You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
AK out of position on wet-ish flop
shakinaces
Member Posts: 1,590
I got battered when this was shown on ch861 last Thursday, almost certainly fairly, but I'm not sure I 'get' why I should be betting out myself.
I don't expect Stribs to be getting too frisky here, FWIW I think 87s is the near the very bottom of her UTG open range and even then only because we're temporarily 4-handed. I 3-bet for value pre... with an expectation that only KK or AA were likely to be 4b and most other UTG opens would call.
Then on that flop it just feels like if I cbet:
A) I fold out all pocket pairs, suited connectors, any combo of K/Q/T with no heart
I run the risk of being bluff raised off the best hand (at this point) by hands such as Khx and Qhx
C) I'm inflating the pot with what is a fairly average hand, given that hands which will call me are going to be ahead/have decent equity (Khx Qhx / AJ / A5s / JJ / 55)... in fact, I'm struggling to see many hands that I'd be getting 'value' from in this spot?
So I took the c/c option which keeps in more bluffs and may also have hands like AQ/AT thinking they are getting value from (say) QQ/KK that would be in my SB 3b range and are often going to be checked on the flop.
The run-out from there was kind, I have to fold if the 4th heart comes but offsuit 9 and 2 made it an easier decision to call.
I don't expect Stribs to be getting too frisky here, FWIW I think 87s is the near the very bottom of her UTG open range and even then only because we're temporarily 4-handed. I 3-bet for value pre... with an expectation that only KK or AA were likely to be 4b and most other UTG opens would call.
Then on that flop it just feels like if I cbet:
A) I fold out all pocket pairs, suited connectors, any combo of K/Q/T with no heart
I run the risk of being bluff raised off the best hand (at this point) by hands such as Khx and QhxC) I'm inflating the pot with what is a fairly average hand, given that hands which will call me are going to be ahead/have decent equity (Khx Qhx / AJ / A5s / JJ / 55)... in fact, I'm struggling to see many hands that I'd be getting 'value' from in this spot?
So I took the c/c option which keeps in more bluffs and may also have hands like AQ/AT thinking they are getting value from (say) QQ/KK that would be in my SB 3b range and are often going to be checked on the flop.
The run-out from there was kind, I have to fold if the 4th heart comes but offsuit 9 and 2 made it an easier decision to call.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POKEY2011 | Sit out | ||||
| shakinaces | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £20.57 | |
| GuyL2 | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £4.76 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| STR1BS | Raise | £0.30 | £0.45 | £21.52 | |
| D_Legend | Fold | ||||
| shakinaces | Raise | £0.85 | £1.30 | £19.72 | |
| GuyL2 | Fold | ||||
| STR1BS | Call | £0.60 | £1.90 | £20.92 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| shakinaces | Check | ||||
| STR1BS | Bet | £1.00 | £2.90 | £19.92 | |
| shakinaces | Call | £1.00 | £3.90 | £18.72 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| shakinaces | Check | ||||
| STR1BS | Bet | £1.95 | £5.85 | £17.97 | |
| shakinaces | Call | £1.95 | £7.80 | £16.77 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| shakinaces | Check | ||||
| STR1BS | Bet | £5.80 | £13.60 | £12.17 | |
| shakinaces | Call | £5.80 | £19.40 | £10.97 | |
| STR1BS | Show |
| |||
| shakinaces | Show |
| |||
| shakinaces | Win | Pair of Aces | £18.00 | £28.97 | |
Comments
WP too
We almost certainly have the best hand and there are LOTS of worse ones that will call. Sure checking can keep in bluffs, but most people don't like bluffing or value betting thin, so they'll just be like 'boom I can to take a free card with my gutshot, FD, 2nd pr, weak TP' etc when they've have called a bet.
Not sure who 'battered' this line on the show but this doesn't look to bad to me. AK isn't a 3 street value hand here so checking certainly isn't terrible.
However I think betting flop is better with this combo of AK (c/c with Ax with a heart so your protected on heart run outs)
-Your flipping at best here against Kh or Qh like 53/47 in your favour... hoever we're out of position which means that difference counts for nothing unless its all in
we most definatley are NOT betting to protect from draws. we are betting for value against draws. villain is not folding a heart to a single bet. maybe if we pot it we get his weakest hearts to fold, but why would we want that? we are looking to get value from draws, and want calls
all non-made, non-draw hands have really crumby equity against our hand and we have no need to protect against his folding range. [we have solid equity agaisnt his folding range across most turns we dont need to protect against his folding range]. i'd be happier betting 5x or king high for protection reasons] we have no need to 'protect' our hand agaisnt say 7d6d.
we are however getting value from flush draws. against his continuing range. however when we lead out we can expect 35% of his starting range to raise. and we have only 45% equity v that range and his range will self-polarise on blank runouts and he can put us in a gross river spot. with a range that is naturally balanced.
he'll flat a lot of his hands and we have good equity against that range, and hearts are the only turns that we really worry about.
however when we check we face his entire range, and a much wider range when he bets than when he calls or raises our bet. and we keep all that junk in that might bluff.
we dont inflate the pot as we close the action on each street: when we lead we get put in a horrible spot and allow villain to inflate the pot when he raises [and he will raise around 35% of the time]
the equities of the checking and leading will run pretty close and i dont think checking is a big mistake, if it is one at all.
also:
is demonstrably untrue as he got 3 streets of value from keeping one of those very hands in villains range.
66-JJ,76s-JTs,AQs-A9s,AQo
that does not make sense. we dont fold any draws, and nor do we want to. we do however get solid value from his draws. it maybe a difference of semantics, but betting to 'protect' against draws makes no sense to me. we dont fold out any meaningful equity share and i any bets are value bets.
lets say he takes the following range to the flop:
76s-KQs, AQo+, A9-AKs, 66-JJ
say he flats: QJ, JT, AxQh, AxKh, AT, A9, KhQh, TxTh, 9x9h, 8x8h.
and raises: made flushes [apart from KQhh], JJ, 2pair, KhQx, KxQh, AK+AQ with no flush draw.
folds everything else.
he has very few air hands.
he is flatting 40% of his starting range and we have 60% equity against that range and preserve that equity on 70% of turns. so we can get solid preservable value from 40% of his range. i'm not sure you can argue that betting is done for anything other than value.
however i do think that checking this board is a viable line against most players and not a huge error.