Correct Play

RUBLUFFINN

I have 22 in BB and a min raise gets from UTG gets folded round to me i call to see if i can catch my 2 on flop with the intention of avoiding any action if i miss my 2. Flop comes down Q82 with two hearts there. He bet half pot and i raised an extra full pot to which he flatted. The flop came and was a 6 but not a heart so now in my head im thinking i must be ahead. This time i lead the betting to over the size of the pot... this is where my question comes in i now know my oppenent was playing AJ both hearts now after my big raise on flop then this huge bet in relativity to the pot surely a fold would be the right action? For me personally i would have thought that you would be losing too much in the long run if you called the turn bet in the long run as at that point your not beating a lot thats going to be betting into you? 

Of course he called in this situation and of course it was another heart on the river the K to be exact... he bet big and i called him off as i had seen it the way he played the rest of the pot he was more likely to have two pair then to have a flush. What are peoples thoughts on this im not trying to say he played it wrong as i dont play everyday so it could be my novice play but surely long run profit is a fold on the turn by my opponent there? Am interested to know as i find myself in his shoes quite often and would normally fold had the betting gone the way it went... 

shakinaces

In answer to the main question, yes the oppo should probably fold here as he doesn't have the direct odds to call with a flush draw... probably also doesn't have the implied odds either, depending on how deep stacked you both were.

Wouldn't beat yourself up about losing on this occasion, we want flush draws to be calling all day long when we have a set and there is only one more card to come.  If someone pays you off in this spot then make a note and make big bets on every street... obv sucks the time he hits, but the other times (more than 4/5) you've made max value out of him.

There may be some tweaks that could be made to your bets... not sure a bet bigger than pot will get called by many oppos in that spot (and we have a super-strong hand, so want lots of calls) - or even tempt oppo into semi-bluffing with his flush draw.  Although against oppos like this, well played, do the same again and make maximum value out of them!!

F_Ivanovic

Villain definitely wasn't getting direct odds to make the call. You don't say exactly how much you bet - was it only just over a pot sized bet or was it much larger? His hand has roughly 18.5% equity against a range of AQ, Q7, 22 and 66 and assuming you bet only just over pot he needs 35% equity to correctly call which he doesn't have.

However in poker there is also implied odds to factor in. Your donk lead for over the pot OTT suggests you have a very big hand and so in this situation villain can be confident that he has a chance that he might be payed off enough of the time if he hits his flush - particularly if he has a read that suggests you might find it difficult to lay down a strong hand in this spot.

Because of this, it's hard to say if villain made an incorrect call or not.

Your hand reading in this hand could do with improvement though and might help you make better river decisions in the future - KQ is the only 2 pair hand villain can have but a good villain might be able to get away from that hand OTT after you lead such a huge sizing. They also might not bet the river so large (might opt for smaller value bet) given that the flush got there - in fact, it might not be best to bet river at all because your hand OTT looks like a bluff (typically a FD) or a strong hand 2 pair or set. There aren;t many 2 pairs likely so it's very possible you can have a set.

But even assuming villain always bets KQ and flushes - he will more flushes in his range OTR but not a lot of bluffs (at all? unless he is capable of turning a made hand like QJ or even AQ into a bluff). It's hard to get away from a set though and I understand the call but by making folds like this when it looks so much like villain has a flush then we end up increasing villains turn mistake by calling to hit a flush.