In Response to Re: Hi guys, what is "variance"? : Reminding sweeney86,that you can avoid negative variance alltogether,by folding your premium AA KK etc pre flop in certain circumstances,something sadly for me i never do. Posted by chilling
In Response to Re: Hi guys, what is "variance"? : It was only a bit of fun,but if you seriously think im a troll then you should carry on with your knitting. Posted by chilling
If you had read my post properly you will have noticed that I only called you 1/3 troll.
once you start to understand expectation and what you can and cant control it can not only improve your poker playing skill set, but also how much you enjoy the game. i'd argue that understanding variance can also filter in your 'real-life' away from the tables.
to expand upon the excellent posts by tikay:
why do poker players use the word variance as opposed to luck?
well i'd argue it is a much more dispassionate word. luck is emotive and is also a quality that we can assign to others and ourselves. we may view some people as lucky, and ourselves as unlucky. doing so is emotive. if we feel we are unlucky we can curse our luck or bemoan the jamminess of others.
however saying 'i've just been on the wrong side of variance' implies that you dont see yourself as being inherently more or less lucky than someone else, that you understand the distances from expectation in poker and also that the spell is only temporary [compared to if you see yourself as being inherently unlucky]
it also avoids percieved injustice where you dont win your 'fair' share or that villain didnt 'deserve' to win that pot. shedding these emotions will improve your enjoyment of the game. half the posters in this sub-forum seem to loath the game and themsleves [i am so unlucky, the game is so rigged, why do i bother]
no, you've experienced variance. we all experience variance. its inerent in the game, and indeed life.
-----
just how much variance there is in poker is often underestimated.
most understand getting AA cracked is variance.
a good number understand that AA holding up is actually positive variance [as tikay explained].
but getting dealt AA is positive variance
getting AA when villain has KK is positive variance.
getting AA cracked is variance, but getting it cracked on the pay bubble of a big MTT is variance, doing so v the chip leader is variance.
when the table breaks in an MTT getting sandwiched between tommyD and Divsdreams is variance.
alll these things can compound on top of another and show up in your expected winrate. its not as simple as all-in luck.
Excellent post as always from Teddy, and he touches on variance related stuff away from your cards. Table draws, table balancing, getting disconnected (online), miss-deals (live), all stuff you might not consider part of the variance family but they are.
i've gained a much bigger understanding from grinding spins on the big site.
the variance there can compound in unusual ways.
most obviously in prize pool distribution:
i can spin a hige prize pool win and i'll be over EV for life.
but what if i run bad in prize pool distribution?
what if i run good in prize pool distribution but run horribly in all-in EV in those big prize pools?
the HU portion of spins is by far the most profitable - its where most of your cEV per tournament comes from. so any run bad - be card distribution, coolers, all-in luck - that effects how often you get HU will expoentially effect your overall chip EV.
you are randomly assigned positions. over my last 1k games i have 20 more buttons than SB's 3 handed. given my bb/100 in the button towers over my bb/100 in the SB that will show up in my expected winrate, howver smalll that effect is.
you are randomly assigned tables. getting a table with two sick HUSNG players is going to kill my winrate esp compared to getting 2 new depositting players. getting the sickos in a big prize pool is going to hurt even more - but i might just run good.
so all these things can compound on top of each other, or cancel each other out.
there will be analogous effects for all game types.
understanding them will help you ride out the variance, good or bad.
why do poker players use the word variance as opposed to luck? Posted by TeddyBloat
Indeed - hence my first reply. Keep it simple - everyone understands the concept of luck. Call it "variance" and it sounds all technical or poker-geekish
luck has a colloquial meaning. its a property of something or someone [lucky hand, unlucky seat etc]
variance is the range of outcomes and distances from expectation. tied into the word is expectation. and so using the term instead of 'luck' will improve mindset and even results and i believe that it is true of real life events also.
should a new player be in some way vetted about their knowledge of variance before joining any site. Pretty similar to the stock markets in some aspects. Posted by chilling
It's in no way neccessary. People play for fun, their transition to online poker would general be from playing with friends at home or having watched a bit on t.v. A simple understanding of a bad beat is enough to suffice in the short term when Sky and other sites offer, via articles and other mediums, basic and more important fundamentals like BRM, Hand Ranges, Probability & Odds, Equity, Position etc from which they can build their game.
