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It's All About the Percentages...
Slipwater
Member Posts: 3,663
I could look to Google, I guess, but I'm eating lunch so my hands are full... besides, it's more interesting asking you lot.
Are you statistically more or less likely to hit a set or trips on the flop?
Are you statistically more or less likely to hit a set or trips on the flop?
Comments
(that's without taking into account unknowns like home many times you play a hand with a pocket pair (so you can hit a set) against how may times you play unmatched pocket cards (so you can hit trips)
is it more likely you find 2 of the same in the box of 2 or the box of 3
It's my lunch break - I set the brain aside until 2pm!
but mainly because I am on my mobile and lost my first response
otherwise you may have had more sugar coating
The following assumes you see a flop with 100% of all hands;
5.88% of the time you will be dealt a pocket pair, 11.8% of the time that pair will improve to a set on the flop.
Therefore 5.88% x 11.8% = 0.69% of the time, or 1/144 hands, you will flop a set.
The other 94.12% of the time you will be dealt two unpaired hands. 1.35% of those times you will flop trips.
So 94.12% x 1.35% = 1.27% of the time, or 1/78 hands, you will flop trips.
Therefore trips come along roughly twice as often as sets.
In practice there's no exact answer. It will vary from player to player according to how often they like to see flops. Nits who fold almost all unpaired hands pre-flop will see sets far more often than they will see trips. Loose pre-flop players who see a ton of flops will find themselves looking at trips far more frequently than the nits.