Asked Ryan Spittles.................

rusty762

I asked Ryan Spittles on last nights Christmas Cracker show how he would play a certain situation in a Turbo situation that I was faced with in last night's Christmas Cracker Turbo. question as follows :-

'You are seated in the big blind and have just 12 big blinds left, and as usual in this turbo situation blinds are coming round soon. Mid level of tourny and you need to get going.

There is an all in from a 11bb stack and a call from the table big stack.

Assuming you do not have a premium holding would you consider gambling for a treble up in this type of tounament? And if so how wide would you call given the above dynamic ?

I ask for this advice as I thought I may well have the equity to win 37/38 bigs '

I never posted the hand to the show, just the written situational question.

Ryan , as usual gave his professional well analysed view, but I would also like to throw this situation out to the community sky regs too for their opinion ,and have attached the hand for you to appraise.

Given the dynamic and likely holdings of the shover and caller

What would you do ? 

 I know the table chip leader is a sky reg with a strong track record of success. 

and also If Ryan would like to add anything to this thread that would be great too.

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceNagromSmall blind 100.00100.005040.00rusty762Big blind 200.00300.002507.50 Your hole cardsK9   DISCO245Fold    ****All-in 2187.502487.500.00******Call 2187.504675.0013117.76 Fold     Fold    rusty762?????    ****Show

   *******Show

   

hhyftrftdr

I'd be more inclined to gamble with a 78s or similar. K9s could well be dominated by a better K. 12bb in a turbo isn't too short, but you're well off the money so can't blame you going for a spin.

Glenelg

In Response to Re: Asked Ryan Spittles.................:

I'd be more inclined to gamble with a 78s or similar. K9s could well be dominated by a better K. 12bb in a turbo isn't too short, but you're well off the money so can't blame you going for a spin.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Pretty much this ^^^^.   I personally find K9  seldom flops well for me. I didn't hear what Ryan said so would be interesting to hear his thoughts.   I'm guessing table dynamics would have a BIG bearing in this situation?

DOHHHHHHH

We don't have 50% equity against any single hand in either range?

K9s not even close to a call v the first shove nevermind 2.

Looking at maybe AQ+ and 10s maybe? Depending on the players? I'm too loose in sky mtts though ! 

rusty762

In Response to Re: Asked Ryan Spittles.................:

We don't have 50% equity against any single hand in either range? K9s not even close to a call v the first shove nevermind 2. Looking at maybe AQ+ and 10s maybe? Depending on the players? I'm too loose in sky mtts though ! 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Thanks for input Dohhhhhhh , and yes it looks poor against the holdings you suggest,(26%) but if not K9s are there any hands you would call off with or not at all?

I suppose when I fired off the original question to Ryan it was not particularly about K9s. It was just this hand that prompted me to ask the expert (Ryan) ''are there hands (assuming you do not have a premium) you would consider calling with given this situation? ''

I was really wanting to know wether a pro ,such as Ryan, would actually go for this considering the reward, and the given dynamic, and if so what's his likely calling range.

Incidentally,I did fold this hand because I thought it too weak to stand a chance (having said that it did have 38% equity when cards were on their backs !

cheers

hhyftrftdr

Think if you want pure gamble, any medium to high suited connector, plus selected suited broadway cards like J10s. Would much rather gamble with the above than 44, A9, KJo etc.

Think Doh might have missed the gambling aspect of the question, his calling range in his post is pretty solid should we not fancy a spin up.

rusty762

In Response to Re: Asked Ryan Spittles.................:

Think if you want pure gamble, any medium to high suited connector, plus selected suited broadway cards like J10s. Would much rather gamble with the above than 44, A9, KJo etc. Think Doh might have missed the gambling aspect of the question, his calling range in his post is pretty solid should we not fancy a spin up.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

cheers HH (and pretty much what Spittles said on the show too) thanks for your input

F_Ivanovic

Yeah I mean in a tourney that's really top heavy like the Christmas Turbo taking marginal -ev situations early on to go for a spin up can be a good idea. Against a loose shover and loose caller then would definitely consider calling small-medium pairs since we could often be up vs 3 overcards instead of 4 (eg. 22 vs AK and A8 is 40% so clearly +ev)

K9s against pretty loose ranges would be a losing call - with money invested in the pot I think we need about 30% and only have just over 28%... but yeah, if you think both villains can be pretty wide and it's a tournament you'd rather not concentrate too much on unless you're doing well - or if you're in a tournament and have very little edge at your table esp when a short-stack then again I'd gamble.

As usual a lot of it is depends. 

Hold'em Simulation ? 
600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
Ks9s	28.14%	160,830	16,887
A5+, Q9+, K9+, 22+	32.59%	186,516	18,967
A8+, QT+, KJ+, 55+	39.27%	231,900	8,243

CraigSG1

You have more time in a turbo than ppl think so its an easy fold. As for calling ranges then 99+, AJs+, AQo+

Its much more important to find spots where you can get in first.

rusty762

In Response to Re: Asked Ryan Spittles.................:

Yeah I mean in a tourney that's really top heavy like the Christmas Turbo taking marginal -ev situations early on to go for a spin up can be a good idea. Against a loose shover and loose caller then would definitely consider calling small-medium pairs since we could often be up vs 3 overcards instead of 4 (eg. 22 vs AK and A8 is 40% so clearly +ev) K9s against pretty loose ranges would be a losing call - with money invested in the pot I think we need about 30% and only have just over 28%... but yeah, if you think both villains can be pretty wide and it's a tournament you'd rather not concentrate too much on unless you're doing well - or if you're in a tournament and have very little edge at your table esp when a short-stack then again I'd gamble. As usual a lot of it is depends.  Hold'em Simulation  ?   600,000 trials (Randomized) Hand Equity Wins Ties Ks9s 28.14% 160,830 16,887 A5+, Q9+, K9+, 22+ 32.59% 186,516 18,967 A8+, QT+, KJ+, 55+ 39.27% 231,900 8,243
Posted by F_Ivanovic

thanks for your input...appreciated

rusty762

In Response to Re: Asked Ryan Spittles.................:

You have more time in a turbo than ppl think so its an easy fold. As for calling ranges then 99+, AJs+, AQo+ Its much more important to find spots where you can get in first.
Posted by CraigSG1

agree with you Craig with this particular hand, hence the fold, and thanks for your thoughts...much appreciated