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Binions PLO Tourney Question. Bubble Spot. What would YOU do now?
62 runners, $200 Entry, 7 get paid. Winner gets about $5,000, 7th gets $520.
There are EIGHT players left. Blinds are 2,000 - 4,000, we have 160,000. We are 3rd in chips, & 3 players have less than 10 Bigs.
We have cruised to this Final, our chips have never been in much danger.
Of the Finalists, 2 seem to be quite decent, & one looks to be different gravy, very very good indeed, BIG winner in poker.
Everything is going along nicely.
We get dealt.....
A-A-2-3, with two clubs, two spades. (If ONLY this were PLO8....!).
Double Suited aces, & sort of one way connectors. (We can't flop a true wrap with A-2-3, only a one way straight).
These are not terrible Aces at all, not the best, but they are OK.
Best player on the Table makes it 12,000. He has played pretty snug so far, though he forced me off a monster earlier.
We make it 45,000.
He dwells for a very long time.
What sort of hand would he dwell so long with? REmember, he is a top-class player.
Eventually, he calls.
Off we go.
Flop is rainbow, Q-6-7.
He pots it.
What sort of hand do we put him on, & what should we do now?
You to act.....
Comments
You have mentioned he pushed you off a hand earlier does this come into your thinking? are you miffed at him for this?
Does he think, or for that matter, do you think he can bully you off the hand? If he is symmingtons as you suggest he may have called with nothing looking to outplay people post flop. The question is are you looking to cash or to win. the former means fold (after long pause and much furrowing of the brow) the latter could mean a shove. I wish I was good enough to be there and be able to do this for real but I think I fold
I would fold really quickly.
Well mentally at least, think the standard 'fake 2 minute dwell, ask for a count, play with your chips, dwell some more, sigh loudly, look up to the ceiling' before passing is probably in order here given the game situation.
I'm not sure about PLO MTT strategy but calling 3bets wider is a lot more acceptable in PLO cash than NLHE cash?
I'd expect he can have all sorts of 4567/5678/6789/4578 type stuff? More so than JJxx/QQxx/KKxx.......
Although I'd imagine he would check-raise all in on these kind of boards rather than lead?
The 'donk' lead feels strange. (to a nlhe player)
Is it a legit move for him to confidently put you on big AA and KK's, 'donk pot' with a hand that he believes has as much as 60/65% equity against your most likely hands ?
Preferring a fold to a high variance 'big flip' when he perceives he has a significant edge against the field?
Either way it feels like we're handcuffed and have to fold!
tikay you haven't mentioned what position he was in? Would have a better idea of how loose/tight he might be opening. If he's opening a bit wider in late position there might be some marginal gapped rundowns that he dwells with pre like 6749ss or J986ss - again hands that might prefer to pot the flop to create maximum fold equity.
Morning (?) lads, some great replies here, thank you.
Will try & reply to them all.
In order.....
I don't think he has AA/KK/QQ, no, though he could have 4 broadway cards. Pretty sure he follds naked QQ & even naked KK here. I was almost certain he had some sort of rundown, something like 9-10-J-Q, ds.
Yes, I DID think he might be trying to push me around, as I'd made a monster fold against him earlier.
No, I was not miffed with him, not at all, he was a lovely bloke, & I had immense respect for the way he was playing. Best player on the table, by far, but having said that, I was not going to let him push me around.
I was looking, 100%, to WIN, not cash. This as the easiest cash ever for me, 3rd in chips when the Final began, I can easily fold to the cash, but I wanted to WIN. Not my previous mindset, but these days I try to play for stacks, & win these things. My THM is littered with min-cashes, dozens of them, but I'm trying to change that mindset.
I was planning to shove on any unco-ordinated flop, but reassess if it came two high paint. I had enough chips to get him off anything remotely thin.
Yes, it is standard (& correct) in PLO to call 3 bets WAY more often, & wide, than in NLH. If, for instance, he puts us on A-A-x-x, he is right to call, imo. I know I would call with a good rundown if I put a Villin on Aces.
The donk lead was what really confused me. Pretty sure he does not do that with, say, Q-Q-Q, so why would he lead?
I am certain (& he confirmed it later) that he had me on the Aces. But he also knows I can find big folds, so might try & exploit that.
