Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert

MilitantG

So I'm deep in the tournament, just went out on this. Obviously the shove was to get the other guy to fold, if not reasonably happy going to the river as i put him on ace rag or a flush draw
Just wanted people's opinions if I was too hasty, and I think i min-raised early but the fella who busted me was calling all night so i was sure a bigger raise wouldn't have pushed him off. Therefore I only min-raised as I knew that would push off the comparatively tight/ non-calling stations.


PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancetrip10sSmall blind 200.00200.0017635.00dryden97Big blind 400.00600.006920.00 Your hole cardsJ10   MilitantGRaise 800.001400.009880.00EatMyMuck2Fold    mackarel21Fold    trip10sCall 600.002000.0017035.00dryden97Call 400.002400.006520.00Flop  410A   trip10sCheck    dryden97Check    MilitantGCheck    Turn  J   trip10sBet 2400.004800.0014635.00dryden97Fold    MilitantGAll-in 9880.0014680.000.00trip10sCall 7480.0022160.007155.00trip10sShowA9   MilitantGShowJ10   River  4   trip10sWinTwo Pairs, Aces and 4s22160.00 29315.00

DOHHHHHHH

All streets look good to me! ul

Slipwater

Yeah, you can't realistically call the turn out of what you have left in your stack, and the board is uber-dangerous now. You have two pair, so even if you're behind at that point, you can improve. I think going over the top as you did, you just about have enough fold equity... and to be fair, it's a bit of a loose call by the villain.

Like D said: you just got unlucky.

Lambert180

We don't want FE, we want calls. WP on every street, ul

hhyftrftdr

Nothing to see here. UL is all.

We'd only want FE with some combo draw Slippy no? Broadway/flushy type thang.

seanallen

'Obviously the shove was to get the other guy to fold'

If he folds we are 100% to win 14K chips. If he calls we are 81% to win 21K chips. Chips wise it's quite a bit better for us he calls?(19% less likely to win the hand, but we're playing for 33% more chips). The only hands it works out better for us if he folds (hands that have better than 33% equity) he's hardly ever folding.

ICM wise have I got it right that its always better that we're called here. I've been struggling to work it out for a while now, is there any thing else we need to factor in or is that about it.

DOHHHHHHH

Yes, not sure where fold equity came from. 

Worst hand he can have that beats us is A4 and he's not folding that, so we have zero fold equity against hands we would like to fold. 

Slipwater

Hmmm... that's a scary turn card if I'm holding 10J of hearts. I'm not so sure I do want a call there.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

Hmmm... that's a scary turn card if I'm holding 10J of hearts. I'm not so sure I do want a call there.
Posted by Slipwater

So you'd fold to his turn lead then?

Only realistically behind to 44 and A4, as we hold blockers to the other 2 pair combo's that beat us. His FPB means we only really have one option, on what is an extremely draw heavy board and a BH.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert : So you'd fold to his turn lead then? Only realistically behind to 44 and A4, as we hold blockers to the other 2 pair combo's that beat us. His FPB means we only really have one option, on what is an extremely draw heavy board and a BH.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

No, but I think he may fold to my shove. He still has over 14k behind.

seanallen

The Jack of diamonds is the third best card in the deck for our hand. I can kind of see what you mean by we don't want our opponent snap call, that's only because it's gonna  mean we're beat a lot of the time, have to fade a lot of outs other times. I can't really see what else we can do though, call and fold some of the bad rivers? Trouble with that IMO is 1) our opponent may do the same thing so we miss out on value or 2) we may end up folding the best hand. Some upsides to it maybe though? idk

I just think we're ahead way more often than not on the turn so shoving predominantly for value, i.e  to get called by worse, (OP was putting him most likely on Ace rag of a FD, even A5cc has only about 30% equity, we make more chips when he calls this hand than when he folds it) has got to be best.

seanallen

We're not shoving 14K, we're shoving 7K. We're giving him 3/1 on calling. He's not folding much of anything. The fact he still has decent chips behind if he loses probably means he calls wider as well.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

The Jack of diamonds is the third best card in the deck for our hand. I can kind of see what you mean by we don't want our opponent snap call, that's only because it's gonna  mean we're beat a lot of the time, have to fade a lot of outs other times. I can't really see what else we can do though, call and fold some of the bad rivers? Trouble with that IMO is 1) our opponent may do the same thing so we miss out on value or 2) we may end up folding the best hand. Some upsides to it maybe though? idk I just think we're ahead way more often than not on the turn so shoving predominantly for value, i.e  to get called by worse, (OP was putting him most likely on Ace rag of a FD, even A5cc has only about 30% equity, we make more chips when he calls this hand than when he folds it) has got to be best.
Posted by seanallen

I agree. I absolutely am shoving this turn too - I think the hand has been played well - but I still feel that, when I do shove... it's a flip as to whether I want him to call or not.

DOHHHHHHH

If we don't want calls, we shouldn't shove, coz he aint folding! 

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

If we don't want calls, we shouldn't shove, coz he aint folding! 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

You may get him to fold a weak ace, or both his flush draws... really depends who it is, I guess.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

If we don't want calls, we shouldn't shove, coz he aint folding! 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

This.

Guy who just mashes 'pot' on the turn ain't folding any A. You'd suspect a solid player wouldn't want to bloat this pot too much (or peel A9o from the blinds in the first place). Hence I'm happy to jam for value here, just unlucky we couldn't fade the outdraw.

seanallen

When we shove and he folds we win 4800 chips 100% of the time, putting us on 14600 chips. When we shove and he calls we win 22000 chips 81% of the time, putting us on 17600 chips (not great at math so probably not exactly right, ballpark though I think). There needs to be another reason other than winning as many chips from the hand as possible for him folding to be the better outcome for us.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert : This. Guy who just mashes 'pot' on the turn ain't folding any A. You'd suspect a solid player wouldn't want to bloat this pot too much (or peel A9o from the blinds in the first place). Hence I'm happy to jam for value here, just unlucky we couldn't fade the outdraw.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

You don't think we get any ace to fold here?

I'm probably folding all of them except 4, and 10+

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert:

In Response to Re: Tonight's £2000 bounty huntert : You don't think we get any ace to fold here? I'm probably folding all of them except 4, and 10+
Posted by Slipwater

I'm talking about vs this type of specific villain (''calls all night long'', peels A9o in SB, leads pot with a marginal hand etc etc). This guy is calling the shove with any Ace, so its an easy shove for value IMO and an unfortunate river.

Vs a different type of player, we could/would take a different line. But the whole hand is completely different if the villain in question is (for example) Chicknmelt and not the guy it is.

seanallen

I do actually agree with you Slipwater in some ways, if this was say, for instance, eight players left in the mega roller a big part of me would be rooting for the other guy to fold, even if I could see his hand and knew it would be better for me, chips wise, if he called. That's 100% an emotional thing though, down to me getting nervous when I get deep in a tournament and start looking at the lobby and potential pay jumps. Something I'd like to get rid of really.

I think in the cold light of day when analysing it though all we can really do is say what is the most +EV play versus his range. It is a straight maths thing IMO.

DOHHHHHHH

If you think he folds some Ax and draws this is terrible for us. 

The only hands left that call are better than ours and have us drawing almost dead. 

It may be best to flat and play a river in position or even fold and 'find a better spot' with that read.