if i'm expecting him to fold should i just jam?

craigcu12

i decided to check on the turnjust to take a free card because i was sure he would have still made one call with Qx and their is a chance he is chasing an A, the bet he then makes on the river i'm sure would see him fold raggy A that was just top pair, knowing that he will fold his raggy aces should i therefore have just shoved it in hope that he did have 2 pair rather than leave myself annoyed to see him just call this raise with 2 pair?

Lovey87	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£22.86
Dawson2010	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£36.76
	Your hole cards	K 10
Lonsy	Fold
Curt360x27	Fold
	Call		£0.20	£0.50	£51.57
craigcu12	Raise		£0.80	£1.30	£25.22
Lovey87	Fold
Dawson2010	Fold
	Call		£0.60	£1.90	£50.97
Flop
		6 5 Q
	Check
craigcu12	Bet		£0.80	£2.70	£24.42
	Call		£0.80	£3.50	£50.17
Turn
		A
	Check
craigcu12	Check
River
		J
	Bet		£4.20	£7.70	£45.97
craigcu12	Raise		£13.13	£20.83	£11.29
	Call		£8.93	£29.76	£37.04
craigcu12	Show	K 10
	Muck	5 A
craigcu12	Win	Straight to the Ace	£28.27		£39.56

freshfish1

If he calls nearly a pot sized raise then he will call an all in. Therefore shoving is best because if he has a hand that can call you will make more money in the long run. That overbet on the river is either a strong hand that can call an all in or air imo.

hhyftrftdr

If we hold the nuts, always look to get maximum value. Doesn't need to work everytime to make it profitable.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: if i'm expecting him to fold should i just jam?:

If we hold the nuts, always look to get maximum value. Doesn't need to work everytime to make it profitable.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

It will always be profitable but it's a qn of being more profitable than just making a smaller raise. If he only calls the shove 20% of the time then we will be making £20.22 x 0.2 = £4.04. If he calls the smaller raise 80% of the time then we will be making £8.93 x 0.8 = £7.14. So in this case, the smaller raise size is more profitable. (this is w/o calculating the small % of the time that villain value/bluff shoves the rest after we make a small raise in which case it is slightly more profitable than just £7.14.)

Suppose villain calls shove 50% of the time tho then we will be making £10.11. In fact if villain calls more than 35% of the time we are gaining more profit than the smaller raise (assuming he calls that 80% of the time)

If we're against a rec then I think shoving here shows the most profit because as someone else mentioned their small river overbet usually indicates a strong hand like 2p + or a bluff. And if they're calling a small raise they're probably calling a bigger raise just as much. Against a reg it becomes harder to balance an overbet shove like this - and they'll be much more capable of finding hero folds with 2 pair, whereas it becomes harder to find such a fold with 2 pair when they're getting better odds. So a smaller raise might be better in this case but it can depend on the reg. Most regs don't make overbets anyway so I would assume they're v strong and would probably size the raise slightly larger.

hhyftrftdr

Guy has limp called with A5, and slightly overbet the river. Probably safe to assume he ain't a reg

Think we should be shoving here all day long vs this type of player.

77Chris91

Shove against recs and bad regs.

Raise against good regs.

I'd expect a good reg to find a fold with 55/66 if you shove the river for the reasons Ivan pointed out.