Bluffing gone bad

shakinaces

Oppo does like to take position on me and 3-bets me too frequently to be doing it with absolute premiums only.

I'm not sure 'call' was my best weapon against this, nor sure that KJs is the best hand to take a bit of a stand with.

Upon a bit of weakness on the flop, plus having picked up a gutshot, I thought it'd be rude not to take a stab. I don't think he'd have checked back KK/AA/KQ/AQ and think TT/JJ/AK/AJ/AT type hands may be my 3-bet calling range credit to be ahead on the turn.

I then miss my 4-outer... should I be giving up now the board pairs? 

I still feel I can be repping KQ/AQ/88/99/98s here and size a bet based on playing for value... but thoughts on sizing if it is a fair river to bluff at?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
BAGGPUSS	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£17.70
ImOrthodox	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£8.75
	Your hole cards	K J
skintman	Fold
shakinaces	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£15.78
jimmaw	Fold
xxxx	Raise		£1.00	£1.45	£17.38
BAGGPUSS	Fold
ImOrthodox	Fold
shakinaces	Call		£0.70	£2.15	£15.08
Flop
		4 Q 8
shakinaces	Check
xxxx	Check
Turn
		9
shakinaces	Bet		£1.20	£3.35	£13.88
xxxx	Call		£1.20	£4.55	£16.18
River
		8
shakinaces	Bet		£2.80	£7.35	£11.08

Lambert180

I don't mind betting turn, and a lot of rivers but on this river I'd just give up.

The hands he checks back flop with are either gonna be weak made hands or complete air giving up/hoping to hit something imo. The fact he's called turn means he's unlikely to have air anymore, unless it was like A9 (which isn't air anymore anyway),

I don't think he has any draws for us to get him off, most people who 3bet here are gonna continue the pressure with stuff like JT/J9/FDs etc (not that JT bricked), so his most likely holdings imo will be 8x, weak Qx, maybe JJ/TT, maybe the odd 9x hand, and now that the river has paired the 8, I don't think you're gonna get any of those hands to fold.

BorinLoner

I'm interested in your logic for thinking KJs may be a bad hand to flat his 3-bet OOP with, if he's 3-betting wide. To me it looks like the ideal sort of hand, particularly if he barrels light too. It's a good one-pair making hand that we can just play passively for value against that sort of opponent.

Anyway, I'd agree with Lambert's ranges apart from the addition of QQ and possibly lower sets if you think he 3-bets those against you. When you perceive weakness in his check-back on the flop, I'd perceive showdown value the majority of the time. It's a pretty dry flop for him not to c-bet his real weak hands. 

Is he really 3-betting wide pre-flop, then playing fit or fold post-flop?

F_Ivanovic

Bet turn bigger and as Lambert says river we should probably give up.

shakinaces

In Response to Re: Bluffing gone bad:

I'm interested in your logic for thinking KJs may be a bad hand to flat his 3-bet OOP with, if he's 3-betting wide. To me it looks like the ideal sort of hand, particularly if he barrels light too. It's a good one-pair making hand that we can just play passively for value against that sort of opponent. Anyway, I'd agree with Lambert's ranges apart from the addition of QQ and possibly lower sets if you think he 3-bets those against you. When you perceive weakness in his check-back on the flop, I'd perceive showdown value the majority of the time. It's a pretty dry flop for him not to c-bet his real weak hands.  Is he really 3-betting wide pre-flop, then playing fit or fold post-flop?
Posted by BorinLoner

I don't necessarily, but I often receive advice about not calling 3 bets with hands that can easily be dominated and get me in trouble (ie in this spot he could easily be 3 betting AK/AJ/KQ) so was caveating my initial post ahead of a ton of 'fold pre' responses.

In Response to Re: Bluffing gone bad:

I don't mind betting turn, and a lot of rivers but on this river I'd just give up. The hands he checks back flop with are either gonna be weak made hands or complete air giving up/hoping to hit something imo. The fact he's called turn means he's unlikely to have air anymore, unless it was like A9 (which isn't air anymore anyway), I don't think he has any draws for us to get him off, most people who 3bet here are gonna continue the pressure with stuff like JT/J9/FDs etc (not that JT bricked), so his most likely holdings imo will be 8x, weak Qx, maybe JJ/TT, maybe the odd 9x hand, and now that the river has paired the 8, I don't think you're gonna get any of those hands to fold.
Posted by Lambert180

Re: the two bits in red, this is my thinking on the turn, he has a weak made hand that is pot-controlling. Not entirely sure he'd bet his air here (if he is super-light) as I think my range would be perceived to have caught this flop reasonably well?

I bet turn with expectation I'd likely have to bet river as well, assuming that he likely has lots of 2nd pair hands (TT/JJ/9T/87/A9s/A8s maybe even K9s) and may not necessarily get tied to these for a big pot.

I was a bit torn on the river as I sort of knew this logic would mean he'd improved/board got less scary, but at the same time would be too weak to just give up.

So I did bet the river and lost more money.  But thanks to the three of you for the posts explaining why I mis-played, hopefully good knowledge for future spots.

FWIW oppo had T8s

KingBowl

IMO you played your hand fine until the river. Pre seems good vs an aggro 3 bettor and after flop goes x/x his range in my eyes is a lot of 8x, maybe 99-JJ and some other low pps, and Ax i.e weak SD. I think we rarely have the best hand. Therefore betting turn with the intention of barreling a lot of rivers seems like a good line, however when the board pairs we have to give up,  he will be heroing too light. As mentioned turn bet could be a little larger for added FE and  so we can put more pressure on with a larger river bluff

AMYBR

Hand just seems like total standard myeh.  Dont love peeling pre but dont hate it.  If we are willing to fire our equity post I dont even hate 4betting pre.  

But as played not a lot wrong with opening turn.  Think i fire bigger.  

I dont even hate playing out of flow when we flop such little equity.  If we have the correct image we will win more/lose less by turning our hand into a merge.  Only a pretty tight range can raise us on flop.

Long and short of it is we have to keep some spew in our game and be content to a) build our own pot and be like myeh when it fails b) know that this line will get us paid in a) bigger pot later b) multiple pots later.

People get bogged down in the minutae of vacuum hands rather than the dynamics and levels of a session.

Not a lot wrong imo.  Is is optimal?  Probably not.  Does it really matter?  No.