You've obviously got me on semantics Lambert. I don't really care for Nash charts etc. All I can say to someone who is open shoving 77 for 18bb on Sky....good luck. Sorry for derail Shauny! Posted by hhyftrftdr
Haha. Full derail!!
Only kidding. Appreciate the input. Food for thought already. Cheers guys.
In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : lol fair do... ...although you aren't necessarily helping yourself become disassociated with the BBV crew when your first two posts see you claim you are the unluckiest person in the whole of poker and then admit that you probably did win some flips but only posted the losing ones. But good luck with your quest all the same and I hope things turn around for you, winning is way more fun Posted by shakinaces
I'm not being funny here, but you don't read things properly. When did I say I thought I was the unlukiest player in poker? I said I feel unlucky in flip situations. Nothing else. Then I said I would discount the first 3 I posted because I couldn't find any winning flips in my hh.
Not getting into a discussion about it. Just trying to correct your many mistakes.
Can I just say that open shoving 22 is always the correct ITM +EV Nash chart thing to do at any table with any number of blinds, anytime... GL Shauny on your "log"... ahem, diary
Pretty sure open shoving 77 for 18BB with no antes (and not in a BH) is going to be -EV from that position. Loads of people talk about the mathematical facts without showing any workings.... Posted by bbMike
As a further derail, 77 is an unexploitable and guarenteed +ev shove heads-up, up to about 65 - 70bb. However dont look at nash charts. Nash caluclates unexploitable shoving RANGES when shove/fold are the only options. for example 54s is a nash shove hu over 20bb, but only as part of the nash range. if you minraise all other hands then shoving 54s would be very exploitable.
heads up, 77 is never exploitable and always +ev under 60bbs it is so strong. And it is chubukov charts that you want to consult to see guarenteed + ev shoving hands for various stacks - if you so wish.
Also unexploitable does NOT = +ev. The nash shovd range is -ev for the SB over 6bb and at 16bb is a terrible proposition for the sb, to the tune o around 13/100bb if I remember correctly.
Also all these things are usually calculated HU. 6max ranges will be very different.
Throw those charts away except when hu and under 6bb
In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : That's not possible. You might experience bigger swings but you won't become a losing player by making +EV shoves. Fwiw I have said multiple times that its not optimal imo and its not what I'd do. Although I might just open ship in later position in a BH. Posted by Lambert180
oh yes it is!
by leaking value even if +ev you reduce your chances of running deep thus losing ev over the mtt as a whole.
ps nice thread shauny but not for the reasons in the initial post :-)
In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : oh yes it is! by leaking value even if +ev you reduce your chances of running deep thus losing ev over the mtt as a whole. ps nice thread shauny but not for the reasons in the initial post :-) Posted by GELDY
cheers GELDY.
I think from now on i'm just gonna fold 77. Here's me thinking JJ was a tricky hand......
If we get called ONLY by TT+ and AQ+ that's barely 4% of hands, so then they fold 96% of the time which is what makes it +EV, I was just picking up on the 'its never a winning play' line. Even against that range we still got 36% equity anyway, to add to the insane amount of folds we get. I agree 16BB is tons on sky, personally I'd minraise and then we either play postflop if flatted or have to decide whether we're calling it off or folding depending on who is it that shoves. Posted by Lambert180
Versus this calling range from the CO we get called 12% of the time.
7 out of 8 times we get it through and win 1.5bbs (+10.5bbs)
1 out of 8 times we are called. A 1/3rd of the time we win 20bbs, 2/3rds of the time we lose 18bbs. (-16bbs)
Not very good at maths so had to round the numbers down a bit think it's something like that though.
In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : Versus this calling range from the CO we get called 12% of the time. 7 out of 8 times we get it through and win 1.5bbs (+10.5bbs) 1 out of 8 times we are called. A 1/3rd of the time we win 20bbs, 2/3rds of the time we lose 18bbs. (-16bbs) Not very good at maths so had to round the numbers down a bit think it's something like that though. Posted by seanallen
That's more like it..!
Let's say the calling range is top 5% of hands and that he shoving through 4 players.
He's getting called 1/5 times, so 4 times he picks up 1.5BB. 0.66 times he loses 18BB and 0.33 times wins ~19BB.
So that looks like the most marginal thing ever, very slightly +EV! Shows the power of fold equity but also shows that it's far more profitable to shove from a later position. Also shows that we can shove say 44 here and get the same result.
Cross posted with Teddy, yeah looks about right except in this spot I thought it was an 18BB shove and we're getting called more than 12% shoving UTG 5-handed. Agree that as the range widens it becomes more EV though think AQ really is bottom for this sizing and we prob add 99 before AJ..?
Think what this all tells us is that the shove there is unnecessary at best!
yeah, i dont know enough about ICM / 6max MTT ranges to comment on the optimal play in MTT's, but pocket pairs do really well in raised pots and also against competent 3bt jamming ranges [though maybe not from UTG, again this aint my format]. but PP's capture a lot of the pot post flop basically and minr is likely to be a much better play in pure chip ev and overall MTT play
People in general more wary of a minr UTG and fold way more than they should. Difficult to place a number though but at these stakes you're probably not getting shoved on by a much wider range than the range that calls a shove
Comments
TBF Shauny, you said you feel like the unluckiest guy in poker. Tongue in cheek I'm sure, much like Shakin's post is I imagine.
Feels refreshing to be the referee in a thread for once
GL Shauny on your "log"... ahem, diary
So that's 77 covered.....what we doing with 66?
I think from now on i'm just gonna fold 77. Here's me thinking JJ was a tricky hand......
7 out of 8 times we get it through and win 1.5bbs (+10.5bbs)
1 out of 8 times we are called. A 1/3rd of the time we win 20bbs, 2/3rds of the time we lose 18bbs. (-16bbs)
Not very good at maths so had to round the numbers down a bit think it's something like that though.
EV(bet) = (1-F)*(CF*P1 -
where
f = fold equity
cf = our capture factor [how often we win]
P1 = pot when called
B = our bet
P2= pot we win when villains fold
so using your numbers
EV(bet) = .12*(.33*32 - 16) + (.88*1.5)
= + 1.32bb from start of hand
very decent baseline to judge other actions by.
doesnt consider ICM, the value of playing lower variance poker v the table etc etc