River spot 250bb deep

77Chris91

Reg in question is probably the best I have come across. Really well balanced and is a huge winner at 100/200nl.

100nl

UTG - 135.78

MP - 34.67

CO - 243.89 (Hero)  Qs 10s 

BTN - 291.67 (Villain)

SB - 55.00

BB - 101.50

Preflop - 2 Folds, Hero raises to 2.50. Btn raises to 8.50. 2 Folds. Hero calls    Pot 18.50

Flop - 3s 7s 10c   Hero checks. Btn checks. 

Turn - 3s 7s 10c 5d     Hero bets 13.50. Btn calls.   Pot 45.50

River - 3s 7s 10c 5d 5s    Hero bets 38.50. Btn raises to 269.67 all in. 

Hero?!?!

Villain has been 3-betting me quite a lot being deep and ip. Will be balanced enough to check some Axss on the flop I think. Feel like I'm folding way to much if I fold here but in my experience regs just don't bluff nearly enough in these spots especially 250bb deep.

Thought? 

F_Ivanovic

Only hand that makes sense for value is 57s and 55 (of which there are only 3 combos) I can't imagine villain checking back a nut flush draw OTF (although you seem to think otherwise?!) - just misses out on a ton of potential value. But, even if he does sometimes check it with the odd combo it then seems strange to overbet jam for value when we can have boats/FH's - and the flushes we do have are mostly going to be folding to such a jam. 

Given we can have FH's I don't think we're folding too much if we fold here (esp since it's going to be such a rare spot) but I mean we have a decent bluff-catcher. Agree that regs don't bluff too much here but you said you rate him at one of the best at this level and I think enough of the time he has bare As and just overbet jams thinking unless we have a FH he's going to get it through.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: River spot 250bb deep:

Only hand that makes sense for value is 57s and 55 (of which there are only 3 combos) I can't imagine villain checking back a nut flush draw OTF (although you seem to think otherwise?!) - just misses out on a ton of potential value. But, even if he does sometimes check it with the odd combo it then seems strange to overbet jam for value when we can have boats/FH's - and the flushes we do have are mostly going to be folding to such a jam.  Given we can have FH's I don't think we're folding too much if we fold here (esp since it's going to be such a rare spot) but I mean we have a decent bluff-catcher. Agree that regs don't bluff too much here but you said you rate him at one of the best at this level and I think enough of the time he has bare As and just overbet jams thinking unless we have a FH he's going to get it through.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Yeh I do think villain can have some Axss here. Seen them check some stong draws/sets on these sort of boards before. I assume its to keep some combos in his range that oppos would have discounted. Your right that you lose value by not betting but that could be offset by the times you can make people make mistakes in big pots like this because 'he can't have a nut flush here etc' Idk but it makes them really tough to play against.

I'm not sure but I think he could potentially jam a nut flush knowing he's not repping many value combos? I pretty much thought the same as you that his bluffs are basically gonna be bare As turned into a bluff but at what frequency he rips these in on the river I'm not sure...

F_Ivanovic

I said 55 in previous post but forgot it's 3bet pot, he's not 3-betting 55 there I presume? I mean 22 and/or 33 for 3-bet bluff candidates when deep seems enough hand combos. Obv not 3-betting 77 and we block TT + if you've been playing back at him by 4-betting at all then it just really sucks to be facing a 4-bet with TT this deep. So yeah, even if he's capable of checking back sets it's just so unlikely he has one here. (when you factor in turn check as well)

Can you remember any hands where he's checked back nut flush draw or sets? Obv stack size in them hands is important. Plus the opponent he was facing. I mean I generally don't slow play nut hand or draws ever because it's so rare to face an opponent who will try and use that fact to exploit me. (eg. They'll overbet turn and/or river or c/r and bet big knowing we're capped) - In this hand for example, suppose a flush hits the turn. If you have any high spade at all, you can donk 1.5x pot and just put villain in a horrible spot where he has to over-fold. Obv you will do the same with some flushes too.) And you can again bet big OTR. 

But most opponents just aren't making such plays, so FPS (or balanced play) is largely over-rated. OK, he might get a call from you here because his line looks FOS - but he could very easily get a fold from you and lost a ton of value. Whereas had he bet flop with his NFD you'd definitely give him at least 3-streets of value when a flush hits. In other words, the hands he's trying to get hero'd by now would have got him plenty of value had he not slow-played.

77Chris91

In Response to Re: River spot 250bb deep:

I said 55 in previous post but forgot it's 3bet pot, he's not 3-betting 55 there I presume? I mean 22 and/or 33 for 3-bet bluff candidates when deep seems enough hand combos. Obv not 3-betting 77 and we block TT + if you've been playing back at him by 4-betting at all then it just really sucks to be facing a 4-bet with TT this deep. So yeah, even if he's capable of checking back sets it's just so unlikely he has one here. (when you factor in turn check as well) Can you remember any hands where he's checked back nut flush draw or sets? Obv stack size in them hands is important. Plus the opponent he was facing. I mean I generally don't slow play nut hand or draws ever because it's so rare to face an opponent who will try and use that fact to exploit me. (eg. They'll overbet turn and/or river or c/r and bet big knowing we're capped) - In this hand for example, suppose a flush hits the turn. If you have any high spade at all, you can donk 1.5x pot and just put villain in a horrible spot where he has to over-fold. Obv you will do the same with some flushes too.) And you can again bet big OTR.  But most opponents just aren't making such plays, so FPS (or balanced play) is largely over-rated. OK, he might get a call from you here because his line looks FOS - but he could very easily get a fold from you and lost a ton of value. Whereas had he bet flop with his NFD you'd definitely give him at least 3-streets of value when a flush hits. In other words, the hands he's trying to get hero'd by now would have got him plenty of value had he not slow-played.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Don't think villain is 3-betting any mid pp here. Boats are probably just 75s, 35s and maybe the one 10's combo.

I do recall a hand a few weeks ago where as the pfa this villain c/c flop, turn and c/jam river oop with a NFD on the flop. River completed the flush and I think he stacked 2pr. Remember another a couple of times being surprised at some of the hands this villain has got to showdown with. I wouldn't say this guy plays unorthodox just likes to play strong hands differently sometimes to keep people guessing.

Agree with your point about losing value potentially against my hand here. Against my overall range though if he perceives that I will overbluff flush runouts etc than he will gain a ton of value in those spots where I may just c/f flop otherwise. I think from a strategy point of view it is important to be able to have some flushes here as the villain after checking the flop otherwise you can get run over by decent players.

On point that may be of use is that I think villain views me as one of the better 100nl regs. I assume he would expect me some % of the time bet turn/river here to try and take him off it with air.