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Hand from the 25/25 this weekend in Liverpool

Sky_DanSky_Dan Member Posts: 589
edited July 2015 in The Poker Clinic
A friend of mine played the 25/25 this weekend and bust out on Day 2 in the following hand. She has been beating herself a bit over it, would be interested to hear your thoughts.

I have about 35BB in CO - raise 2BB with QQ.

Fairly active BB has me covered and 3 bets to about 5BB - I call.

Flop comes Js 5x 2x. He bets about 6BB (half pot). I call.

Turn Ts. 25BB now in pot and he checks. I have about 25BB left. Gut was to check but head says he has AK and I need to protect so I shove.

He calls after some deliberation with Kings and GG me.
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Comments

  • mumsiemumsie Member Posts: 7,991
    edited July 2015
    I think the hand plays itself pretty much the way it went.There being more AK combos than AA KK
    AsKs plays it that way too.
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,410
    edited July 2015
    So 22BB's in pot and 25BB remaining? If you think villain has AK then he is only going to hit the river about 20% of the time - we don't need to go all in to protect our hand. A smaller bet of 8BB's should be enough to do the trick. And given his turn check showing weakness - if we had a stronger hand like a set or 2 pair I would be betting the same amount. 

    Of course there's a risk we give him a fairly cheap river if he holds a flush draw but most people will either bet turn again or if they decide to check they could c/shove over our smaller bet thinking they have some fold equity.

    Plus, with a smaller bet we give oppertunities for worse hands to call (maybe he 3b AT, has hit a pair and as such is slowing down - a smaller bet gets value from this, where as a shove might get AT to fold)

    Overall when you get QQ against KK and this short stacked it's very tough to get away from it and especially when someone decides to go into slow play mode after initial aggression. If Hero is a tight player, then despite BB being active I would be wary of his 3b being a very strong range but even so it's tough to fold pre and to one flop bet. There may be an argument in that case to check turn, but I still think betting probably has the higher ev - just like I said, doesn't necessarily have to be AI.

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  • Sky_DanSky_Dan Member Posts: 589
    edited July 2015
    Good analysis guys. My feeling was she should have got it all-in pre but that wouldn't have worked out much better!

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