take the free card or double barrell bluff?

craigcu12

This player had begun in an aggressive manner but over time he's became very weak and easy to read post flop. He had limped KK in the very early period,

On a previous occassion he had limped in CO then called a 3bet made by myself in BB. he called the cbet of roughly 1/2 pot but gives in on the turn, the itself was 335cc 6h and having said in the the chat that he put me on AA I'm thinking the turn was one bet too many for what was probably a middle pair.

One of the advantages I did have in previous occassion was I had 3bet pre and I'm certain that did play a part in his decision given how low the board itself was and him sitting IP himself. He doesn't appear to play deceptively when hitting decent post flop. On the occassion he had limped KK the flop had an A so I can't be certain of whether or not he'd continue deceptive with premium pairs or if it was jt a case of being scared of the A an A I can't be certain of how aggressive he'd act with premium pairs post flop. One hand I'm quite sure he won't have is trips.

Dan_	Small blind		100.00	100.00	2157.50
x	Big blind		200.00	300.00	4167.50
	Your hole cards	7 8
homersmpsn	Fold
GRINTLER	Fold
craigcu12	Raise		400.00	700.00	7995.00
day4eire76	Fold
Dan_	Fold
x	Call		200.00	900.00	3967.50
Flop
		6 9 6
x	Check
craigcu12	Bet		450.00	1350.00	7545.00
x	Call		450.00	1800.00	3517.50
Turn
		2
x	Check
craigcu12	?

FeelGroggy

It depends on what you think villain can call flop with that folds to a turn bet here. I personally lean towards betting. I think hands like 55 44 or ace high could call a flop bet and fold to a turn bet, as well as weak draws which don't have the odds to call (hands like Ten 8 which have us beat). If we check here it makes it very difficult to win the hand without improving, and even if he does call there are cards that improve us to the best hand, as well as some cards we could consider bluffing at (flush cards, aces, kings) to try and fold him off a 9.

It is opponent dependent though, some of the more cally types might even call with ace high again, in which case betting here would be burning money.

If we never bluff in a spot like this it makes it easy for our opponent to fold whenever we show aggression, as we always just have it. So we should have some bluffs here to balance the times we have value, and draws without showdown value are the perfect candidates to have as bluffs. I think i bet 800/900 and fold to a jam.

craigcu12

bet sizes like that is what I usually aim towards when doing semi bluffs, if it's a straight flush draw I'll happily take the double barrell bluff but when it's one or the other I'm always left thinking will I make cash in the long run or will double barrell bluffs cost me.

how exactly does the fold equity equasion work?