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Is my play here going to be profitable in the long run??
It is worth noting that the bb is away which could be a factor in villains raise. Villain is a winning mtt reg, fairly wide opening range.
This is tonights main BH.....my thinking was he could be at it with junk or it's more than likely a race and I could even be a mile ahead so I shoved. I appreciate it's a high variance route and in retrospect I could have called and maybe took it down on the flop.
Was I too aggro here or right to go for it given the fact I could also get the fold pre flop???
This is tonights main BH.....my thinking was he could be at it with junk or it's more than likely a race and I could even be a mile ahead so I shoved. I appreciate it's a high variance route and in retrospect I could have called and maybe took it down on the flop.
Was I too aggro here or right to go for it given the fact I could also get the fold pre flop???
| waller02 | Small blind | 100.00 | 100.00 | 9976.25 | |
| cheeseking | Big blind | 200.00 | 300.00 | 10057.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
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| Bake | Fold | ||||
| oldgolf | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 400.00 | 700.00 | 2951.25 | |
| mwm72 | Fold | ||||
| waller02 | All-in | 9976.25 | 10676.25 | 0.00 | |
| cheeseking | Fold | ||||
| x | All-in | 2951.25 | 13627.50 | 0.00 | |
| waller02 | Unmatched bet | 6725.00 | 6902.50 | 6725.00 | |
| waller02 | Show |
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| x | Show |
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| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Turn | |||||
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| River | |||||
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| x | Win | Full House, 9s and Queens | 6902.50 | 6902.50 | |
Comments
The hand....meh its a BH main, just go for it. Don't like peeling, don't like folding, leaves only one option.
given he is raising wide it is hard to construct a competent 3bet range that QJs doesnt have enough equity to call off against. for example even if waller was a super-nit shoving only:22-AA, A7s+, A9o+ and KQs then it has enough raw equity to make a profitable chip-ev call. and that is against a 8.5% nit-range that only comprises hands that QJs need to hit against and a fair few hands that CRUSH QJs [AJ, AQ, KQs, JJ+]
given that villain is competent and knows waller is competent enough to both:
a. know that villain is raising wide
and
b. be able to do summat about it
then he has to assume that waller is shoving wider than 8.5% pure thick value. adding just 3 bluffs to wallers range means that he is printing chips. also waller may not be shoving KK and AA [maybe not QQ and JJ either] so that will make the call better. if villain is raising wide then he needs to call appropriately wide or he will be owned by someone with a wide shoving range.
that said these are pure equity numbers and there will be ICM considerations, but from a raw equity standpoint folding QJs @ 17bb will be a mistake after raising v anyone who is not an uber nit.
for reference i cant remember the last time i folded suited broadway pre-flop in a hyper heads up game and they go upto 25bb. equity wise they are so rarely folds once you have so much as a small blind invested in the pot.
i dont know much about MTT ranges 17bb deep, or the correct ICM numbers but if waller is shoving as wide as 8.5% + 3 bluffs then its a REALLY good call equity wise
QJs plays so well post flop that the value of being flatted IP would make it so that minr/calling beats open shoving, esp given that many of the folds you get shoving you still get by minraising. also if villains are debating whether 88 is too thin v a wide opening range then minr will dominate shoving.
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i mean its basically break even in terms of chips v: 44+, A9+.
take smaller pockets and KK / AA out and against 77-QQ, A9+ its a clear call equity wise.
ICM wise it might be bad, but if waller is ever bluffing then its a great call equity wise:
when he minr folds he ends up with a stack of 2951.25
when he calls v a range of:
99-QQ, A9+, 78s
he ends up with a stack of:
[.54*0]+[.46*6902.5] = 3175.15
thats over 1bb better than folding against pretty tight range with only one bluff combo
add in KK and AA and its a clear fold but the more bluffs you bundle in the better it gets.
add in one more bluff and 55-77 and it gets close to 2bb better than folding.
dunno how much edge you need in these spots, and being 1 - 2bb better off probably aint worth busting 54% of the time i agree.
I'm not a total nit but I'm also not shoving as wide as some of the ranges you have mentioned. I had been 3betting but not to the extent that would give anyone at the table the impression I had a wide 3b range.
