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AK out of position on wet-ish flop

shakinacesshakinaces Member Posts: 1,590
edited November 2014 in Strategy
I got battered when this was shown on ch861 last Thursday, almost certainly fairly, but I'm not sure I 'get' why I should be betting out myself.

I don't expect Stribs to be getting too frisky here, FWIW I think 87s is the near the very bottom of her UTG open range and even then only because we're temporarily 4-handed. I 3-bet for value pre... with an expectation that only KK or AA were likely to be 4b and most other UTG opens would call.

Then on that flop it just feels like if I cbet:
A) I fold out all pocket pairs, suited connectors, any combo of K/Q/T with no heart
B) I run the risk of being bluff raised off the best hand (at this point) by hands such as Khx and Qhx
C) I'm inflating the pot with what is a fairly average hand, given that hands which will call me are going to be ahead/have decent equity (Khx Qhx / AJ / A5s / JJ / 55)... in fact, I'm struggling to see many hands that I'd be getting 'value' from in this spot?

So I took the c/c option which keeps in more bluffs and may also have hands like AQ/AT thinking they are getting value from (say) QQ/KK that would be in my SB 3b range and are often going to be checked on the flop.

The run-out from there was kind, I have to fold if the 4th heart comes but offsuit 9 and 2 made it an easier decision to call.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
POKEY2011 Sit out     
shakinaces Small blind  £0.05 £0.05 £20.57
GuyL2 Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £4.76
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • K
     
STR1BS Raise  £0.30 £0.45 £21.52
D_Legend Fold     
shakinaces Raise  £0.85 £1.30 £19.72
GuyL2 Fold     
STR1BS Call  £0.60 £1.90 £20.92
Flop
   
  • 5
  • J
  • A
     
shakinaces Check     
STR1BS Bet  £1.00 £2.90 £19.92
shakinaces Call  £1.00 £3.90 £18.72
Turn
   
  • 2
     
shakinaces Check     
STR1BS Bet  £1.95 £5.85 £17.97
shakinaces Call  £1.95 £7.80 £16.77
River
   
  • 9
     
shakinaces Check     
STR1BS Bet  £5.80 £13.60 £12.17
shakinaces Call  £5.80 £19.40 £10.97
STR1BS Show
  • 8
  • 7
   
shakinaces Show
  • A
  • K
   
shakinaces Win Pair of Aces £18.00  £28.97

Comments

  • mrdaviesmrdavies Member Posts: 475
    edited November 2014
    Against this OPs range, definite call all the way, never folding.

    WP too
  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited November 2014
    You don't understand why you should be betting?

    We almost certainly have the best hand and there are LOTS of worse ones that will call. Sure checking can keep in bluffs, but most people don't like bluffing or value betting thin, so they'll just be like 'boom I can to take a free card with my gutshot, FD, 2nd pr, weak TP' etc when they've have called a bet.
  • 77Chris9177Chris91 Member Posts: 375
    edited November 2014

    Not sure who 'battered' this line on the show but this doesn't look to bad to me. AK isn't a 3 street value hand here so checking certainly isn't terrible.

    However I think betting flop is better with this combo of AK (c/c with Ax with a heart so your protected on heart run outs)

  • TPTP123TPTP123 Member Posts: 492
    edited November 2014
    We bet for protection, simple, you can't check call 3 streets on that board in a 3bet pot oop versus an utg pfr!! Thats pew coming from me and i'm a pewtard. 

    Even if villain is terrible.... checkcalling is worse, your taking initiave by 3betting pre and then when you check you give back that intiative. folding flop is better than check calling out of position over multiple streets -- as you get rinsed!  However leading is better than both!!!!!  You might as well just flat pre and keep all his Ax hands in his range to extract value. 

    By c/callin 3 streets your charged 1+2+5+you might have to fold turn or river with the best hand, a cbet only cost you 1.5 to take the pot down or shutdown on turn... thats all reasoning you need. 

    Imagine villain raises 66+,76s+,QTs+,KTs+,A9s+,AT+,KT+,QJ+ pre... we 3bet and reduce villains range to say 66-JJ,76s-JTs,AQs-A9s,AQo... What exactly are you going to get value from? Nothing.  You bet for protection and claiming the dead money in the middle of the table instantly. 

    A) I fold out all pocket pairs, suited connectors, any combo of K/Q/T with no heart
    -You can't get value from keeping them in the hand... soo the argument of folding them out serves no purpose
    B) I run the risk of being bluff raised off the best hand (at this point) by hands such as Khx and Qhx
    -Your flipping at best here against Kh or Qh like 53/47 in your favour... hoever we're out of position which means that difference counts for nothing unless its all in
    C) I'm inflating the pot with what is a fairly average hand, given that hands which will call me are going to be ahead/have decent equity (Khx Qhx / AJ / A5s / JJ / 55)... in fact, I'm struggling to see many hands that I'd be getting 'value' from in this spot?
    -You inflated the pot anyway with c/calling multiple streets out of position. Agree that you get value from nothing, but we're not betting for value its for protection against draws, even 2 out draws in this case. 
  • TeddyBloatTeddyBloat Member Posts: 1,419
    edited November 2014
    whoa.

