Flat or raise the river?

freshfish1

Here is a hand from a few days ago. Only played with the guy this session so not specific reads.
We flop nice and the board pairs on the river and the villain leads. What is our play? Flat as we are scared of the boat? Raise because we think he has a lower flush or worse?
Should I be betting bigger on flop and turn?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Villain	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£25.77
x	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£10.39
	Your hole cards	K 10
x	Fold
x	Fold
Hero	Raise		£0.35	£0.50	£21.64
x	Fold
Villain	Call		£0.30	£0.80	£25.47
x	Fold
Flop
		4 A 5
Villain	Check
Hero	Bet		£0.40	£1.20	£21.24
Villain	Call		£0.40	£1.60	£25.07
Turn
		7
Villain	Check
Hero	Bet		£1.20	£2.80	£20.04
Villain	Call		£1.20	£4.00	£23.87
River
		7
Villain	Bet		£2.00

Hero?

grantorino

any opinion of villain at all?

If he seems anyway decent its a flat imo. Even if you think he has a lower flush its tough for him to call a raise with worse

freshfish1

In Response to Re: Flat or raise the river?:

any opinion of villain at all? If he seems anyway decent its a flat imo. Even if you think he has a lower flush its tough for him to call a raise with worse
Posted by grantorino

Unfortunately no. I'd only been sat down 5 mins and hadn't seen him get involved really:( 

Lambert180

I'd go bigger on the flop fwiw.

I really can't see what we're beat by... AA doesn't flat pre and 44/55/77 are all raising flop or turn. So we're putting him solely on A7? maybe 57?

Readless I'm 100% raising here, probably to about £6, if he ships then we hate life and probably have to fold cos I he won't have any bluffs (imo) and won't be 3betting river with Q high flush (or worse) for value, but I think there's definitely value in raising.

CraigSG1

Raising river all day, every day and twice on sundays!

Although, if he ships then its a sigh fold. What can he have thats worse but this is very, very unlikely. The only hand he can likely have that beats us is A7. 

freshfish1

Seems the general consensus is it to raise. I did - but the hand didn't finish there; what now?

Hero	Raise		£6.00	£12.00	£14.04
Villain	Raise		£12.00	£24.00	£9.87

Villain min raises back but not a shove. It smacked of a pair on the flop with maybe a seven in the hand, ie a7 or 57 as people suggest but do his check calls on the flop and turn suggest that? A 5 with or without a diamond should fold imo and personally I'd ditch an ace with a raggy kicker.

So, do I call this min raise given then pot odds of 4:1? Fold because it seems obvious I'm beat despite the good odds? Or even shove as I'll only have £8 left if I call anyway and he just might call with a worse hand? (This option is defo the worst imo but interested to hear anyones thoughts)

Swog

I think you played the hand fine to me, except maybe i'd go a little bigger on the flop. On the river you done exactly what I would have done, but now he raises again i hate life. I don't think i'd shove over the top, but i'm not sure i'd be folding for that price either. The spot is just gross and better you than me lol.

grantorino

Still don't think you should raise river. The only realistic hand he can call with that we beat is Q9dd, he needs to think you raise a j hi flush or worse on a paired board to call it off. I wouldn't rule out a flopped set as quickly as some here 

It's tricky now imo as if we think he's bad enough to call small flushes it's hard to ruleout him going broke with them either. I think it's prob a fold tbh. If you call you need 20% to raise you need~ 32% assuming he never folds. Hard expect we are good over 30% so call better than raise imo if you are continuing

freshfish1

Well here's the result: End of thread.

Thanks for the responses; seems it didn't completely butcher it and got a little unlucky on the river:(

I just called this bet and he had the A7 for the boat as people said was possible.

F_Ivanovic

Definitely raising river although if villain 3/4-pot it I would be more inclined to just flat. There's just not many FH's in his range - and if you think he just always folds worse if you raise river then perhaps you need to bluff more in that spot.

When he comes over the top OTR I would only consider shoving and folding against most villains. This is because most villains aren't capable of making this play as a bluff - in addition to this most villains will either be raising ONLY hands that beat you or there will be some really bad villains will be raising all flushes and possibly all 7x hands too. (in which case we should shove because we beat more hands than we lose to and they won't be raise/folding)

As a standard tho it's a pretty clear raise/fold.

Lambert180

Yeah as per my first reply it's a definite raise/fold on the river imo no matter what size he makes it.

freshfish1

Thanks for the other responses Lambert and Ivanovic:)

At the time I thought he had it but just wasn't savvy enough to lay it down, even for what seemed like a good price. It was still 60BB though.

You've pretty much nailed it Ivan when you say that most villains down here will only raise with a hand that beats you and as my journey through the world of micro stakes progresses I can't recall seeing any players who can either 3b bluff the river or who actually do it without the nuts.

Point taken and lesson learned thx:)

grantorino

I am obv assigning villain a narrower range than most here. I'm prob wrong, I have played very little in last year

What do people think villains range is

A. When he donks river

B. that calls a river raise

C. That 3bets river

Also while I agree villain is almost never bluffing i don't should be a choice of shove or fold when he 3bets given the significantly less equity required to call than to shove.

freshfish1

I thought at the time his donking range could be quite wide ranging from busted draws trying to steal the pot fairly cheaply, luckboxed 7's due to calling flop with a draw that contained a 7, and of course slow played sets that boated up and the case a7 or even 57. I'm beating everything but the boats and as played up to that point villain has given no real indication of those hands as its played very passively. I expected worse flushes to at least call and possibly if he has a 7 somehow for trips. If hes really tpgk hands might also call. However when 3bet vs an unknown i think we can narrow his range to badly played boats (imo snyway) and q high flushes. The minraise was just too small for me (at the time of playing anyway) to fold even though i was hating life and fairly sure i was beat. At least i got to see the hand so hopefully i can make better plays against him next time:)