Can I ever do anything different here?

jdsallstar

ok it's the mini turbo from last night and there's 22 left and the below hand happens. Villain hasn't been doing anything out of line for the time I've been at the table (maybe 2/3 rounds) and I've no reason other than to think they have a strong hand. My image shouldn't be too out of line either. I cant quite remember but I imagine I had a top 10 stack at the time.

To me I cant fold here and flatting doesn't seem like a profitable move either. Is it just one of those things you have to commit to playing a 19bb stack? What range of hands can I put them on?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
x	Small blind		2000.00	2000.00	62356.50
wanturmo28	Big blind		4000.00	6000.00	152421.54
	Your hole cards	J J
I_Will	Fold
jdsallstar	Raise		8000.00	14000.00	68370.00
hey_boots	Fold
x	Raise		26000.00	40000.00	36356.50
wanturmo28	Fold
jdsallstar	All-in		68370.00	108370.00	0.00
x	All-in		36356.50	144726.50	0.00
jdsallstar	Unmatched bet		12013.50	132713.00	12013.50
x	Show	A A
jdsallstar	Show	J J
Flop
		5 2 2
Turn
		4
River
		7
x	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and 2s	132713.00		132713.00

F_Ivanovic

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
JcJs	36.58%	20,984,510	1,881,832
JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK	63.42%	37,064,298	1,881,832

This is the range of hands I would put a standard player that doesn't get out of line on. As you can see our equity isn't great and even supposing we add a few combination of bluff hands (All A4s) our equity is still only 40%. We would have to add in TT and AQ for our equity to reach 48.25%.

hhyftrftdr

I think it is just about possible to get away from this pre flop, as ridiculous as that might sound. Does seem crazy to raise fold JJ from the cut off with less than 20 bigs, but here is my reasoning...

For me, the crucial aspect of the hand is his stack size. We have been 3bet out of a 15bb stack, from the worst table position. They are almost never doing this with something that has JJ in great shape. I'm quite certain we can rule out AK, which would be the best we could hope for.

When we go over the top, we are getting looked up. And they will nearly always have made premium hands. I genuinely think (with no real reads or history) that we can narrow them down to aces or kings in this spot.

FWIW, had they just shipped their 15bb stack pre, I'd be snapping with JJ as their range for going all in over a cutoff open is/should be any pair, high card combos, high SCs, Ax, even some random air they think they can get through. Obvs we might be dominated the odd time, flipping occasionally but mostly dominating that range. Their range for 3betting a 15bb stack from the blinds essentially plays their hand face up IMO, and I'm not a big fan of their play. But I've done much worse

QQ would be interesting in this example....

jdsallstar

Cheers guys!

Yh being 3 bet by the sb blind for half their stack sent the alarm bells going off lol  

Ever an argument for flatting out of interest?
 
To me it's not a good idea flatting and having a third of my stack in the middle to then fold to a flop that has an overcard. Given that, even it is a low flop I could still be behind a lot of the time too and they're shipping virtually 100% of the time anyway. Am I on the right lines?

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Can I ever do anything different here?:

Cheers guys! Yh being 3 bet by the sb blind for half their stack sent the alarm bells going off lol   Ever an argument for flatting out of interest?   To me it's not a good idea flatting and having a third of my stack in the middle to then fold to a flop that has an overcard. Given that, even it is a low flop I could still be behind a lot of the time too and they're shipping virtually 100% of the time anyway. Am I on the right lines?
Posted by jdsallstar

I don't think so. Not with JJ anyway. I think if you did flat, it's with the intention of calling the inevitable all in on the flop regardless of the board. But this means you have to put them on a much broader range pre flop. I just don't think we can do that in this example.

jdsallstar

yeah that's what i thought. Cheers

ZIPPY146

In Response to Re: Can I ever do anything different here?:

yeah that's what i thought. Cheers
Posted by jdsallstar

 hi jd,if u had time  to do maths  and analyse the situation,you might get away from it..still unlikely.it wasnt your tournament life,only the tightest of knits would have folded.Some interesting answers though...

F_Ivanovic

I don't know how you can rule out AK hhyftrftdr? I've seen people make this play with AK just as much as they make it with QQ - AA. In fact out of all these hands AA is the least likely hand I suspect to be up against because their 3bet is quite large and someone with AA is going to defintely want a call and might make it a little smaller (then again, sometimes people are too lazy to think about that and just see a hand they are happy with and raise to w/e) - As I showed though even if we do include AK in their range we are not in good enough shape to GII.

Interesting you call it off though if they make it a shove. This takes me back to that thread a while back where DoubleAAA and I agreed on a point that sometimes it can be a funky idea to raise less than AI with a short stack. (eg. with 12BB's facing a min-raise to make it 5.5BB's instead of jamming. The play looks super strong and might generate more folds than a shove would. Mostly it's best doing this OOP so we can't be exploited post-flop as we are first to act and can just jam almost any flop to avoid being exploited. I seem to remember you saying it wouldn't work, but here you are putting an opponent on a range as tight as KK and AA!! just because they make a less than AI raise.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Can I ever do anything different here?:

I don't know how you can rule out AK hhyftrftdr? I've seen people make this play with AK just as much as they make it with QQ - AA. In fact out of all these hands AA is the least likely hand I suspect to be up against because their 3bet is quite large and someone with AA is going to defintely want a call and might make it a little smaller (then again, sometimes people are too lazy to think about that and just see a hand they are happy with and raise to w/e) - As I showed though even if we do include AK in their range we are not in good enough shape to GII. Interesting you call it off though if they make it a shove. This takes me back to that thread a while back where DoubleAAA and I agreed on a point that sometimes it can be a funky idea to raise less than AI with a short stack. (eg. with 12BB's facing a min-raise to make it 5.5BB's instead of jamming. The play looks super strong and might generate more folds than a shove would. Mostly it's best doing this OOP so we can't be exploited post-flop as we are first to act and can just jam almost any flop to avoid being exploited. I seem to remember you saying it wouldn't work, but here you are putting an opponent on a range as tight as KK and AA!! just because they make a less than AI raise.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

In my experience, this is almost never AK. It can be AK, but is much much more heavily weighted towards made premium hands. Especially out of the small blind.

This is where the range comes in. It's a cutoff open, so although at this stage hero is unlikely to be opening random junk, they can still be raising decent hands that can't call a shove for most of their stack. Assuming SB is a reasonable player, they can ship a varied combo of hands here with fantastic fold equity. Obvs table image/dynamic will play a part in just how light you can move in here. So for me, JJ is an easy call in a readless vacuum as it mostly crushes the range of a 3bet 15bb jammer.

This is why it's awful to do it with AA! And yes, in a Sky 5 quid BH, I think this play is essentially turning our hand face up. Maybe I'm cynical, but I don't think the average participant in one of these is gonna pick up 910s (or w/e), and think to themselves 'I could raise this instead of shoving and make myself look ridiculously strong and poss fold out hands that crush me'. Looks like a clear case of a villain picking up AA, obvs wanting the action but scared of losing his customer so just makes a random raise with no consideration of stack sizes, table position, strength of hand, range etc etc.

All IMO of course. Hope you like my colours