Is this just too tight of a fold?

shakinaces

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
showoff1	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£9.05
xxxxxx	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£20.45
	Your hole cards	7 7
co	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£14.93
shakinaces	Call		£0.30	£0.75	£44.78
showoff1	Fold
xxxxxx	Call		£0.20	£0.95	£20.25
Flop
		7 A 10
xxxxxxx	Check
co	Check
shakinaces	Bet		£0.60	£1.55	£44.18
xxxxxxx	Call		£0.60	£2.15	£19.65
co	Fold
Turn
		Q
xxxxxxx	Check
shakinaces	Bet		£1.50	£3.65	£42.68
xxxxxxx	Raise		£4.00	£7.65	£15.65
shakinaces	Call		£2.50	£10.15	£40.18
River
		9
xxxxxxx	Bet		£10.15	£20.30	£5.50
shakinaces	Fold
xxxxxxx	Muck
xxxxxxx	Win		£9.38		£14.88
xxxxxxx	Return		£10.15	£0.77	£25.03

Need to stop getting into big pots with unknowns

Never seen oppo before, had only joined the table a couple of hands ago.

Readless is this just far too tight of a fold given their range would be only KJ or TT?? (AA and QQ seems unlikely as no 3 bet and 99 and J8 seems unlikely given turn action)

grantorino

not folding readless, although KJ looks likely here. Think an unknown at 10NL can show up with AT,QT,AQ enough 

mrleemr1

Too many 2p draw combos, def can't fold here Imo, kj is part his range but could def over value 2p hands missed draws and some spews 

liamboi11

I think you have played hand spot on till river bud defo not folding like others above have stated too many hands you beat ax hands,2prs,pair+flush/straight draws and crazy bluffs unlikely but depends on opponent.

Imo hands they prob have that beat you is kj/10s and if have that hand so be it

Lambert180

I actually don't think it's the worst fold in the world.

Your average villians at 10NL are gonna be vv straight forward and generally vv passive unless they've got the nuts or vv close.

Imo if they're aggro enough to be taking this line with missed FDs then they'd probably c/r the flop with them a lot, especially seen as a lot of the FDs on this flop have straight draws too.

More chance they raise AT on the flop than turn, same for A7, QT probably flats turn more often than not and doesn't bomb river, and I even doubt most villians would pot river with AQ

All that's imo ofc and it's 10nl specific.

Talking about something similar recently, a mate said to me....

X

When ppl dnt raise for value wide enough and dnt bluff, when they go all in what's left

The nuts========That about sums up 10nl ^^^

mrleemr1

Hmm, let's put him on range of hands then. Now given he is in the bb we can discount some of his value range.

TTx3, j8s, kjx16, AQx9

Does AT really raise turn pot river? I don't think so, I don't think any other missed draws take this line, I don't think any other 2p takes this line, like why raise turn, then when all major draws miss pot. He has had to type in the amount, not just clicked sky's appalling mathematical pot button. I tend to find this is usually for value, I could be wrong.

We beat 9 hands 

We lose to 20 hands 

We need to be correct 33% the time, the range above is 31% the time, and that's very narrow range for this board, vs unknown, so using the above this is close and would indeed be a fold. But if we throw in at or anything else the odds start go become more appealing, vs unknown you just can't fold here, but I agree it's not terrible. 

If AT is part of his range here then we beat 18 hands, we're correct here 47% the time, a clear cut call, all this assumes he has no bluff/spew range. For all we know this player just bust out a tournament and is on tilt. Just can't fold imo

I may have worked this out wrong btw and could be off on my ranges it's still early in morning and I'm yet to wake up properly ha

shakinaces

Thanks for the feedback.

I suppose my thinking was similar to Lambert's re: population tendency at this level - I don't expect to be seeing bluffs of this size at these stakes so have to give credit that his hand is either AQ/AT (happy days) or KJ/TT (not so happy days).  Am assuming QQ/AA and 3 bet pre (although accept there are plenty of players at this level which would call QQ from blinds) and J8 would take more passive line on turn (population read) so ruling those out.

If my maths is right that is 18 combos that I beat and 19 combos that beat me?  I suppose if you count the money already in the pot I suppose that does makes the river a call. 

Is then only a Q of whether I ever fold the turn. Which I don't. Because I'm a fish. And I have a set.

yuranASSet

Bet flop bigger on such a board v 2. 

Bet turn bigger since we have fish, then shove reraise. The only reason to flat turn would be on the hope the the river bricks. Which it did. 

Sorry, I don't see the drama!

mrleemr1

In Response to Re: Is this just too tight of a fold?:

Thanks for the feedback. I suppose my thinking was similar to Lambert's re: population tendency at this level - I don't expect to be seeing bluffs of this size at these stakes so have to give credit that his hand is either AQ/AT (happy days) or KJ/TT (not so happy days).  Am assuming QQ/AA and 3 bet pre (although accept there are plenty of players at this level which would call QQ from blinds) and J8 would take more passive line on turn (population read) so ruling those out. If my maths is right that is 18 combos that I beat and 19 combos that beat me?  I suppose if you count the money already in the pot I suppose that does makes the river a call.  Is then only a Q of whether I ever fold the turn. Which I don't. Because I'm a fish. And I have a set.
Posted by shakinaces

I think your off on your combos there. I mean if he does have 37 combos and we beat just under half then its very easy call

F_Ivanovic

I'm with Lambert. And I'm a huge calling station.