AA no good! outplayed

rivermunky

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancedaiwSmall blind 40.0040.004695.00flynny999Big blind 80.00120.008663.75 Your hole cardsAA   hotchipzFold    9se7enTr3yRaise 240.00360.0010116.25rivermunkyRaise 480.00840.0010082.50daiwFold    flynny999Fold    9se7enTr3yCall 240.001080.009876.25Flop  523   9se7enTr3yCheck    rivermunkyBet 810.001890.009272.509se7enTr3yCall 810.002700.009066.25Turn  J   9se7enTr3yCheck    rivermunkyBet 2025.004725.007247.509se7enTr3yCall 2025.006750.007041.25River  4   9se7enTr3yAll-in 7041.2513791.250.00rivermunkyCall 7041.2520832.50206.259se7enTr3yShow68   rivermunkyShowAA   9se7enTr3yWinStraight to the 620832.50 20832.50

hhyftrftdr

Fold fold fold river.

Fold.

rivermunky

couldnt see how he has a 6 tbh

DOHHHHHHH

He has A6hh 99% of the time and 8d6h 1% of the time

The_Don90

ur also forgetting the 44% of the time he got stubborn with 66 jj 

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

Fold fold fold river. Fold.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

huh whaat??? For one if we fold river with this hand then we don't have a calling range. Secondly villain has so few 6x hands in his range. Ah6h & 6h5h are probably the 6x hands he has the most (2 combos) but villain will get to the river with way more hands that don't have a 6 in them. As proved by the outcome if he calls flop and turn with a bare gutshot then he's getting to the river way too wide and to compensate for that is going to have to be bluffing with way more frequency OTR. Also if villain can have Ah6h then he can have other AhXh hands which are shoving river for value since they know we can never have a 6.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed : huh whaat??? For one if we fold river with this hand then we don't have a calling range. Secondly villain has so few 6x hands in his range. Ah6h & 6h5h are probably the 6x hands he has the most (2 combos) but villain will get to the river with way more hands that don't have a 6 in them. As proved by the outcome if he calls flop and turn with a bare gutshot then he's getting to the river way too wide and to compensate for that is going to have to be bluffing with way more frequency OTR. Also if villain can have Ah6h then he can have other AhXh hands which are shoving river for value since they know we can never have a 6.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Interested how/where you learnt to think about hands like this Ivan?

Was there a specific article/video/forum thread/series of videos that taught you how to break down hands and construct/think about ranges in such a way, both for yourself and opponents? It's probably the difference between most good players and the very good players and it seems pretty complicated to the untrained eye! Wouldn't know where to begin.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed : huh whaat??? For one if we fold river with this hand then we don't have a calling range. Secondly villain has so few 6x hands in his range. Ah6h & 6h5h are probably the 6x hands he has the most (2 combos) but villain will get to the river with way more hands that don't have a 6 in them. As proved by the outcome if he calls flop and turn with a bare gutshot then he's getting to the river way too wide and to compensate for that is going to have to be bluffing with way more frequency OTR. Also if villain can have Ah6h then he can have other AhXh hands which are shoving river for value since they know we can never have a 6.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

At best we're chopping this river. At best. Lets not be results orientated Ivan We either call off in the hope it's a split, or are way behind. We have too much behind to play guessing games IMO.

F_Ivanovic

board: 5h2h3sJc4c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
AsAc	44.44%	0	8
Ah6h, Ah7h, Ah8h, Ah9h, AhTh, AhJh, AhQh, Ah4h, Ah3h	55.56%	1	8

At best we are not chopping the river - we are ahead of all villains potential bluffs too. But suppose that villain doesn't have any bluffs in his range and as you say we are only chopping at best. We will be chopping far more often than we are losing. We've already invested just over 3k in chips and need to invest 7k more to get our 3k invested back. From a maths point of view we need to have 35% equity OTR to make a call +ev. It's for close to our tournament life so we may want a bit more equity to call preferably- as you can see here with a range with no bluffs and maybe villain has more Ax combos than those listed we have 44.44% equity. A huge 10% more than we need. If we add only 1 or 2 bluffs in villains range than calling becomes even more profitable.

Surely you're just being results anyway because we happened to be beat :P Are you winding me up, or do you genuinely think folding here is correct?!

Goethe

Most interesting thread I've read of late. Tell me if I've got this wrong, but the odds of an oppo having any particular two odd card combination is 16/1,326; so the chances of them having A6 is around 1/83, 82-1. Bearing in mind it's reasonable to assume that he's probably made it to the river with ace/something (in which case it would be a split pot) there's no potential for anything better than a straight and the chances of the something not being a 6 are 82/83, I think I'd call this every time.

But then these reasoned odds judgements have got me into a lot of trouble of late . . . .

