Struggling to understand rake impact on split pots

shakinaces

OK - I probably should just call this, as I'm 95% that villain has the Ace and that we're splitting the pot from turn onwards.  He's never bluffing and frequently over shoves decent made hands.

The fact villain only calls the flop means I can include PP, any King and flush draws in his range, as well as aces (which I obviously need to proceed with caution vs).

What throws me in these hands is the impact of rake when the pot is split - I always seem to barely get my money back (or lose if shortie also has an Ace... or in this case, quads).

When factoring in the rake PLUS the 5% of time that villain has the 4 (or 0.01% of time he has KK), does it then make it a -EV play to call with the full house here?

Is there an easy rule of thumb I can apply to work out whether or not its worth calling for a likely split?  Ie if I've committed less than XX BB I should always fold / more than YY BB I should always call?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
shortie	Small blind		£0.04	£0.04	£0.94
villain	Big blind		£0.08	£0.12	£10.38
	Your hole cards	2 A
shakinaces	Raise		£0.20	£0.32	£15.85
xxx	Fold
shortie	Raise		£0.28	£0.60	£0.66
villain	Call		£0.24	£0.84	£10.14
shakinaces	Call		£0.12	£0.96	£15.73
Flop
		4 K A
shortie	Bet		£0.64	£1.60	£0.02
villain	Call		£0.64	£2.24	£9.50
shakinaces	Call		£0.64	£2.88	£15.09
Turn
		4
shortie	All-in		£0.02	£2.90	£0.00
villain	Raise		£0.10	£3.00	£9.40
shakinaces	Call		£0.10	£3.10	£14.99
River
		4
villain	All-in		£9.40	£12.50	£0.00
shakinaces	Fold
villain	Unmatched bet		£9.40	£3.10	£9.40
shortie	Show	4 7
villain	Show	8 A
shortie	Win	Four 4s	£2.72		£2.72
villain	Win	Full House, 4s and Aces	£0.14		£9.54

CraigSG1

LOL at runner runner quads! 

Anyway, firstly fold flop. You need to know what you are playing for and multiway with a weak suited ace we mainly want 2pr/trips/flush-straight draws (or made) or a combo of pair and draw. Do you want to stack off with top pair? Especially in a 3 bet pot? 

It's never a nice situation to call for a split but I will probably fold if I'm in doubt as we can't win much but can lose max. 

shakinaces

In Response to Re: Struggling to understand rake impact on split pots:

LOL at runner runner quads!  Anyway, firstly fold flop. You need to know what you are playing for and multiway with a weak suited ace we mainly want 2pr/trips/flush-straight draws (or made) or a combo of pair and draw. Do you want to stack off with top pair? Especially in a 3 bet pot?  It's never a nice situation to call for a split but I will probably fold if I'm in doubt as we can't win much but can lose max. 
Posted by CraigSG1

Ordinarily no, but against these opponents I think there is value in staying in the pot.

If the other big stack had been raising I'd have gotten out of there quick sharp (especially if he was the 3 better), but I was happy to play pots in position vs him and would have expected to see my hand be good here a reasonable amount of the time.

F_Ivanovic

Never factor in rake to any decision you make. (only exception is if the board is a GTD split pot then no point betting as opponent will call and you will both just be losing out to rake. This is because rake is a constant which all players are affected by. It'd be like factoring in rake to decisions in a tournament - you've already paid your entry fee, it's gone now so make +ev decisions in the tournament.

If you're making decisions based on rake and your opponent isn't then he's going to be winning money from you because he'll be calling in spots where it's +ev to do so whereas we might be folding.

In this hand I wouldn't fold OTR. Sure, we might lose money to rake but as long as it's less than the money we've already invested then it's all good. Villain looks like the type to always jam his Ax and he has so many more Ax in his range than quads (or AA/KK)

shakinaces

In Response to Re: Struggling to understand rake impact on split pots:

Never factor in rake to any decision you make. (only exception is if the board is a GTD split pot then no point betting as opponent will call and you will both just be losing out to rake. This is because rake is a constant which all players are affected by. It'd be like factoring in rake to decisions in a tournament - you've already paid your entry fee, it's gone now so make +ev decisions in the tournament.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Thanks for the reply - I'm not sure I understand the tournament comparison as I'd always call then... assuming it's a split it'll be 0 EV and I'll get back what I put in.

In cash, if I call, I get my money back minus the rake. Therefore that makes it -EV surely?  It's only +EV if what I lose with the river call is off-set by what was in the pot on the turn.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Struggling to understand rake impact on split pots:

In Response to Re: Struggling to understand rake impact on split pots : Thanks for the reply - I'm not sure I understand the tournament comparison as I'd always call then... assuming it's a split it'll be 0 EV and I'll get back what I put in. In cash, if I call, I get my money back minus the rake. Therefore that makes it -EV surely?  It's only +EV if what I lose with the river call is off-set by what was in the pot on the turn.
Posted by shakinaces

If you have put in no money and then villain shoves all in for 100bb in a guaranteed split pot at best then yes, the call will be -ev because of rake. But these situations are rare - the fact is you have already put money into the pot, so whilst you may lose overall on the hand by making the call you will lose less than had you folded (because you've just lost everything you've already invested into the pot)

Lambert180

What Ivan said.

Calling for a definite split might be -EV but it's less -EV than folding most of the time.

Using the above pot as an example but say the runout was AAAAK so you know that you both have the nuts. Sure calling that river is gonna cost you 20p in rake or something but losing 20p in rake and chopping the pot (especially as there is dead money from others that folded on earlier streets) is better than folding and losing the £1.50 you've already put in the middle.

Obv this only applies to spots where we KNOW we're chopping. Depends how good the opponent is but in spots where it looks like everyone is likely chopping and they do a big overbet, it might be to fold out a chop but mroe often than not it's cos he has a better hand than the board and thinks you won't fold.

Fwiw, I did something very similar the other day when the board ran out as a straight and I both cards at the top end of the straight to make the nuts so overbet the river and get called. Your hand is a bit different though and it sucks when he has 4x but this is gonna be Ax soooooo often and you'll be giving up winning 50% of £3.10 just to avoid paying 20p of rake too often imo.

shakinaces

Yeah that makes sense - I think my problem is that I don't know how much rake I will be paying on the pot - ie if I'm only paying 20p to win back £1.50 then yeah it's a call and sucks the 1/20 times he has the 4, gg him.

It was more trying to understand if there is a quick way to calc that 20p figure (or whatever the sum is). I mean, if it's going to cost me an extra £1.40 in rake to get the £1.50 back then it becomes less of a snap call (unless it HAS to be a split) as you have to factor in losing the pot versus a 1BB profit on the river call.

Sorry. I just suffer with OCD over numbers.  I should probably just always call any of these split/jam situations, even the obviously negative ones (ie limped pre SB vs BB with a rainbow AKQJT board) and figure that the +EV calls will outweigh the -EV over the long term.

Thanks both for your posts.