    we most definatley are NOT betting to protect from draws. we are betting for value against draws. villain is not folding a heart to a single bet. maybe if we pot it we get his weakest hearts to fold, but why would we want that?  we are looking to get value from draws, and want calls

    all non-made, non-draw hands have really crumby equity against our hand and we have no need to protect against his folding range. [we have solid equity agaisnt his folding range across most turns we dont need to protect against his folding range]. i'd be happier betting 5x or king high for protection reasons] we have no need to 'protect' our hand agaisnt say 7d6d.


    we are however getting value from flush draws. against his continuing range. however when we lead out we can expect 35% of his starting range to raise. and we have only 45% equity v that range and his range will self-polarise on blank runouts and he can put us in a gross river spot. with a range that is naturally balanced.

    he'll flat a lot of his hands and we have good equity against that range, and hearts are the only turns that we really worry about.

    however when we check we face his entire range, and a much wider range when he bets than when he calls or raises our bet. and we keep all that junk in that might bluff.

    we dont inflate the pot as we close the action on each street: when we lead we get put in a horrible spot and allow villain to inflate the pot when he raises [and he will raise around 35% of the time]

    the equities of the checking and leading will run pretty close and i dont think checking is a big mistake, if it is one at all.


    also:

    A) I fold out all pocket pairs, suited connectors, any combo of K/Q/T with no heart
    -You can't get value from keeping them in the hand... soo the argument of folding them out serves no purpose

    is demonstrably untrue as he got 3 streets of value from keeping one of those very hands in villains range.
  • TPTP123TPTP123 Member Posts: 492
    edited November 2014
    Whoa - isnt that horse for slow down!? Its too late, i've bolted out of the gate!! lol... Teddy. Imo. Your also doing it wrong!!!! I'm telling miss. 

    I have no history with villain in question, so I am talking about your average regfish here on sky. 

    But based on the utg pre range suggested and the 3bet call range specified we have no reason to think we can bet for value!!???? Its such a thin value bet that its virtually nonexistant value!!???

    We charge draws to extract value with good equity, we're chopping equity alot of the time OOP in this hand.  If we have position - then dynamics change drastically but being oop turns things on its head.  

    For instance, say the board is A97 we hold AK(line is identical) and we saw villains cards before they were dealt to him, he has 86, we extract value here hard with our 2:1 equity.  But in OP's spot it seems like every wants to extract value over multiple streets with our 5:4 equity.... which is essentially 1:1.... just does not compute to me. 

    I am happy to reconsider if you wish to post a more defined utg pfr/3bet call range for a fish. The one I provided was for regfish villains. 

    But based on this range...

    66-JJ,76s-JTs,AQs-A9s,AQo

    {AQs-A9s} 8 combos total. There's only 2 combos of each hand as Ah & As are blockers 
    {JJ} 3 combos. Which crush. 
    {TT-66} 30 combos in total. 15 of which hold hearts. Regfish don't float or probe bet, they fold or check behind. 
    {JTs} 3 combos.  Most likely do not bet and won't call a cbet. 
    {76s-T9s} 16 combos, 4 of which are made flushes. The regfish folds rest.  
    {AQo} 6 combos, 2 of which have Qh... this is only real calling hand villain has that we extract value from as a 5:4 fav.  

    3/66 = crush us
    2/66 = wafer thin value
    15/66 = get given a free pass if we dont cbet 
    46/66 = will fold or stab on turn/river... they may even rep a 4 tone board as well with air.... 

    maybe it is a good line against this villain, but i would not repeat against regfish. We are just putting ourselves in a horrible spot and i love tough spots post flop but this is not a good one. 
  • TeddyBloatTeddyBloat Member Posts: 1,419
    edited November 2014
    sorry i may be confused. i thought that you were arguing that we have to bet and the reason for betting is protection?

    that does not make sense. we dont fold any draws, and nor do we want to. we do however get solid value from his draws. it maybe a difference of semantics, but betting to 'protect' against draws makes no sense to me. we dont fold out any meaningful equity share and i any bets are value bets.

    lets say he takes the following range to the flop:

    76s-KQs, AQo+, A9-AKs, 66-JJ

    say he flats: QJ, JT, AxQh, AxKh, AT, A9, KhQh, TxTh, 9x9h, 8x8h.

    and raises: made flushes [apart from KQhh], JJ, 2pair, KhQx, KxQh, AK+AQ with no flush draw.

    folds everything else.

    he has very few air hands.

    he is flatting 40% of his starting range and we have 60% equity against that range and preserve that equity on 70% of turns. so we can get solid preservable value from 40% of his range. i'm not sure you can argue that betting is done for anything other than  value.

    however i do think that checking this board is a viable line against most players and not a huge error.


  • nmipeisnmipeis Member Posts: 43
    edited November 2014
    allthough it depends on how you construct your checking range as a whole, i see no reason why a portion of your good top pairs that dont have a heart shouldnt play this way. if you choose not to have hands like this in your c/c range then your check flop range will likely be insanely weighted with hands that will either fold now or fold eventually like kk,qq, jx. the truth is, in spots like this almost everyone has an under developed c/c or c/r range and thats why the villain in this hands is willing to go for a three street bluff, he probably does very well vs most ppls ranges with this line.
  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,901
    edited November 2014
    What else are you going to 3 bet, check flop with? 
    I understand the why, and it's not terrible to check but overall it's a bet only cause your c/c range is going to be too weak 
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