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The Probability Thread

Sky_PokerSky_Poker Member Posts: 2,715
edited March 2014 in Poker Chat

Hi

We thought we'd start this interesting thread to discuss probability / problem scenarios for things outside of poker with the hope that discussing these might help people understand probability in poker. It's also a fun subject to discuss (for some anyway!)

So for example have you heard of these?:

1) The Monty Hall Problem - see here
2) The Birthday Problem - see here

Do you think there are any other probability scenarious commonly misunderstood in the world of poker?

Thanks
Sky Poker 
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2014
    I spent four days convincing engineers on an industrial placement that the Monty Hall problem was real, to the point that they co-created a spreadsheet to prove me wrong. The spreadsheet proved the problem was correct after 2m+ iterations. I've seen much better ways to describe it than when I was taught it though.

    The Birthday one is a classic that still boggles your mind even when you understand the maths behind it. The problem with probabilities of that one is that it can statistically take you a very long time to come across a group of 20 people where it is true!
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2014
    As a very rudimental demonstration I've used before when coaching, is approximating the % of a poker outcome to that of a dice roll - if you lose AA vs KK aipf, its the equivalent if rolling a dice with someone, and if they roll a 6 they win, and any other number you win. You don't lose your temper when they roll a 6, because you understand its a very real and potential outcome in that isolated event.
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  • DAVEYZZDAVEYZZ Member Posts: 1,651
    edited March 2014
    Yep always swap....good example is deal or no deal when 2 boxes left and one has 250k in it..you have to swap!
    Never seen the birthday one...I will try it at poker this weekend!
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2014
    Daveyzz, Deal or No Deal is not affected by the Monty Hall theory. The host has no input as to opening a box that holds a non-jackpot prize, and when there is no external influence the probabilities remain unchanged at 50%.
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  • SlipwaterSlipwater Member Posts: 3,663
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    Daveyzz, Deal or No Deal is not affected by the Monty Hall theory. The host has no input as to opening a box that holds a non-jackpot prize, and when there is no external influence the probabilities remain unchanged at 50%.
    Posted by CoxyLboro
    Very true, Coxy, but psychologically most people would be inclined to swap. There is an inherent belief that a lot of contestants carry (based on nothing concrete whatsoever) that the money has to be in the other box.
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  • Sky_PokerSky_Poker Member Posts: 2,715
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    As a very rudimental demonstration I've used before when coaching, is approximating the % of a poker outcome to that of a dice roll - if you lose AA vs KK aipf, its the equivalent if rolling a dice with someone, and if they roll a 6 they win, and any other number you win. You don't lose your temper when they roll a 6, because you understand its a very real and potential outcome in that isolated event.
    Posted by CoxyLboro
    Great example.
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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2014
    Probability is a vile, near untameable beast. I still recalling arguing until blue in the face with my Year 6 teacher about the likelihood of an event - something along the lines of her insisting that it was a 0% probability that the sun would rise in the North Pole during winter. I think I argued that cosmic occurances could potenially change that, and that a catastrophic meteor impact could change the Earth's axial tilt sufficiently to do so, or that the Sun may displace due to a black hole etc etc. Just because these events are highly unlikely does not allow you to say its a 0% probability!

    Pedantic perhaps, but if you teach kids the wrong thing from the start...
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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 172,821
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread : Very true, Coxy, but psychologically most people would be inclined to swap. There is an inherent belief that a lot of contestants carry (based on nothing concrete whatsoever) that the money has to be in the other box.
    Posted by Slipwater
    Now I'm interested.

    The Birthday one is incred, I still can't suss why it works, but it does.      
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  • Sky_PokerSky_Poker Member Posts: 2,715
    edited March 2014

    On the subject of percentages...

    ... isn't it odd when footballers (or whoever) say "we gave it 110% today".




    Here is a glass - please fill it to 110% :)
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  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited March 2014


    even though the probability of something is next to zero, given long enough, it will definitely happen.



     




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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    even though the probability of something is next to zero, given long enough, it will definitely happen.  
    Posted by aussie09
    Not true - it may still never happen, even with an infinite amount of time! Sure, the chance of it never happening might be infinitely small but it's still a possibility!
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited March 2014
    I taught the missus the monty hall problem only this week - didn't quite work though because she wanted the goat instead of the car!!
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,640
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    I taught the missus the monty hall problem only this week - didn't quite work though because she wanted the goat instead of the car!!
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    ...you are kidding right?
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  • SwogSwog Member Posts: 487
    edited March 2014
    I'm in my 3rd year of a mathematics degree so when I get home later I'll see what I can think of :) 
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  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread : Not true - it may still never happen, even with an infinite amount of time! Sure, the chance of it never happening might be infinitely small but it's still a possibility!
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    it is true.  given an infinite number of events, it is very true.  in fact, definite.





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  • chicknMeltchicknMelt Member Posts: 1,159
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread : it is true.  given an infinite number of events, it is very true.  in fact, definite.
    Posted by aussie09
    what about if there is a button I can press (and only me) that will blow up the world.

    there is a small chance the world will get blown up

    but it may never happen, and eventually I will die.



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  • VespaPXVespaPX Member Posts: 12,487
    edited March 2014
    For those of you that have a lot of time on your hands.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability
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  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread : what about if there is a button I can press (and only me) that will blow up the world. there is a small chance the world will get blown up but it may never happen, and eventually I will die.
    Posted by chicknMelt

    hi CM,

    unfortunately your life is finite.  if there were an unending line of CMs one of your descendents would press the button.

    but please don't just yet.




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  • UnknownUnknown
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    On the subject of percentages... ... isn't it odd when footballers (or whoever) say "we gave it 110% today". Here is a glass - please fill it to 110% :)
    Posted by Sky_Poker
    You can actually fill a container to slightly above its geometric volume with fluid.

    http://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/45068/how-far-can-water-rise-above-the-edge-of-a-glass

    I can't manage 110% of a glass that size, but maybe about 101.5%!
     
    For a standard shot glass, you could be looking at ~10% increase though!
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,412
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread:
    In Response to Re: The Probability Thread : You can actually fill a container to slightly above its geometric volume with fluid. http://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/45068/how-far-can-water-rise-above-the-edge-of-a-glass I can't manage 110% of a glass that size, but maybe about 101.5%!   For a standard shot glass, you could be looking at ~10% increase though!
    Posted by CoxyLboro
    But the real question is... can you not only fill it to that % but then carry the glass to the table you are sat at without spilling any of it?
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