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QQ DYM
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt237 | Small blind | 50.00 | 50.00 | 5085.00 | |
| Steve | Big blind | 100.00 | 150.00 | 3390.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| John | Raise | 200.00 | 350.00 | 980.00 | |
| Mr_Shh | Fold | (1800) | |||
| Mark | Call | 200.00 | 550.00 | 755.00 | |
| Matt237 |
A) Fold
Raise + Call off both John and Mark if they push, or either. And fold if BB jamsC) Shove and risk Steve waking up with a big hand and potentially committing suicide in spot
D) Call along
Think its quite a straightforward decision for me but it's an interesting debate.
Comments
Easy game.
Raise to take on the 2 shorties and call off vs them. Probs should have made that clearer above
Now we have 50bigs @50/100 and with 3 shorties we're locked on to be ITM 93% of the time. This may sound really nitty but why should we get involved when we're already 93% locked on to cash. You can run the stacks through this icm calculator http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php
If we jam (based on bb only calling with the top 1.4% hands QQ+), as the icmizer link below shows we only make 0.88% long term
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#Cevg
Our equity does not change even if the bb calls with 99+, AQ+ as shown below:
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#FkIL
What if we raise?
In the scenario that we raise to 600 and the bb folds and let's say we get it in vs the two other players, we're only going to win 60% of the time and the other 40% we will have lost around 1k.
If we were to raise to 600 and then the bb jams (he can exploit us if he understands icm as we cannot call unless we have AA) we're in an awkward situation as we cannot call as you have stated. Now let's say the bb flats our 600 and then utg jams and the btn calls or folds, what do we do? we still have the bb to act behind us right? So if we flat that's bad (what do we do on say a T43r board and we check and bb bets 1k?), if we isolate then we run the big risk that bb calls and of course if we fold we've just given away 600 chips unecessarily.
I also ran this through sngwizz and according to that, it shows that we can only really profitably play KK+.
The opportunity to eliminate one or both the shortys with what is highly likely to be the best hand is a no brainer surely?
It's very unrealistic we'll double them both up, so even if we bust one and double another, that leaves us in a great spot on the bubble and should cruise to the money.
Plus, if we raise, they might even fold, you know.
Plus it's already been mentioned that the larger stack in the BB doesn't understand ICM so I'm not concerned about being exploited by him because that doesn't appear to be in his poker repertoire.
With the bb not understanding icm makes it even more likely that he flats our 600 with some Ax, KQ and PP and then what do we do when utg jams for 1.1k?
If the BB is poor enough to flat Ax, KQ etc etc then it's a simple re ship on him if UTG goes with his hand? Doesn't sound like he is a savvy enough player to flat AA/KK in this spot and pull our pants down.