Anyway, I re-potted him. And his chips were in the middle before mine......
[QUOTE]He prob has something like AQJT, AKQJ IMO. Any strong run-down is an easy call pre-flop and he wouldn't need to take long to think about it. Whereas a hand like AQJT is less of a call when your range is so AA heavy which will often dominate them types of hands. Then when he flops TP he figures the best way to get fold equity is to lead out - if he check/shoves it's going to be almost impossible for you to fold after putting so much money in. The other possible hands he might dwell with pre are QQJT, QQKA, KKAQ. (but there's no way he pots top set OTF) tikay you haven't mentioned what position he was in? Would have a better idea of how loose/tight he might be opening. If he's opening a bit wider in late position there might be some marginal gapped rundowns that he dwells with pre like 6749ss or J986ss - again hands that might prefer to pot the flop to create maximum fold equity. What suits are on the flop - do we have 0, 1 or 2 BDFD's? I think overall it's a close spot.... we probably have at worst 25% equity and at best 65%... so I'd imagine an average of about 40% equity (PPT is so complicated for omaha!!) - having 1 or 2 BDFD's would increase our overall equity. I think with 2 I definitely call and with 0 I probably fold. 1 is close - The fact we're up against a v good player means that it's not like we'll be able to find amazing spots vs him and we will just have to gamble at some point. Given we've already put in a big chunk of our stack and a double up would put is in great position I think I GII with just 1 BDFD too.
Posted by F_Ivanovic
When it came Q-6-7 & he lead out, I insta discounted all the broadway combos, & of course QQ.
The flop was rainbow, & I had one back door flush draw.
He was in early position.
I thought this was THE ideal spot to dent the chip leader (& best player) stack, & go for the win.
I had pre-determined that I'd not back down unless it came a flop that fitted with something like 9-10-J-Q.
Dohhhh owned the thread, when he said.....
I'd expect he can have all sorts of 4567/5678/6789/4578 type stuff? More so than JJxx/QQxx/KKxx.......
Spot on, you almost nailed it.
He had 5-7-8-9. There is a concept in PLO where we include one gappers" in rundowns, & that was what he had, a lovely one-gapper. If he misses the flop, he just gives up. If he hits his wrap, off we go.
I was a tad unlucky that he hit THE dream flop, he never folds on a 6-7 flop, that is exactly what he played for.
Even so, I'm still ahead, & I can't find the fold button in this instance. I also hoped he had his rundown one spot higher (9-10 up rather than starting with 8-9).
He hit his straight on the turn, & I was dead.
I spent a lot of time thinking about this play afterwards, & in the end, I think I learned a great deal from the fella - I may be overestimating his abilties, but I thought his play here was spectacularly good, & it was a wonderful call. The fact he hit it has nothing to do with anything, its irrelevant, it was just - imo - a fantastic play by him.
And so I bubbled......
I still have no idea if my play was correct, though I think it was.
I loved his play, & I learned something from it. I need to try & motor along with a bigger stack, so I can make these plays. When we are short of chips, we can't make the play he did, when we are caked up, we can.
Just a quick PS, this problem I have of motoring alomg with a small stack is a big problm for me, whcih I'm trying to solve, hence I was so aggro in this case.
The next day I scraped into the money (my zillionth min-cash) in the $235 PLO @ Orleans. I had to return for Day Two to do it, too, 21 returned with 18 paid, & I just about lasted into the money with 5 Bigs or somesuch. I busted with A-K-K-Q when, because I was so short, I got looked up by two players.
From there, I went & played the $600 PLO8 (not PLO) @ Venetian. Rinse repeat, at the end of Day One (5am this morning....) 19 remain, 12 get paid, & even after a full scoopio 3 way treble up on the penultimate hand of the day, I still only have 15 Bigs to go back with later today, so I am long odds against to cash, or ar best, min-cash.
I unerstand PLO & PLO8 quite well (I think...) but I just lack "gamble". It's very hard for me to to solve, I recognize it, but struggle to do it.
The problem (age-related) is that I KNOW what I need to do, but I am struggling to change habits of a lifetime.
I hope you are enjoying yourself and i think you will pick up a nice win whilst you are out there.
Nick