In Response to Re: My experience with variance : If you toss a coin 20,00 times you need to re-evaluate what you are doing with your life. Posted by jordz16
Sigh, that was gonna be the highlight of my weekend as well.
I don't know if this is relevant but, I did a little easy maths on the DYM example. (similar to husngs expectations?)
If a player has a 55% win rate in dym's then after rake he's breaking even. Eg: 100 games at $11 = $1100. 55 X $20 = $1100.
IMO 55% in these is a solid rate and as some of the guys have already said, some of the best dym players on the site have a win rate not too much over this (67%ish). Going back to the husngs Id say breaking even over a large sample size is very possible unless you're an absolute hu god.
Bear in mind also that (IMO) most of the players that play husng's are usually pretty good players and may have an edge on you and add to that the luck factor is increased in hu matches. In dyms you generally don't need to win a lot of hands v (again imo not as good players) who make standard mistakes.
In Response to Re: My experience with variance : If you toss a coin 20,00 times you need to re-evaluate what you are doing with your life. Posted by jordz16
Didn't help my experience with variance when the last game in bad run happened to disconnect me too! That's just variance taking the P! I know it can be psychological, seeing and remembering bad/good streaks rather than when it was more mixed. Perhaps it doesn't help when those miracle runners seem to come straight on the back of the gutshot that just beat you, as variance often seems to link hands with ridiculous cards that appear at the right/wrong time. I guess what itsover said above is part of the answer, that specific aspects will always stay in memory much more than others. Scary for OP though, you mentioned 'coming out' of a downswing - that actually makes no sense, if we really believe that past has no relation to your future luck. You could just be hitting an even bigger downswing right now. Posted by swanstu
I could be ready to go on another downswing your quite correct but one thing is for sure in another 10,000 husngs I will have earned more than I am on now.... because variance is short term but roi is the truth.
and you can safely assume you are coming out of a downswing / break even patch when your graph stops going down or level and starts moving up again
In Response to Re: My experience with variance : I could be ready to go on another downswing your quite correct but one thing is for sure in another 10,000 husngs I will have earned more than I am on now.... because variance is short term but roi is the truth. and you can safely assume you are coming out of a downswing / break even patch when your graph stops going down or level and starts moving up again Posted by Itsover4u
Sadly this is incorrect.
I read/listened to an audio book called 'The Poker Mindset' (I think), similar kinda idea as the Mental Game of Poker, and they discuss various mental game issues. One thing is that downswings are totally random and have no pattern at all. Loads of times people make statements like the bolded bit but where luck is involved the past does not inform the future...
The odds of you losing 10 HU SnGs in a row are X
If that happens, u log out, come back the next day and plan to play 10 more HU SnGs (I know you'd play more lol), the odds of losing those 10 in a row are still X too.
It's like winning the lottery is X chance. If you won the lottery the week before, your odds of winning it next week are no smaller or bigger than any other week.
So sadly you can have a brutal 10 big losing sessions in a row, win in the 11th session, then get hammered in the following 10 sessions again. Pretty much anything can happen and that can deffo be a grim thought.
I understand that completely but if you are a winning player eventually things will swing your way.... its just a grin and bare it situation Posted by Itsover4u
Who knows who's a 'winning player' and who's just got some good luck with variance so much around
In theory any player could lose every hand for the rest of their career. Not likely, but not impossible. So, becoming a winning or losing player when you should be the opposite is actually quite likely comparing to that.
In Response to Re: My experience with variance : Who knows who's a 'winning player' and who's just got some good luck with variance so much around In theory any player could lose every hand for the rest of their career. Not likely, but not impossible. So, becoming a winning or losing player when you should be the opposite is actually quite likely comparing to that. Posted by swanstu
no you misunderstand variance completely..... the chances of a player losing with say a 10% roi in HUSNGs over 100k games would be just about impossible. Variance is something that can efffect winning players but will not stop them from winning long term.
It is not something that can go on for a whole career (unless you are a losing player) as it will always even out the same as the coin flip analogy.
In Response to Re: My experience with variance : Who knows who's a 'winning player' and who's just got some good luck with variance so much around In theory any player could lose every hand for the rest of their career. Not likely, but not impossible. So, becoming a winning or losing player when you should be the opposite is actually quite likely comparing to that. Posted by swanstu
In theory yes but in reality no.
Poker is a game of short term luck and long term skill. If a player is good and puts in the effort to improve, whilst also putting in the volume, they will make money long term. And its the reverse for poor players, they might have the odd result here and there (short term luck) but generally they will lose money. Some of the best players can have a rough patch, just like some of the worst players can put a couple of scores together, but the status quo will soon be reverted to.
It's clear you have a bee in your bonnet about something....
In Response to Re: My experience with variance : In theory yes but in reality no. Poker is a game of short term luck and long term skill. If a player is good and puts in the effort to improve, whilst also putting in the volume, they will make money long term. And its the reverse for poor players, they might have the odd result here and there (short term luck) but generally they will lose money. Some of the best players can have a rough patch, just like some of the worst players can put a couple of scores together, but the status quo will soon be reverted to. It's clear you have a bee in your bonnet about something.... Posted by hhyftrftdr
No bee, just pointing out the extremes of variance possible.
Saying it can't happen is like saying you don't face quads v your fh in consecutive hands - not likely, but possible.
Comments
If a player has a 55% win rate in dym's then after rake he's breaking even.
Eg: 100 games at $11 = $1100. 55 X $20 = $1100.
IMO 55% in these is a solid rate and as some of the guys have already said, some of the best dym players on the site have a win rate not too much over this (67%ish). Going back to the husngs Id say breaking even over a large sample size is very possible unless you're an absolute hu god.
Bear in mind also that (IMO) most of the players that play husng's are usually pretty good players and may have an edge on you and add to that the luck factor is increased in hu matches. In dyms you generally don't need to win a lot of hands v (again imo not as good players) who make standard mistakes.
Poker is a game of short term luck and long term skill. If a player is good and puts in the effort to improve, whilst also putting in the volume, they will make money long term. And its the reverse for poor players, they might have the odd result here and there (short term luck) but generally they will lose money. Some of the best players can have a rough patch, just like some of the worst players can put a couple of scores together, but the status quo will soon be reverted to.
It's clear you have a bee in your bonnet about something....