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call or not to call
rspca12
Member Posts: 618
On ft of super roller 6 left have 500k stack 1.8 million chips in play.
solak opans to 20k 240k stack
kosb shove 400k on button
i have ak on big blind what to do the only stack thank can affect me, if i win i have over 50% of chips in play. or should i consider laddering and keep out of trouble.
Comments
The payjumps are pretty big at this stage of an MTT, I aint checked the lobby but I'd imagine the payouts were in the region of....
£1.1k
£1.4k
£2.1k
£3.4k
£4.1k
£5.4k
I just don't think we need to cold call a 40BB shove to effectively flip for almost our entire stack when we're CL. Obv we aint always flipping, sometimes we're chopping (most of the time) against AK, occasionally we'll be crushed, occasionally we'll have them crushed but our equity V his range will be close to a flip imo. If we feel like we have an edge then this spot isn't giving us the chance to realise it.
Paul, payouts were much flatter than that for 6th-3rd. Between 1k and 1.9k for those spots, fwiw (if memory serves me right!).
I think we can assume Solack is folding almost always if we call, he might call it off with QQ+ and that's about it imo.
So if we assume for ease he always folds, we are calling 390k to win the 435k already in there (Solly's 20k, villians 400k, SB 5k + BB 10k).
I don't know anything about KOSB, but people don't 3bet jam into 24xBB stacks light, especially not when they have 40xBB and are covered by someone behind, and especially not when they're sitting pretty on the Roller FT so I think maybe 88+ and AK is fair/maybe optimistic and against that range we are 42.29% v 57.71% so that wouldn't be +EV.
Even if we stretch it to 88+ and AQ+ which I think is really getting on the optimistic side we still only have 48.88% v 51.12% so it's vvv marginally +EV.
If Solly does call then our equity just gets really bad for that 720k ish (240 x 3) side pot.
I'm all for the 'going for the win' mentality, coming top 3 in MTTs is what it's all about but that doesn't translate to having to take every single tiny +EV spot and knowingly calling it off to flip with very deep stacks in these spots.
Can understand why people would pass with laddering considerations and whatnot but the real, real chunky sums are in the top 3, and winning this makes us pretty much a lock for a podium finish. Another thing was there was no real short stack. Think Solack was the SS but still had 20bb or so, so no real immediate ICM issues, rest of the stacks were quite flat.
Paul (and anyone else), out of interest and in a vacuum, had the villain done a standard 3bet, do you 4bet all in from the blinds, as the chip leader, with AK?
308,214,720 trials (Exhaustive)
2) Agreed. I'm sure ICM would be able to solve this problem too? Lets say if we call and win we are going to make £4.3k on avg. If we call and lose we'll probably make around £1.4k on avg. If we don't call we'll still be in good shape to make final 3 at least and will probably make at least £3k on avg. If we have 55% chance of winning hand and combine first 2 figures based on that (4.3x0.55)+(1.4x0.45) = 2.995k ~ £3k. So according to this made up ICM calculation (which I don't believe will be too far from an accurate one) folding does just as well as calling.
If anything, the £3k for folding might be slightly on the conservative side since a top 3 will probably occur at least 50% of the time and 3rd place alone is worth more than £3k.
3) I wouldn't know haha! To an extent, yep. I did give a fairly wide range below - I don't think you can get much wider though?
4) Agreed - put in my calcs.
5) But against the softest player do we really want to be risking it on a flip?
7) We're chip leader. We don't have to take every potential flip - even if we don't find a better hand from now till the end we'll have spots where we can put our chips in with 2 chances to win.
If we go back to my brief ICM calculation we see that 55% equity is on the cusp - where we'll make £3k on avg whether we fold or call. (but I believe we could make slightly more than £3k by folding than I predicted)
If we have 60%+ equity then it looks to become a clearer cut call. QQ would have over 65% and be a clear call. JJ (even if we include a couple KK combos) would have 64%. TT on the other hand would only have 52% and be a fold.