Dohhh is right about the vast majority of players on sky, even the ones considered to be loose, having a tighter 3b shoving range than you mention. For this reason I can't see calling off with QJs being profitable?? My knowledge of the game is limited though!
might be worth looking at expanding a 3bet bluffing range v wide openers if calling QJs is incorrecrt, as once you remove QJs, KQs, JTs etc from minr-calling ranges it doesnt leave much value leftt to call with.
if villain is raising a value heavy range of:
22-AA, A5+ K9o+,KTs, Qto+, Q9s+, T9s+, JTo,
but calling only:
88-AA, A9+
then he is folding 69% of the time.
the ev of 3betting 72o @ 17bb is thus:
EV(bet) = (1-F)*(CF*P1 -
F = fold equity
CF = equity when called
B = bet size
P1 pot size when called
P2 pot raked in when we get a fold.
plugging in numbers
EV(bet) = (1-.69)*(.17*35 - 16.5) + (F*5)
EV(bet) = (.31)*(-11.05) + (3.45)
+ .18bb thats .68 bb better than folding
so 3bet shoving 72o is more than a SB better than folding v someone opening just 14% of hands here. that's crazy.
shoving 72o is never going to be correct MMT strat, but it illustrates a point. if peeps are minrasing wider and not correct to call wide then 3 bet jamming suited connected bluffs will be insanely good.
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when you say he's opening wide here do you mean 25% of hands or 50-60%
lets look at a 25% range
22-AA, A2+, K8s+, K9o+,Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, 76s+, T8o+, 86s+
thats 24% of hands
if he calls only 77+, A9+ then we have 80% fold equity.
shoving 53s has an ev of
EV(bet) = (1-.8)*(.25*35 - 16.5) + (.8*5)
EV(bet) = (.21)*(-8.75) + (4)
EV(bet) = 2.45bb from start of hand
so it's 2.95bb better than folding
shoving JTs is 3.5 bb better than folding.
even if we realise 100% of our equity post flop after flatting JTs [impossibe OOP] we have 45% equity v villains opening range.
so the ev of flatting is .45*5-1.5 = .75bb from start of hand.
so 3bt jamming /> /> flatting.
if villain is opening wider, say 50% then those numbers only go one way.
this situation is artificial as the away bb makes everything SOOO much better. but the numbers would be pretty good button v BB if the SB folds. might be summat for mtt heads to look into with more standard ranges and ICM numbers added in. i'm hand waving a lot with the assumed ranges.
I enjoy your posts though teddy, I have never really looked into the maths side of things in depth and it certainly helps (once I get my head around it!!)
re: the bolded section, I don't see how expanding a 3b bluffing range can do any good, because whether or not it is correct to call with the QJs a lot will still call, certainly in this case where I would be in worse shape. Or have I totally misunderstood?? (quite possible) lol
when bundliung value hands into minraise-call ranges you quickly run out of pocket pairs and good Ax. if people are raising wide but folding KQs, QJs, etc at 17 bb, then shoving can be very profitable just due to fold equity. obviously you would usually be worried about the BB waking up with a hand. but if somene is opening unopened pots on the button really wide [and i've seen some regs advocating really wide ranges in that spot] but only calling a tight range, and the SB fold to your BB then you could probably look to jam a fairly wide range.
you'd want lots of fold equity though as that will both increase ev and more importantly reduce variance which is really important when you put your tournament on the line for an expected 1.5-3bb profit.
i think one range i posted above had 80% folds when shoved over. that is just asking to be exploited.
it's not even a high vairance play:
80% of the time you win a 5bb pot uncontested
6% of the time you double up
14% of the time you bust
average profit 3bb
so a 3bb gain when 86% of the time you either double up or win a 5bb pot is well worth the risk of busting 14% of the time.
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it is a juicy situation due to the away players dead BB, but even if you were the BB and the SB folded having 80% fold equity would be an insanely profitable place to be when considering shoving.
you MTT players will be able to use more accurate raise / call ranges. but 88 is such a good shove here imo.
I have put little to no effort into poker as far as studying is concerned and this is something I want to change this year. You advice is great, you back up what you say with the maths to prove it. Much appreciated.
i suck at mtts and if my assumptions are wrong then the conclusions will be meaningless, but hopefully peeps can benefit from the discussion anyway by using their own ranges / intuition.
dont forget that 3-bet shoving has to be better than flatting and some hands flat so well that you really need high fold equity to make shoving better.
There aren't really any ICM considerations at this point and so mostly you don't want to be folding when you have +ev oppertunities. This is a BH though and bad players will chase bounties wide - and we can wait a bit and GII with much better equity. (like vs some players you can jam KK and be happy they'll call with 40%+) But if blinds are going up soon, then we'll have less time to wait for a hand to GII with.