Getting max value from big hands vs nit/TAG players

shakinaces

Q. Should I ever consider flatting the river bet given I'm against two multi-tabling TAG regs?

Between them I'd guess they had in excess of 20 tables running.

I'm not sure Messi would ever be betting all 3 streets into two oppos without an overpair on this board (or flopped set). He is likely to c-bet once though, hence my call on the flop with an over pair and expectation to be good if he gives up on turn.

Neymar coming along for the ride must also be sat with a PP to have called through the streets.  At a push, 55 and calling for the straight draw, but most likely another overpair. Not sure I've ever seen Neymar raise anything but QQ/KK/AA from the blinds, they'd call AK/JJ in this spot.

With that nittiness in mind, alarm bells will be going off on both their heads if I shove the river and both are good enough to fold an overpair in this spot (IMO). They likely have me as also being fairly TAG and certainly know that I'm never bluffing in this spot, despite my tendancy to make daft plays against other players.

So even though I have the effective nuts, is the most EV play to just call on the river and increase the odds on getting a sigh call from Neymar to boost my winnings?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
xxx	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£8.08
Neymar	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£13.26
	Your hole cards	8 8
xxx	Fold
xxx	Fold
Messi	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£12.14
shakinaces	Call		£0.30	£0.75	£10.47
xxx	Fold
Neymar	Call		£0.20	£0.95	£13.06
Flop
		3 6 4
Neymar	Check
Messi	Bet		£0.50	£1.45	£11.64
shakinaces	Call		£0.50	£1.95	£9.97
Neymar	Call		£0.50	£2.45	£12.56
Turn
		8
Neymar	Check
Messi	Bet		£1.60	£4.05	£10.04
shakinaces	Call		£1.60	£5.65	£8.37
Neymar	Call		£1.60	£7.25	£10.96
River
		3
Neymar	Check
Messi	Bet		£3.10	£10.35	£6.94
shakinaces	?????

craigcu12

no  matter how tight he is you've got to make the raise, yes he might fold a premium pair but that doesn't seem as bad as you think because what it might do is allow you to steal more pots from him in the future when sets have missed as he'll see that raise as a set that you've slow played too.

yes they might be beaten but if a player holding premium pairs were to fold everytime a board was like this then it's only a matter of time before the'll get people bluffing sets.

F_Ivanovic

River is the most super standard shove ever! Don't worry about what they are going to call with. If they are folding all the time to river shoves if they don't have the nuts then you've found yourself a super profitable spot with your bluffs.... and yes, you can easily have some bluffs here. A hand like 99/TT that you no longer think is good here, 5d6d (or any back door flush draw that you called the flop with) are all hands with which shoving would be a good idea.

hhyftrftdr

If you don't shove the river then please never play a hand again

Glenelg

Messi obvs got quad 3s  Sigh!

BUt i'd prob pay £9 just to see em?

Matt237

Jam!

alex1229

Look, your just way over thinking dude, seriously there is no need for a essay, no need for questions no need for messi, no need for neymar, this is just a shove. thats it, pokers really simple..

What did you do?

shakinaces

Oh I insta-shoved and got two folds.  I'd always do this against most players at this level, expecting to get paid the majority of the time by initial bettor, it was just rare to be in this spot vs two very nitty players where the odds of getting a shove called are drastically reduced.

Only wondered whether there is ever a case to increasing the chance of a call and boosting profit.

Answer = no.

alex1229

In Response to Re: Getting max value from big hands vs nit/TAG players:

Oh I insta-shoved and got two folds.  I'd always do this against most players at this level, expecting to get paid the majority of the time by initial bettor, it was just rare to be in this spot vs two very nitty players where the odds of getting a shove called are drastically reduced. Only wondered whether there is ever a case to increasing the chance of a call and boosting profit. Answer = no.
Posted by shakinaces

Its a fair thought, but honestly you gotta shove, you might not get a call, but if 10 minutes later you get another big hand and shove on them again on the river..it'll get to them and they'll start paying you out more then you think

think long term not short term

F_Ivanovic

If the bet was bigger you could consider a flat, since the value of Neymar calling might be more than the value you get from shoving. Alternatively, with a slightly weaker (but still strong hand) here like 66 or 44 we might consider a call, since again, shoving gets slightly less value since we'll sometimes be against a better hand. 

But given the bet was small and you have a decent amount behind with the 2nd nuts, shoving is best. 

As I said previously, if they're folding too much in this spot then start bluffing with hands you get to the river with that no longer have enough showdown value.

77Chris91

Thing is Shakin, Messi has bet into two opponents on every street. His range will be strong enough a decent % of the time to call off your shove.

Other thing to consider is that in theory, when Messi leads the river and you flat, Neymar is gonna call pretty infrequently given that you both look quite strong here.

So river is pretty much an autoshove every time.