So basically we can cold call a shove with JJ-AA and it be good. We don't need to add in AK to that. Suited maybe is good enough but o/s definitely not. It's not like we'll have many spots like this anyway. Most of the time we will raise/get shoved on (and have better equity to call off because we've already put a couple BB's into the pot) or we'll 3-bet shove (and have fold equity + equity we have when called)
If we give villain a range of calling our 4-bet AI as 99-AA, AJ+ then with AKs we have 51% equity - so sightly less than we have by just calling his shove with AKs. However, we also now have fold equity. Villain might fold some of his value 3-bets and will fold all of his bluff 3-bets. So providing villain is bluffing enough (or value 3-betting wide enough that he might fold some of his value 3-bets) then we just have a very profitable shove.
BTW: Before I did the calculations and suppose I was in game I would probably end up calling AKs and folding AKo (but both decisions would have felt close to me in-game!) Nice to see that the calculations I've done sort of back that up. AKs seems like a very close fold and AKo seems slightly clearer fold but both are pretty close.
Just to clarify, the payouts (from memory) were....
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
3.4
5.3
Obviously give or take a few quid either side.
Yep, seeing him shove later with AJ/AT and double someone up would be annoying. Equally (or far more) annoying though would be to call and lose against 55 and end up busting in 6th place after being chip leader! I get your point about playing for the win and prestige and if as the Maths shows it's a close decision then I wouldn't blame you for taking the slightly less -ev decision!
I think what the money means to you is something that should also affect the Maths in these situations. If your more than rolled enough for this tournament then always taking the most +ev decisions is best. If you won via satellite then most of the tournament you should still take the most +ev decisions but when it comes to the FT even though you might make more money on avg by calling in a certain spot, folding could be the correct decision for you since it's a spot that won't come up often enough for you to level out the variance (and avg's)
It's also why cashing out has become popular within the betting industry. Say you have a 6 team accumulator at odds of 1000/1 and a fiver on it. Cashing out for X amount is always slightly -ev? I think (it's BE at the best anyway) but most people that don't put on that many bets won't often have a 1000/1 shot have a chance of winning. And so better to take the money whilst you have it then risk it all losing!
Anyway would love to know what Hero did here and result?
And yeah OK that messes up my made up ICM calcs!!
Probably means we will get less money on avg by folding than my initial suggestion of £3k (I dunno, lets say if we fold our % of coming in following positions is: 1st 25%, 2nd 35%, 3rd: 20%, 4th: 10%, 5th: 7% 6th: 3%)
5400x0.25 = 1350
3260x0.35 = 1141
1550x0.1 = 155
5th and 6th place are going to be around 120 between them so actually yeah that's still almost £3k we'll get on avg if we fold now. I dunno this is all just speculation though!
Villain had QQ.
Anyone can run some numbers and see if we (in theory) make money calling with AKo here, but to understand exactly how well (or not so as the case may be) our hand is doing its imprtant to understand the situation completely, this includes our opponents tendancies, his ability level, is this his standard thing to shove huge stacks preflp, his mindstate (has he just lost a big pot, hence the 40bb shove etc) and also how the result of us winning or losing the hand impacts on our ability to make the maximum amount of money from the game (is our edge on the remaining players big enough that we can pass up marginally +EV situations?).
I havnt read all of the above replies, but, im not sure if its been mentioned that sky (for some unknown reason) dont have antes in there mtt's yet, which will differ ranges appreciably.
I dont play many games on sky, unless its UKOPS (insert brag that i just received my 2 bracelets in the post for last months series), so i dont know of your ability level rspca12, but i think its importnt that all poker players are realistic, something that alot of people struggle with. If your a professional player and you think you have a appreciable "edge" on the remaining players, and with no antes and a good structure, i think we make a fairly "easy" fold and look to win pots without getting in 100bb pots with AKo, yet on the other hand, if we would consider ourselves an underdog against the remaining players or feel that were playing against players who have more experience than us, then i think calling is fine.
If you have any questions about what ive wrote, feel free to ask me privately, but as i said, i think your opening post needs to be a little more detailed and have some insight to opponent (if possible) as using all information available.
last thing, with regards to someone just asigning our opponent 88-jj and ATs-AK.. How did u work this range out? I assume just based on the fact that our opponent would just 3bet with AA/KK/QQ right? I think this assumption is probably a bit too general, and that (once again) we need more information. Its fine having presumptions about peoples ranges, but them presumptions go out the window when were faced with such a unique situation (were not going to see a 3bet shove for 40bb that often).
In summary, i would probably fold, but for you it may be that calling is fine.
wp on making the final m8