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Becoming really boring now...
Goethe
Member Posts: 370
Over four of the last five DYM SnGs I've played in, I've exited the game as a result of opponents hitting one of two cards needed to make a winning hand on the river (at odds of 22-1) in response to my making a critical play, ie shoving in position with one oppo left in (with fairly equal stacks) and getting a call with an inferior hand (with "inferior" sometimes meaning complete ****: one was a call to a solid shove with K2o with even stacks - go figure?).
As a fairly seasoned player, I expect this to happen - quite frequently as it happens - but over recent weeks being "rivered out" has happened with such monotonous regularity that it's becoming boring and predictable. I've never been in this place before, but I'm actually at a loss as to where to go next? Keep on pluggin away, whilst continuing to throw pennies at the game (in an expectation that the variance fairy is going to change allegiance at some stage) change playing style ("if you can't beat 'em joing em"?) or drop it completely and take up knitting?
Suggestions?
As a fairly seasoned player, I expect this to happen - quite frequently as it happens - but over recent weeks being "rivered out" has happened with such monotonous regularity that it's becoming boring and predictable. I've never been in this place before, but I'm actually at a loss as to where to go next? Keep on pluggin away, whilst continuing to throw pennies at the game (in an expectation that the variance fairy is going to change allegiance at some stage) change playing style ("if you can't beat 'em joing em"?) or drop it completely and take up knitting?
Suggestions?
Comments
Lots more fun
If your equity has increased from 75% (pre flop when the money went in) to 96-98% when you have survived flop and turn without your opponent improving, it means you have run good yourself so far.
Whether they win by flopping quads or on the river doesn't really matter.
I try not to watch 'run outs' because I don't believe anything positive can come out of doing so.
Easier said than done mind.
Just to try and quantify things, I reckon that when I lose out 25% of the time I'm beaten with better cards and am behind from the outset (oppo flops two pair which hold good, a straight or FH or contests it all the way and takes the pot with a better kicker), about 30% of the time it's due to running into big hands on the strategic shove against the last man left in when the blinds are taking their toll (running into AA/KK three times in about four games happened one evening) and the remainder it's just common-or-garden instances of winning cards being served up on the turn and the river. Sure, luck works in my favour at times and I do come from behind to take hands and get back in the game or knock an opponent out, but it certainly isn't a case of what goes around comes around in roughly even proportions - I don't get lucky calling with garbage, as I don't play garbage hands.
Without wanting to sound conceited, I reckon I play a reasonably steady, no-nonsense game, but just recently it all seems to be going South regardless. I've hit losing periods before, but the recent run of results plumbs new depths for me. I can sympathise with those who find themselves on the business end of similar results who question just what's going on. At the moment, knitting's looking an attractive alternative.
:-(
Out of curiosity.
This is my take on my results over the last four weeks or so, so a fairly small sub-set of my overall average over 4 years. If you'd care to take a look at my Sharkscope graph (hardly a curve), you can see my results since the beginning of March have been up and down like a tart's knickers.
Dunno what you play, but if it's MTTs, then your SS will go up and down. Nature of the tournament beast, unless your name is DivsDreams, MattBates, TommyD or Scotty77.
If anyone is interested here are the (not gut feeling) numbers:
Of the 82 hands played, 62 I folded pre or on the blinds (75.61%), and of the 5 out of 20 I didn't subsequently fold post flop or after the turn, and committed to or played to the end:
Beaten after shoving post flop as 75/25% favourite (looked it up) - was holding two pair: top pair and one pair being on the board and oppo holding one overcard, which hit on the river.
Beaten with a flush made on the turn and river (odds of around 23-1 on that happening)
Beaten after raising big with top pair post flop and oppo turning over a flush (odds of flopping a flush are around 117-1).
Beaten with marginally better cards x 2
As I said earlier, boring now - how long do these downturns normally take to run their course? Answers on a postcard please . . . .
Played just one (last?) DYM DnG after this little debacle. Waited patiently for opportunities as I do - with this particular hand (folded 25/38 pre in this Sng) I checked the flop against the last opponennt left in with a marginal hand (A,6o) Called 2x BB raise with the turn leaving me with top pair with Ace kicker, and four outs to a straight. Called 2xBBs raise and the river bought an ace - so 2 pair with top pair.
Called a 6xBB raise after the river - thought I had a fairly reasonable chance of taking this one? Opponent turned over the wheel straight, which he'd hit on the flop. Now you could argue I had been outplayed (hooked and reeled in) which I'd agree with, or that one shouldn't play marginal hands period (although it is a tourny) but what are the odds of someone hitting the wheel straight on the flop? I worked it out at around 305-1, which my boys book of knowledge confirms is correct (so I must at least be getting the sums right, if nothing else!).
Four hands later I raised pre 3xBBs with JKs, was called and jammed on the flop of 5,6,7 (rainbow) against the last player left in - yep a bluff (needed to get back into the game) . . . . He called it and turned over AKo (go figure - although it is a good hand innit?), which stood up and I exited left. Not the greatest of plays expectation wise, but it was based on the odds of him not hitting top pair with one of his hole cards (around 4-1) or two pair from two odd hole cards (around 67-1?). So not so much unlucky as getting a loose call from a well stacked player.
I don't normally write this stuff up in such detail, but it does illustrate what I've been suffering for the last four weeks or so.
Overall then? No change there. Boo Hoo . . . .
You've played 82 hands at 4nl and are trying to draw some conclusions that you're constantly running bad. 4nl is the softest of the soft, so either get back on that horse and grind through it, or shut down Sky for a few days.
Also as JD says, if you want some advice then you're gonna have to post some hands with some background details.
My ramblings are not about drawing any conclusions from a limited sample of 82 hands (that would be silly) - I've dropped the details in here as an example of what I've experienced over the last month or so (during which I've played around 150 SnG tournies at an average of x hands per time), with the last two weeks being particularly acute. Obviously I don't know your playing history, but I'm a recreational player who plays a modest amount, but I've never run into runs of results like this (in four years)??????
Not that I'm alleging any impropriety anywhere, just that (as I've said) it's becoming pretty tedious.
I can see from your SS that you've been very up and down in recent months. You've gotta either ride the variance wave or give yourself a break from the game. 150 SnG's over a month is only about 5 a day on average. Maybe look to put some more volume in to break the cycle?
And I reiterate, post some hands if you want some advice. I don't play SnG's, but will happily comment on any hands, and I'm sure people who grind them will also advise.
The most pragmatic comment in the responses above, bearing in mind my general whinge is not about how I played any particular hand but about the frequency of losing out to cards being served up to opponents in the hole or on the board, is from Jac35. Thanks - I've thought about this over the last 24 hours or so, and in the absence of any inclination to play more - an average of an hour and a half each day is enough for me (as I work full time) - I think it's time for a KitKat.
All is not lost though - I'm going to use my Sharkscope graph as a blueprint for making a slide for my granddaughter this summer.
Good cards all.