1.95 left - given his normal strong TAG play, wouldn't the AdX most likely be a shove when he's seen me call down this far?

Looking back now I'm starting to wonder whether I was facing a set of 9s or 10s that was possibly turning a hand into a bluff, knowing I'm nitty enough to throw away AK/AA/QQ type hands... not sure they'd have expected me to fold 2nd nuts, but then they wouldn't expect me to be that strong in this situation.

Lambert180

I'd go a bit bigger on the flop, and I'd probably just 3bet/GII on the flop, plenty of hands he might get it in with sets, 2pr, flopped straights, NFD, TP + straight draw, TP + FD etc etc. It's unlikely he's raising light on this flop.

As played I'd definitely call river

gazza127

I'd just GII on the flop personally.

One thing though:

We cannot call turn and fold river in this situation. Ever.

That my friend is just setting fire to money.

77Chris91

Pf raise is absolutely fine.

Flop - Prefer 3-bet/Gii so that turn/river cards don't kill our action.

As played - I doubt many 10nl TAG's are turning 2prs/sets into bluffs here. It's puke but I think you have made a really good fold.

Imo calling turn and folding river is not setting fire to money

shakinaces

FWIW this is one of the few players at this level that I wouldn't be surprised to know had turned their hand into a bluff here, I believe they'll have good notes on me and know that I'm definitely nitty enough to fold a lot of hands that could beat them here.

It does make a lot of sense to be all in on the flop, obvious miss with the benefit of hindsight.

My turn bet thinking was that he may bluff the flush completing, figuring I didn't have the Ace (for flatting his check raise on flop), but was likely to give up on river if I called again - obv then when he bet river I figured (in the time to decide) that it must be the Ace.

Although I do accept that a blank means I should almost always call both and my thinking should be that if I'm calling £2 on I should expect an all in on the river (or folding turn).

Still confused why oppo didn't shove river... I'd expect that pretty much 100% of the time if he had Ad?

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets:

FWIW this is one of the few players at this level that I wouldn't be surprised to know had turned their hand into a bluff here, I believe they'll have good notes on me and know that I'm definitely nitty enough to fold a lot of hands that could beat them here. It does make a lot of sense to be all in on the flop, obvious miss with the benefit of hindsight. My turn bet thinking was that he may bluff the flush completing, figuring I didn't have the Ace (for flatting his check raise on flop), but was likely to give up on river if I called again - obv then when he bet river I figured (in the time to decide) that it must be the Ace. Although I do accept that a blank means I should almost always call both and my thinking should be that if I'm calling £2 on I should expect an all in on the river (or folding turn). Still confused why oppo didn't shove river... I'd expect that pretty much 100% of the time if he had Ad?
Posted by shakinaces

Part 2 - This is why imo you can fold against some villains. Sure it's exploitable but 10nl regs aren't going to be exploiting us very often.

Part 1 - If this is the info you have, you really have to call this river now.

KAM99

I don't mind the preflop if you got very tight players on your left. My loose mode opening range is around Q7s as my minimum range from CO. But only in a tight game where I think I can open light or steal blinds a lot.

Only thing I'd say is I don't like calling turn and folding river. Short of a very unlikely card giving you a straight-flush your hand isn't going to imporove from where it is. Either you think he has the ace or you don't. He could have reraised flop with any number of hands, and sure one of them is with ace. And if he is a TAG player I'd have exected a 3bet with a strong ace vs a CO raise.

Still, I think if you call turn here you pretty much have to call the river or the turn call was made on the basis of hitting a gutshot draw (IE bad). He bet does look very much like a value bet, but call turn, call river, or fold turn for me.

Lambert180

Misread HH, forgot about turn bringing 4flush, so it is pretty puke against a tight reg. 

When people say you can't call turn and fold blank river, its nonsense. People's ranges change on every street. I agree he might stab on turn but once you call he's prob gonna give up river. He's unlikely to be bluffing and he's not value betting worse than a flush. Even then it has to be Jd cos he's not value betting 8d imo. 

I agree with Chris, prob a good, albeit tough, fold. Still think we should have GII on the flop

CraigSG1

I would def be rerasing flop and trying to get it in. We are not giving our hand away by doing this as any set/two pair pair and FD hands could do this.