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed : Interested how/where you learnt to think about hands like this Ivan? Was there a specific article/video/forum thread/series of videos that taught you how to break down hands and construct/think about ranges in such a way, both for yourself and opponents? It's probably the difference between most good players and the very good players and it seems pretty complicated to the untrained eye! Wouldn't know where to begin.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Probably just by reading/commenting on threads on 2+2! Don't know if I can pinpoint anything specific. Obviously in some cases it's not important that we don't have a large enough calling range within our range because an opponent isn't capable of exploiting that. But against good players it's important to try and think about this stuff. I must admit though that in the past it sometimes had an adverse effect on my game: eg. I would call in spots where I thought it would be exploitable to fold even though I knew my reg opponent wasn't trying to exploit me. 

In this hand though it's a combination of factors that makes a call correct - one is that folding would be exploitable but the most important is that villain just has way more combos of hands that we beat/tie than are beating us. In response to ^^, yes that's thinking along the right lines although I wouldn't expect villain to have A6o or to call 2 bets with anything other than Ah6h. (of which he might raise flop some % anyway) - same goes for 5h6h, Ah3h and Ah4h. But supposing villain is calling 2 streets with A6 no hearts then he's also calling with a lot of other hands that we beat/split OTR. 

If this was a SRP and it had been checked 2 streets and villain had donk shoved river for 10x pot or similar then the situation is completely different and folding then would become mandatory for reasons hhyftrftdr gave - we're either splitting or behind - we need a lot more equity to call (almost 50%) when we probably are lucky to have 40% vs his range. And we've not invested much chips.

Lambert180

You can't just say well there are X number of hands with a 6 in compared to a total of 1326 hands though. Cos he won't raise 72o pre, or call a 3bet with it. You need to narrow their range down based on the action, and given the range narrowing it's FAR less than 1326 hands that he can have.

FWIW, I'm calling too but not expecting to be winning virtually ever, but just not expecting a 6x close to ever either.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

board: 5h2h3sJc4c Hand Equity Wins Ties AsAc 44.44% 0 8 Ah6h, Ah7h, Ah8h, Ah9h, AhTh, AhJh, AhQh, Ah4h, Ah3h 55.56% 1 8 At best we are not chopping the river - we are ahead of all villains potential bluffs too. But suppose that villain doesn't have any bluffs in his range and as you say we are only chopping at best. We will be chopping far more often than we are losing. We've already invested just over 3k in chips and need to invest 7k more to get our 3k invested back. From a maths point of view we need to have 35% equity OTR to make a call +ev. It's for close to our tournament life so we may want a bit more equity to call preferably- as you can see here with a range with no bluffs and maybe villain has more Ax combos than those listed we have 44.44% equity. A huge 10% more than we need. If we add only 1 or 2 bluffs in villains range than calling becomes even more profitable. Surely you're just being results anyway because we happened to be beat :P Are you winding me up, or do you genuinely think folding here is correct?!
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Yes, I genuinely believe folding here can be correct. We have plenty behind (like nearly 100bb), its a very slow tournament. I've no doubt we'll be chopping more often than not, but for the times we're not its goodbye tournament.

Not convinced villain can have many genuine bluffs that haven't got there one way or another by the river. It would literally have to be some random airball to try and get us off KK/QQ. But that 4 helps our range significantly, which is why it's such a great spot with a 6

F_Ivanovic

Thought we still had 2k back if we lost, didn't realise it's only 200 chips. I guess if you think villain can't have any bluffs and you think you have a substantial edge against the rest of the table then you can consider folding. (also didn't realise it was a slow structure)

I guess the other thing to consider is that villain may not shove all his Ax hands. (although theoretically villain should be doing so given we both have so few 6x in our range) So given this it might be closer than I first thought which was a 'snap call' but I still think it would be a big mistake to fold here. Would you fold KK here pre-flop supposing you had just shy of 90bb's? I'm guessing not - and with KK we are only beat by 6 hand combinations. Here we are only beat by 2 or 3 hand combos at most (6h7h, 6h8h, Ah6h) - and some of these hands like Ah6h arguably raise the flop some % of the time.

Going back to the result villain had 68o. If he's calling flop and turn with a bare gutshot then he's calling with all of his FD's (has way more combos of FD's than gutshots) - if he's getting to river with so much air he's going to have to be bluffing this river a lot.

Goethe

In Response to Re: AA no good! outplayed:

You can't just say well there are X number of hands with a 6 in compared to a total of 1326 hands though. Cos he won't raise 72o pre, or call a 3bet with it. You need to narrow their range down based on the action, and given the range narrowing it's FAR less than 1326 hands that he can have.
Posted by Lambert180

Of course.  But a player'e behaviour after their hole cards have been dealt doesn't change the odds of what they were dealt in the first place? In the example above, you've got three calls followed at the end by a shove. As only A6 will mean the pot's not split, and the odds of the oppo having this dealt is c82-1, do the odds warrant folding? Does depend, of course, on whether you can wipe your face over what's already gone in and stack sizes etc. In this case do you commit virtually all of your remaining stack on the 82/83 probability it's a bluff, and you'll get back the 30% of your stack you've already put in (as in this example), or walk away?

This one looks to be another case of a player who just got lucky (as James Bond said) - lucky in that the combination of their hole cards and the flop put them on a potential straight -v- straight contest with one other, them holding the better end of range card and the straight being made (at 11-1?) - so they came from behind to clean up. As I say, odds on that?

Or have I got this all wrong?