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Poker Maths - Headscratchers of the world unite

BenchmarkBenchmark Member Posts: 297
edited July 2015 in Poker Chat
Okay, so there's 1000 chips in the pot. I need to bet 200 to call.

I have 8 outs on the river.

Pot odds 5/1 (200 chips to win 1000)

Card odds 8/46 = 5.75/1

Pot odds need to be greater than card odds to call. It's a fold.

However.... If the same cards are dealt 46 times, I should hit my outs 8 times and miss them 38 times, due to the laws of probability.

8 x 1000 (when I win) = 8,000 chips (hurrah!!!)

38 x 200 (when I lose) = 7,600 chips (boo!!!)

Soooo.. how come I win more than I lose , although the odds indicate it should be the other way around ???



Hopefully, I've made a simple mistake.
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Comments

  • FeelGroggyFeelGroggy Member Posts: 843
    edited July 2015
    When you call the 200 the pot becomes 1200 chips which you need to win 1 out of 6 times to breakeven on your call ☺ Also I imagine you have implied odds and can get extra chips when you do hit. 
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited July 2015
    Eight outs on the river isn't 5.75:1.

    You're getting mixed up by 8/46 (eight divided by 46) and equating that to 8:46 (8 to 46). The second, 8:46, suggests there are 54 cards still in the deck. You need to be using 38:8, which is 4.75:1. There are 8 good cards and 38 bad ones.


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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited July 2015
    In Response to Re: Poker Maths - Headscratchers of the world unite:
    When you call the 200 the pot becomes 1200 chips which you need to win 1 out of 6 times to breakeven on your call ☺ Also I imagine you have implied odds and can get extra chips when you do hit. 
    Posted by FeelGroggy
    This would be the way to calculate odds as a percentage or decimal. You'd say 200/1200 = 0.167 or 16.7%.

    Using the old school odds, it's still 1000:200 or 5:1. 

    Mostly people use a / to illustrate pot odds but they also use a / to indicate division... which is very confusing of them.
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  • FeelGroggyFeelGroggy Member Posts: 843
    edited July 2015
    Yeah you seem to be getting confused with ratio and fractions. If there is 1 boy and 3 girls then 1/4 of the people are boys. The ratio of boys to girls is 1:3. A ratio of 1:4 would mean there's 1 boy and 4 girls. They aren't the same. I know it's a lame example but all I could come up with on the spot
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  • BenchmarkBenchmark Member Posts: 297
    edited July 2015
    Ahh... that now makes sense. I was confusing 1/5 meaning the same as 1:5.

    TVM.
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  • BenchmarkBenchmark Member Posts: 297
    edited July 2015
    Okay, here's the rewrite..


    There's 1000 chips in the pot. I need to bet 200 to call.

    I have 8 outs on the river.

    Pot odds 5/1 (200 chips to win 1000)

    Card odds 38/8 = 4.75/1

    Pot odds need to be greater than card odds to call. It's a call.

    To prove.... If the same cards are dealt 46 times, I should hit my outs 8 times and miss them 38 times, due to the laws of probability.

    8 x 1000 (when I win) = 8,000 chips (hurrah!!!)

    38 x 200 (when I lose) = 7,600 chips (boo!!!)

    I actually folded this hand earlier today. I guess it was a call after all. The 8 DID hit the river AND it was a correct call, even if it hadn't.

    Not sure I could do the math again in 30 seconds...
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