The problem is that people skip the fundamentals and then take no responsibility. But the OP done the right thing and came into the forum and asked the questions and got some good replies. I just hope he gets to see them.
It would be the same if I paid £200 and entered a Jiu-Jitsu tournament only to have my arm snapped because I didn't know I was meant to tap when getting armbarred which is a fundamental. Or paid into a chess tournament only to get eliminated on the first move because it was illegal.
Doesn't matter how it's tarted up, it's still just luck. Posted by NoseyBonk
Which Luck is that ........... Good Luck .....or ....... Bad Luck . ? Good Play .... or ...... Bad Play ...... The little Fairy waves her magic wand and you never lose a hand / game, would you complain of variance ........ no , never had any.! So the OP is asking in this thread ......... What is Variance ? We don't know if he or she suffers from it or is just asking the question. ? Having cards dealt you which your brain say's should be winners then get beat you think its rigged. Winning players will boast of good luck but complain of bad so in my eye's variance is bad luck/ bad play. ! How to deal with it is another matter and will vary from player to player....... new players take it to heart its conspiracy the site is rigged to many action hands to be legitimate. We all had these thoughts at some stage even me ........ but seasoned players old dogs know better and take the bad beats in their stride. If OP has doubts then rail some of the top players and you will see they all get them not just you.
Comments
Well not as much fun.!
once you start to understand expectation and what you can and cant control it can not only improve your poker playing skill set, but also how much you enjoy the game. i'd argue that understanding variance can also filter in your 'real-life' away from the tables.
to expand upon the excellent posts by tikay:
why do poker players use the word variance as opposed to luck?
well i'd argue it is a much more dispassionate word. luck is emotive and is also a quality that we can assign to others and ourselves. we may view some people as lucky, and ourselves as unlucky. doing so is emotive. if we feel we are unlucky we can curse our luck or bemoan the jamminess of others.
however saying 'i've just been on the wrong side of variance' implies that you dont see yourself as being inherently more or less lucky than someone else, that you understand the distances from expectation in poker and also that the spell is only temporary [compared to if you see yourself as being inherently unlucky]
it also avoids percieved injustice where you dont win your 'fair' share or that villain didnt 'deserve' to win that pot. shedding these emotions will improve your enjoyment of the game. half the posters in this sub-forum seem to loath the game and themsleves [i am so unlucky, the game is so rigged, why do i bother]
no, you've experienced variance. we all experience variance. its inerent in the game, and indeed life.
-----
just how much variance there is in poker is often underestimated.
alll these things can compound on top of another and show up in your expected winrate. its not as simple as all-in luck.In a separate MTT, I beat AA and QQ with QT (ahem), then eventually bust when AA couldn't hold vs 55 on a 3 6 7 flop.
Swings and swongs.
the variance there can compound in unusual ways.
most obviously in prize pool distribution:
i can spin a hige prize pool win and i'll be over EV for life.
but what if i run bad in prize pool distribution?
what if i run good in prize pool distribution but run horribly in all-in EV in those big prize pools?
the HU portion of spins is by far the most profitable - its where most of your cEV per tournament comes from. so any run bad - be card distribution, coolers, all-in luck - that effects how often you get HU will expoentially effect your overall chip EV.
you are randomly assigned positions. over my last 1k games i have 20 more buttons than SB's 3 handed. given my bb/100 in the button towers over my bb/100 in the SB that will show up in my expected winrate, howver smalll that effect is.
you are randomly assigned tables. getting a table with two sick HUSNG players is going to kill my winrate esp compared to getting 2 new depositting players. getting the sickos in a big prize pool is going to hurt even more - but i might just run good.
so all these things can compound on top of each other, or cancel each other out.
there will be analogous effects for all game types.
understanding them will help you ride out the variance, good or bad.
luck has a colloquial meaning. its a property of something or someone [lucky hand, unlucky seat etc]
variance is the range of outcomes and distances from expectation. tied into the word is expectation. and so using the term instead of 'luck' will improve mindset and even results and i believe that it is true of real life events also.