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aintree hurdle

THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
edited March 2014 in Sports & Betting Chat
what price do we expect hurricane fly to open up at for thursday for the aintree hurdle? im not 100% certain what im doing on betfair cos i dont use the site but ive just noticed somebody who i presume is a bet layer offering around 9/1 on the exchange, anyone who uses betfair can you confirm this please before i make my move, 9/1 seems hideously big to me, im gonna forgive it the cheltehman run as i dont think it loves it round there even though its won 2 champion hurdles there, also were set for a bit of rain down aintree to this week which is a big plus so i think 9/1 hurrciane fly is an each way bet to nothing if alls well with the horse.
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited March 2014
    In Response to aintree hurdle:
    what price do we expect hurricane fly to open up at for thursday for the aintree hurdle? im not 100% certain what im doing on betfair cos i dont use the site but ive just noticed somebody who i presume is a bet layer offering around 9/1 on the exchange, anyone who uses betfair can you confirm this please before i make my move, 9/1 seems hideously big to me, im gonna forgive it the cheltehman run as i dont think it loves it round there even though its won 2 champion hurdles there, also were set for a bit of rain down aintree to this week which is a big plus so i think 9/1 hurrciane fly is an each way bet to nothing if alls well with the horse.
    Posted by THEROCK573
    Yes you will get what it says,but don't forget ,9/1 maybe the win price offered,what is the place price,because that is a different bet!
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: aintree hurdle:
    In Response to aintree hurdle : Yes you will get what it says,but don't forget ,9/1 maybe the win price offered,what is the place price,because that is a different bet!
    Posted by wynne1938
    oh theres a snag, its not letting me go each way. il just wait and see what ante post prices are, dont know why they arnt up yet to be honest.
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited March 2014
    You have to place 2 different bets,there is a win market and a place maeket.
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    £16 @ 12/1 right now
    another £11 queuing up @ 10/1

    Market not really formed yet on there

    or was that you snapping up 22 for £50???

    Money may come late if conditions are changing, back-to-lay option...
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    If you're new to the exchanges and you're looking to back a horse at these prices.....

    I think (roughly)-

    0.8 pts win

    2.2 pts place

    roughly mimics an each way bet at the bookies.

    Disregard this for higher prices as theres generally a bigger discrepancy so a smaller stake can still produce a significant yield.

    Exercise caution in the place markets, betfair doesnt cut the places paid like the bookies do.
    (eg - 8 horse race, 1 NR - still 3 places on betfair)

    so the market reflects that obviously
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
    edited March 2014
     there dosent appear to be an option to back hurricane fly each way just currently 12/1 to win, also why is there a somebody trying to lay grandeout at 6/5 the cheeky t***s?  i dont really understand this betfair crack, im just going to wait to ante post prices are up on paddy power and save myself a headache,
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    You cant bet each way on the exchange.

    Only option is 'to win' or 'to place'

    The 2 bets i posted should mimic an each way bet more or less
    (for horses around say 7/1 - 12/1 quarter odds)

    Trouble with ante post on the exchange is theres hardly any liquidity right now.

    That will constantly improve until the race starts.

    'To place' is not up at all yet for the reasons I stated before.


    Im not really an expert on horse racing, I just like betting on it.

    If you plan to bet over £16 on the aintree hurdle your hands are tied anyway.

    If in your opinion 12/1 (win only) is a big price then thats another matter.
    You'll have to top up the place bet closer to the time.

    If in your opinion it will shorten to a few points lower than 12s then you could end up with a virtually free bet on the horse to win / place through a bit of trading.


    Problem for me is that I'm not so interested in the big races/big names in racing so I couldnt say wether this is a good bet or not
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    Also I noticed from some bets you posted over the weekend that your stakes are a lot higher than mine and 
    clearly you have an interest in horse racing / sports bets.

    I think you should definitely have an account on there / familiarise yourself with how it works cos it will open up lost more options for you (laying, trading, in running, tighter books than you get in the bookies ((less 5% deduction)))
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    If i've not bored you to sleep yet I would add 1 extra thing.

    All the money over 12/1 has been matched on there and the £16 @ 12/1 has been there for an hour or so at least.

    I would assume that somebody on there would have snapped it up by now so my advice may be to keep your powder try until the morning.

    Apologies in advance for "Gamble landed, hurricane fly by 100+ lengths"
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
    edited March 2014
    In Response to Re: aintree hurdle:
    Also I noticed from some bets you posted over the weekend that your stakes are a lot higher than mine and  clearly you have an interest in horse racing / sports bets. I think you should definitely have an account on there / familiarise yourself with how it works cos it will open up lost more options for you (laying, trading, in running, tighter books than you get in the bookies ((less 5% deduction)))
    Posted by ff55hh
    i do have an account mate i just dont use it, i dont wanna get into laying etc cos im just a sports better purely for a fun, its not my living although i probably gamble more than ur average man.

    il give u the lay of the century though if ur into that sort of thing, long run in the grand national, punters will most likely pile into this on the day, currently 14/1 probs go off 8/1 i reckon, now u would get stung big time if it won so u would need plenty of money to lay this but it has no chance for me, obv the class horse of the race but its jumpings poor over a normal fence so i dread to think what its going to be like going round aintree in the national over 4 mile. if it makes it round the course it will be a massive acievement. id be happy to lay this at 16/1 and be very confiedent of collecting.
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    I could back it @ 15 there now so it wouldnt be expensive if I lost cos I'd be trading out at a lower price.
    There is a lot of support for it already.


    Ive had some expensive ones in the past (using my lay all system)


    This fuxker sticks in the mind, even 8 years on, so I'd only be laying at 5 or below.

    If the horse is over 5 I look to the place markets to lay or just no bet.
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    Also nobody took that 12/1 on hurricane fly last night, bits and pieces @ 19 and below atm.
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  • THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
    edited March 2014
    im a winning poker player, been sports betting for around 10 years yet im still thick as pig sh** with numbers so most of this stuff in the exchange goes right over my head :-(
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  • ff55hhff55hh Member Posts: 395
    edited March 2014
    Tidy record fair play, my bets on the exchange is more about reading form than being good with numbers.
    Probably the same as poker where maths helps but its not essential.
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