As played I really cant see this being a bluff on river and would have folded also. The way the hand has gone it really looks like a value bet and would the Jd be value betting?

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets:

Misread HH, forgot about turn bringing 4flush, so it is pretty puke against a tight reg.  When people say you can't call turn and fold blank river, its nonsense. People's ranges change on every street. I agree he might stab on turn but once you call he's prob gonna give up river. He's unlikely to be bluffing and he's not value betting worse than a flush. Even then it has to be Jd cos he's not value betting 8d imo.  I agree with Chris, prob a good, albeit tough, fold. Still think we should have GII on the flop
Posted by Lambert180

Well, I say this fairly often. It's nonsense if you think of it as a rule, regardless of action, dynamic, etc., but can certainly be applied to lots of situations: Where the villain can bet both turn and river with weaker value hands than ours or when the villain can be given credit for bluffing two or three streets.

BorinLoner

"I'd been 1/2 potting a lot of flops so stuck with that here.

Should I give my hand away a bit more and bet full pot (or close) on flop?"


Why do you think that betting bigger on a K9T single-suit flop would give your hand away? Betting the same amount on any flop, regardless of the texture or the range you're representing is definitely an issue.

For example, if we hold AA on a J73r flop, why would we bet the same as on a K9Tss flop?


On a dry board, we want to make it cheap to bluff and also easier to get paid. Half-pot can be excessive on really dry boards, even 100BB deep, particularly in 3-bet pots.

On wet boards we can bet more for value because it's more likely that our opponent has a hand to pay us with. That means we should also bluff bigger. Of course wet boards, which we're more likely to be called on, are bad boards to bluff on if we have little equity.

If we're not betting bigger on boards like this when we have the effective nuts, we're missing value in the long run.


Insert usual villain and dynamic dependent spiel here.

LARSON7

I'd call shakin, with  the reraise on the flop, he either has the Ace of Diamonds for a flopped flush like yourself.

Or he has something like a set.

If you had put the players name in i would have been able to tell you if the player was able to re -raise the nut flush draw here, Ace D with something like the 10c.

Most players at 10nl play draws quite passivly. While Ace D is a part of his range here, it's a lot wider than just that. He is going to make the same bet with Jd,xd. As played up to the turn id just jam the turn.

(if i hadn't raised the flop), i quite like calling the flop, raising the turn.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets:

I'd call shakin, with  the reraise on the flop, he either has the Ace of Diamonds for a flopped flush like yourself. Or he has something like a set. If you had put the players name in i would have been able to tell you if the player was able to re -raise the nut flush draw here, Ace D with something like the 10c. Most players at 10nl play draws quite passivly. While Ace D is a part of his range here, it's a lot wider than just that. He is going to make the same bet with Jd,xd. As played up to the turn id just jam the turn. (if i hadn't raised the flop), i quite like calling the flop, raising the turn.
Posted by LARSON7

Raising the turn is really, really bad.

You force villain to fold all his bluffs.

You value own yourself when he has Ad.

LARSON7

In Response to Re: Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets:

In Response to Re: Lucky flop(?), tie myself in knots through the streets : Raising the turn is really, really bad. You force villain to fold all his bluffs. You value own yourself when he has Ad.
Posted by 77Chris91

You are right i had misread the board, thought the Diamond dropped on the river.

shakinaces

Borin,

I've been playing around with bet sizing a bit after reading a few articles recently. The flops had tended to be very dry which is why I'd been on c.1/2 pot cbets and then (as per thread title) I convinced myself that villain would have seen this and reacted differently to me changing tack. If I'd been playing for longer by this stage, I like to think I'd have been more in the flow of sizing relative to the dryness/wetness of each board (ie if I was betting, then bet closer to full pot on this board, irrespective of hole cards).

This would be a move from my more standard c.2/3 bet for almost all cbets (except where player specific 1/2 pot of full pot cbets are warranted).

Larson,

The villain does post on the boards quite regularly which is why I kept the name out. I'd suggest they are one of the best five players at these levels though and definitely capable of outplaying me!