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Should I be mucking it in this situation?
This post is more about the situation rather than how the hand played out. Villian is a decent reg who I have played a few times and as I had position I had been 3 betting them a lot and finally picked up a hand.
I find myself in this kind of situation with big pairs a lot on connected boards and I am always thinking about the kind of hands that would check raise the flop. They could have nothing and just be trying to outplay me on a board that I may give up on. They could have a massive draw and are happy to play a big pot with it, so I can call the check raise and assess the turn. Or they could have the set that the check raise usually signifies at this level.
So the question, am I overthinking the hand? Should I just be folding in these types of spots and accept they have the set? That feels nitty but maybe being a nit is the right play. I dont know, I am confused!!!!
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietra | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £6.78 | |
| lisa1962 | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £9.90 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Villian | Raise | £0.30 | £0.45 | £8.63 | |
| dabossman | Raise | £0.70 | £1.15 | £10.08 | |
| GeordieRob | Fold | ||||
| junior10 | Fold | ||||
| Pietra | Fold | ||||
| lisa1962 | Fold | ||||
| Villian | Call | £0.40 | £1.55 | £8.23 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Villian | Check | ||||
| dabossman | Bet | £0.90 | £2.45 | £9.18 | |
| Villian | Raise | £2.40 | £4.85 | £5.83 | |
| dabossman | Call | £1.50 | £6.35 | £7.68 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Villian | Bet | £2.70 | £9.05 | £3.13 | |
| dabossman | Call | £2.70 | £11.75 | £4.98 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| Villian | All-in | £3.13 | £14.88 | ||
Comments
Flop bet is fine.
Now the raise on the flop is generally going to be one of two things. Either a big hand such as two pair or a set, or draws such as 10 8, Q 10, hearts etc. You seem to have played the reg for a while. We should have an idea if he calls for his draws or if he plays them aggressively. This can help us make our decision on the flop or on later streets.
If I don't know the villain I may call the raise on the flop and reassess on the turn, however it is a little more difficult with stack sizes.
The turn sizing is odd from villain. To be perfectly honest I have no idea what it means as i dont have any reads, however as played when we call the turn we can never ever fold the river when it bricks off. That'd be setting fire to money.
Trouble is that we have the blocker to the nut flush draw too which limits his heart draws a little. Id be more inclined to think he has a set or straight draw. If I had to put money on it, I reckon he has 10 8 and got there on the turn and didnt want to lose his customer
By taking it to 10BB with marginal hands it suddenly requires a lot more folds from the villain.
I can't add to play down the streets as Gazza has put everything I'd read on it. T8 or a set and should probably find a fold on the turn unless there are specific reads/info about the villain.
I'd probably end up calling off and thinking it was the missed straight draw / flush draw / top pair though lol
8 10 raised from UTG? Unlikely JJ would be getting it in pre-flop if you have been 3-betting loads.
Only behind to 9's and 2's.
Folding is a mistake imo.
The reason we go to say 9xBB is because it still gives us a great price to taking it down pre, while not pricing him in to call with ATC (and bringing other players along too). Also, remember even when we're 3betting light, it shuold never be with the plan 'I'm gonna 3bet light and if he calls I'm done with the hand', so when we're 3betting light it's because we think we can take the pot off him postflop a lot of the time too, in which case we want to take down a bigger pot. Going smaller would force us to go for smaller with all our value hands too and just opens up a world of trouble for us imo.
If someone is effectively min 3-betting me all day long **** yes I'm 4-bet/GII JJ for value. It doesn't necessarily fold out all the marginal hands that you beat. We need to adjust our 4-bet value range is someone is 3-betting us constantly.
Even if we include 108s were losing to 10 combos. I still think there are enough FD + SD + 1pr combos to profitably GII on the turn.
If focusing on more calls from the UTG player, surely this is a good thing if we figure them to call and play OOP - where we believe we can outplay them - or 4-bet strong hands and let us get away cheaply (until / unless we believe the villain has adapated to combat our frequent 3-bet and started 4-betting light).
Plus with a 3-bet pot and 100BB stacks you'd only be looking at 60% c-bet and turn bet to set yourself up for less than a pot sized river bet to still GII if that is the plan (assuming a 7BB 3-bet), without having to commit more chips pre-flop.
I suppose this is a similar logic to the evolving fashion of min-raising buttons or BvB to make it more +EV to steal with more frequency - which is effectively what the OP is doing a lot of the time if they are 3-betting as regularly as the post suggests, just happens that this time they actually have it.
If table positions were different this would probably change - ie if villain was button and we were SB then it would make far less sense to give them the odds to call and see flop in position (plus BB likely to call a wider range if they figure the BU to be stealing / SB re-stealing), so 9-10BB would seem more sensible.
Just another way of looking at... I've been trying to improve my own approach to 3-betting in the last week or so, which may have resulted in misguided new concepts in my head!