22BH - Early Stages TPGK on Wet Runout

Lambert180

Decided I'm gonna start posting a few MTT HHs up here because it's always dead in the clinic and it helps me to keep my eye on the ball and make sure I aint getting lazy/playing bad. So here's the first one...

Didn't know villain prior to this game and it's very early stages so pretty readless but a fair amount of assumptions can be made (imo) just from the limp/call pre.

All happy with flop/turn?

WWYD on river? bet/fold small? check/fold or check/call? ... and more importantly, why?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Lambert180	Small blind		15.00	15.00	2905.00
MaryPopins	Big blind		30.00	45.00	3140.00
	Your hole cards	Q A
X	Call		30.00	75.00	2860.00
JMH7	Fold
omm	Fold
BrayCorp83	Fold
Lambert180	Raise		105.00	180.00	2800.00
MaryPopins	Fold
X	Call		90.00	270.00	2770.00
Flop
		6 9 Q
Lambert180	Bet		160.00	430.00	2640.00
X	Call		160.00	590.00	2610.00
Turn
		2
Lambert180	Bet		410.00	1000.00	2230.00
X	Call		410.00	1410.00	2200.00
River
		J

FeelGroggy

Really tough one here.

I might have bet smaller on the turn maybe 320 and fold to a raise and if he calls maybe bet fold 540 into 1200. tough one to play OOP. Think if we bet smalller he has more JT KJ type hands with a club that might call a river bet.

As played here i check fold river to a decent sized bet. Think if he bets hard for him to have any bluffs and wouldnt expect him to value bet with worse queens. 

Lambert180

Yeah tbh I've totally disregarded c/c as an option, if he bets river it's just always a better hand than us imo, I just put it in the OP so I wasn't like leading people into saying what I think we should do.

mrleemr1

C/fold river.
He can have 9x with club draw etc.

Given his limp pre he may over value a Qx hand but given run out kq is only hand and he is likely to check back a lot with it too.

If he was to have a hand like 78 and decided to bluff then w/e but that's it, everything else checks back or has us beat.

DOHHHHHHH

Turn sizing looks big given it's a pretty thin value bet now. 

x/f riverrr. 

TeddyBloat

Bet fold.

Small sizing.

Lambert180

Well I'm glad at least one person agreed with what I did/thought, although I'm not saying that I'm right.

I did go for a vbet of about 600 ish and did have to fold to a jam.

Still dunno if it's a bit too thin.

TeddyBloat

The  point is that it is thin

I'd go smaller than 600.

400 - 500 tops.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: 22BH - Early Stages TPGK on Wet Runout:

The  point is that it is thin I'd go smaller than 600. 400 - 500 tops.
Posted by TeddyBloat

Yeah it's definitely thin, I just didn't know if it was too thin... like I'm right in thinking that to vbet we have to be able to beat 50%+ of the hands he calls with?

Dunno if he has enough combos of worse hands to call compared to better hands.

Agree maybe a bit smaller is better and might get called slightly lighter.

TeddyBloat

yeah you need more than 50% equity v his calling range for it to be a value bet.

and betting smaller does increase the amount of 9x, Jx, weak Qx TT 88 etc that calls.

but when we are considering folding top pair block-betting small achieves other things:

villains air always has equity against us in this situation [as we fold when it bets] and by betting into it we prevent it from capturing any % of the pot -  we reduce the capture factor of all his missed draws

if villain ever value bets thin with worse queens then we do significantly better by getting them to call a small bet than when he makes us fold by betting bigger.

if villain ever turns weak made hands into a bluff ie 6x then we do significantly better by offering him the chance to spew call v a small bet than by c/folding.

we essentially realise our equity much more efficiently and get some thin value.

its a very exploitative and unbalanced strat, but you can do some really cool things with it v thinking regs also.

Lambert180

Cheers Teddy, that's a great response, really has opened my eyes to some other things to take into consideration.

Love you posts.

TeddyBloat

Cheers man. 

Gto uses block betting a lot btw.

Even pure bluff catchers that can only chop when called will block bet under certain circumstances.

But be careful that you aren't losing value, esp with tptk that can be called by worse or beat some value bets.

Routinely betting small with your best kickers won't be good on all run outs.

But here it looks good. 

AMYBR

Hey lambert 

Long time no jibber jabber, hope your well.

I bet maybe smaller pre and on flop.

sure you know why, he isnt folding anything equitable, yet we maintain our flexibility and myeh factor through streets.

If we are in position we cn opt for lines we are happier with, but oop, why give ourselves the pain?

As he isnt going to fold anything equtitable we basically have a weak 1pr bluff catcher, think we should play it as such, rather than putting ourselves ina  spot we we stop our oppo repping or where we cant c/c with the best hand.  We are only b/c'ing hero ville otherwsise.

Yes sometimes we miss value, but oop, we are kinda ice skating up hill in any case