hi merry xmas and all that. was playing a live comp yesterday 100 pound buy 700 players down to final 12. 12 million chips in play i have 1.2 million, so just above avg. and we 6 handed on two tables, blinds are 20k-40k so im 30 bigsd deep. i open utg to 80k with jj utg+1 calls 600 k stack cut off passes button shove 800k. small blind tanks call 500k big blind passes. and up to me what to do. i passed. button player agro and just lost big pot small blind tightish. prize pool was something like this.
12 -9 700
8-5 1-2k
4 3k
3 4.5 k
2 10k
1 16.5k
Comments
It's probably close chip EV wise, not done numbers but instinctively I'd say it's probably +EV to call but think I'd fold myself just to take a lower variance route, especially live where people's ranges to GII pre tend to be tighter imo.
The other thing to bear in mind is the payout structure. The payouts are relatively flat until the massive jump from 3rd to 2nd. You have got to be aiming harder than usual for top 2 here.
For me, this is an instant reshove, making it look as though my call was so obvious I did not need to think. I think that I would be at least 50/50 to win the hand (as it stands now) and I am going to need to double up pretty soon anyway.
I might be an ABC Geriatric, but at least I'm not a nitty one
Interesting spot.