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no justice
rivermunky
Member Posts: 354
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancebdr79Small blind £0.05£0.05£9.35argoBig blind £0.10£0.15£22.71 Your hole cardsJJ Koo nRaise £0.30£0.45£6.12rivermunkyRaise £1.05£1.50£46.09longman912Call £1.05£2.55£19.31bdr79Fold argoCall £0.95£3.50£21.76Koo nCall £0.75£4.25£5.37Flop AJA argoCheck Koo nAll-in £5.37£9.62£0.00rivermunkyCall £5.37£14.99£40.72longman912All-in £19.31£34.30£0.00argoFold rivermunkyRaise £27.88£62.18£12.84rivermunkyUnmatched bet £13.94£48.24£26.78Koo nShowA10 rivermunkyShowJJ longman912ShowQA Turn 9 River 9 Koo nWinFull House, Aces and 9s£9.89 £9.89longman912WinFull House, Aces and 9s£36.95 £36.9
Comments
Odds of the two nines showing? 4/47 x 3/46 = 12/2,162 = c179-1. If you visit here:
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
you can punch the hands in to see your win probability at the point of commitment.
Just remember - game of skill ;-)
(a Dutch court says so).
My post percentages are as follows...
76.348% sarcasm
23.279% total bollo x
.373% helpful advice
Hope this helps.
I did include the link to the other web page so the OP could punch in the cards to determine exactly what you reported (I didn't do it).
Personally, I think there's a little bit more attempting to quantify the variance "thing", than the purely relying on the win/loss probabilities going into a contest. You may think otherwise and that's your prerogative. We'll just have to agree to differ.
Take a scenario where you're playing a game that's a roll of a dice - odds you win, evens you lose; very simple. At the point of commitment you've a 50% probability of winning, and the same for losing. You lose ten contests on the trot. Not beyond the realms of possibility, and within statistical norms (3xStdDev). But what if everyone of those times you lost, it was the result of a six being rolled (specific outcome probability as opposed to just the win/loss probability)- what would your thoughts be then? Just one of those things - just some more variance to get over? I worked this out at being a six standard deviation plus occurance (using a spreadsheet of course).
If you look on this page at Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
. . . you can see what the odds of a six standard deviation outcome is (table about 2/3rds of the way down the page).
Now What conclusion would you draw for this succession of outcomes?
This is a simple example that does illustrate the difference in how you measure things. The issue with poker is, for many reasons, it's imposible to put any result into a similar context.
For the record, I agree with the last bit you wrote - I wouldn't consider this a bad "beat", but just a case of being "unlucky". We've all been on the end of far worse.
Good #*@$!!!! cards. :-)
There's luck, bad luck, very unlucky, "I don't believe it", "Nah . . . . " and then there's "hmmm . . . . ." In the absence of any hard stats being published to take a look at and analyse (I don't think a single online poker site provides global stats data) I remain one of the "hmmms", although I do keep an open mind. But that's another story.
Cheers.
:-)
My example was c100K-1 - if my memory serves me right the odds of the specific cards appearing on the flop (allowing for those in hand) was c99-1 (which was unusual in itself _ I thought so anyway) and then the turn and river turned up the only two cards that could take the pot (2/47 x 1/46 = 2/2162). You do the sums. . . . . I think the win prob at the point of commitment was in the region of 90%+. Great material for a TV sitcom or a gangster movie. I should say I've never seen similar circumstances since, but I live in hope.
I think the biggest fairy tale is that this is a game of skill? Of course it is . . . .