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Flopped set vs confused river
shakinaces
Member Posts: 1,590
I'd hoped to keep this small mainly because UTG+1 was a station and I was happy that if they'd come along for the ride I'd be likely to get paid for the times I hit my set / would have to shut down when I miss.
UTG was the only one the played back though. I don't know how many tables they were playing, but were on 3 (of 6) tables I was playing at the time. Doesn't play a huge range of hands pre-flop and afaik the limp call tends to be fit-or-fold type hands (low/mid pairs or suited connectors). He usually sits with a full stack, but had taken a couple of hits in the last orbit or so.
Given the f-o-f thought, I kept the bets fairly small on flop and turn in the hope that mid pairs may continue calling.
Then he befuzzles me with the massive donk (?) lead river. Only obvious hand I could pick from pre-flop range is 55 or a flopped flush that maybe thought I was c-betting AcQx/AcKx sort of hand which would likely check behind but may call a donk.
Am I overthinking things and should this be a snap call?
UTG was the only one the played back though. I don't know how many tables they were playing, but were on 3 (of 6) tables I was playing at the time. Doesn't play a huge range of hands pre-flop and afaik the limp call tends to be fit-or-fold type hands (low/mid pairs or suited connectors). He usually sits with a full stack, but had taken a couple of hits in the last orbit or so.
Given the f-o-f thought, I kept the bets fairly small on flop and turn in the hope that mid pairs may continue calling.
Then he befuzzles me with the massive donk (?) lead river. Only obvious hand I could pick from pre-flop range is 55 or a flopped flush that maybe thought I was c-betting AcQx/AcKx sort of hand which would likely check behind but may call a donk.
Am I overthinking things and should this be a snap call?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SB | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £9.89 | |
| BB | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £2.26 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| UTG | Call | £0.10 | £0.25 | £5.59 | |
| UTG+1 | Call | £0.10 | £0.35 | £9.78 | |
| shakinaces | Raise | £0.35 | £0.70 | £16.22 | |
| BU | Fold | ||||
| SB | Fold | ||||
| BB | Fold | ||||
| UTG | Call | £0.25 | £0.95 | £5.34 | |
| UTG+1 | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| UTG | Check | ||||
| shakinaces | Bet | £0.60 | £1.55 | £15.62 | |
| UTG | Call | £0.60 | £2.15 | £4.74 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| UTG | Check | ||||
| shakinaces | Bet | £1.20 | £3.35 | £14.42 | |
| UTG | Call | £1.20 | £4.55 | £3.54 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| UTG | All-in | £3.54 | £8.09 | £0.00 | |
| shakinaces | |||||
Comments
1. Your hand may still be good.
2. If you lose make a note of how the hand played and what he considered strong enough to donk the river.
3. Use these in the future as he will likely do the same thing again, either way knowledge is potentially more money in your pocket over time and 35BB is cheap enough for me:)
Everything missed.
I bet bigger on the turn
No it wasn't you Craig - surprised you figure it might be in a hand that limp / calls UTG!
FWIW all the bad river outcomes I've seen in the last week or so made me level myself into folding this.
Bar this hand, I can't recall seeing an out of position shove like this lately which doesn't have a nutted (or effectively nutted) hand that the oppo is scared they won't get value for if I check behind.
Bizarrely, they then showed JJ for a bluff that made no sense to me whatsoever and makes me rethink my previous player notes! Perhaps they were just tilting at the time and it was a one-off.
Lambert - re: turn bet-size, this was me confusing myself (?) due to stack sizes, if we were both 100BB in this hand I'd have bet bigger for sure. Almost wanted to size such that villain may think he had some fold equity for shoving turn (with Ac or because he thought I was at it) but knowing that if he just calls it's a sensible looking 3/4 pot river bet for stacks (on a non-club river).
This may well be a value-losing leak though on my part (see my AA hand also posted in clinic today).