Roll out the barrel?

shakinaces

K2s isn't a standard 3b from the blinds, but was a hand I'd picked to defend with yesterday and the button was the sort of oppo where this would often either take the blinds pre (and make him think twice about stealing every orbit) or call to play fit or fold.

Disappointly the BB came along for the ride on this occasion.

If I'm putting BB on a far stronger range (inc AK/AQ/AJ) should I even be bothering to cbet or should I revert to plan B and get out the hand if I can't cheaply see turn and river?

Obv in this case I did cbet, but now I know that BB is the sort of player who will fire most turns if I check and give the impression I've given up... yet I'm thinking that a big part of his range includes an ace....

So is turn a c/f or a b/f (or even b/c or b/r?)?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
shakinaces	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£35.26
BB	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£9.66
	Your hole cards	2 K
xxx	Fold
xxx	Fold
BU	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£9.70
shakinaces	Raise		£0.95	£1.40	£34.31
BB	Call		£0.90	£2.30	£8.76
BU	Call		£0.70	£3.00	£9.00
Flop
		A J 5
shakinaces	Bet		£1.60	£4.60	£32.71
BB	Call		£1.60	£6.20	£7.16
BU	Fold
Turn
		2
shakinaces	???

77Chris91

Options are B/C or C/F (Assuming villain doesn't bet really small)

If you bet and villain jams your going to have the correct price vs his range to call so b/f isn't really an option.

You would be best placed to decide what % of villain's range is Ax hands. There's no point in betting to get A10+ to fold it's just never gonna happen often enough to make betting /jamming the turn profitable. 

Against better regs at higher limits this is a mandatory turn jam but here make an exploitative c/f is best imo.

 

CraigSG1

I think we can bet and get a lot of better hands to fold such as a weakish played QQ and 1010,99,88 and some weak aces like A6s. If we get jammed on thenwe alwasy hoave some (if not a lot) of outs.

TPTP123

This flop is a wet dream for your hand. Why?  Because we turn a universe of outs with our flushdraw+2 backdoor straights and there's dead money in pot .  This is why you 3bet trashy hands like this, a) because they block KK, AK, KQ b) because we try to outplay opponents on turn. Folding when we need to. c) we can stack off on Ace boards

Any 3, 4, Q, J, T (20 out of 49 turns) will give you 13 outs on turn or make u flush. Giving you about 28% to win the hand + u already have the intiative in pot as you took agreession pre which gives you much more fold equity than needed and can make Ax fold versus SOME opponents.  

Dont cbet this flop, You HAVE to c/r induce a mistake from either opponents, ie get pocket pairs to call 1 street, stack 2 pairs and Ace of heart hands. 

BB range here should be something like 22+, A9s+,A2s-A5s, AJo+, KT+s, QTs+,54s+. Which is 182 combos - 13 blockers from Kh2h which is something like 169.  If he was >100bb we could probably discount JJ+,ATs,AQ from this range but his not so will presum his a fish with a 4bet range of QQ, AK 50% of the time. 

Buttons attempt to steal range is like 65%. 

IF bb has a 4bet range we actually ahead of him in pure equity. If not he is aheaad of us by say 2%

BB4bets	38.3104%	37.7507%	1.1894%	1887535	59471
Ks2s	38.8931%	38.1903%	1.4757%	1909513	73783
65%	22.7965%	21.8252%	2.0127%	1091261	100634

BBno4B	40.2949%	39.7546%	1.1460%	1987731	57302
Ks2s	38.3904%	37.7333%	1.3797%	1886663	68983
65%	21.3147%	20.4353%	1.8244%	1021763	91220

As played, your getting 3:2.... looking to get bet raised is vvvv optimistic.  So imo you have to check/fold now unless villain bets less than 2.50... or has a tendency to splash around for stacks... then your gettings odds to see river. 

The overall essense of a 3bet 4bet 5bet range like this is to play our fold equity correctly in line  with SPRs, and abosolutey always have a plan for turn before we get there, even on brick turns, we can barrel air in some cases. 

shakinaces

Thanks for the detailed response TPTP - to clarify your recommending that in spots like this I should not be c-betting?

I've probably been applying an even tighter range than you suggest for BB - but that may be erroneous on my part (due to applying my own nitty range).  I'm not sure very low PP will be set-mining 10% of their stack, esp oop to the original raiser (who is still to act).  Not sure the lowest of suited connectors will be in the hand for the same reason?

As that puts him further ahead of me equity wise, does that increase the logic of c/r flop and c/f to anything but a really small turn bet?

If the flop gets checked through, should I then (delay) c-bet the turn?

Sorry for all the questions... guess this is the downside of a limited ability fish like myself trying to add 'C' to his 'AB' poker game!

TPTP123

This flop is basically the equivalent of A62r for 66 when you know villain doesnt have AA. Get it in as quickly as possible and try to see both window cards to come with K2s on a ArXs[3-5]s flop. The flop shouldn't get checked through, button will stab based on what you've said. But if it does, same reponse as when you bet flop -- we probably dont get stacks in. 

BB should open up is calling range giving that buttons limp call close action range is massive (in theory).  We should do the same if we're in bb position. 

Run some calcs with various calling ranges to see the variance.