Help needed please.

JACOBAAA

The following hand is from the 7pm BH last 4 left. I know i played this hand wrong completely and i am very annoyed about it now but would like some advice on where i played it wrong and how. Thankyou.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
tongting	Small blind		2000.00	2000.00	34702.00
JACOBAAA	Big blind		4000.00	6000.00	32721.00
	Your hole cards	J 10
cpfc_2010	Raise		8000.00	14000.00	90312.00
goodwin406	Fold
tongting	Fold
JACOBAAA	Call		4000.00	18000.00	28721.00
Flop
		K 10 7
JACOBAAA	Check
cpfc_2010	Bet		9000.00	27000.00	81312.00
JACOBAAA	Call		9000.00	36000.00	19721.00
Turn
		4
JACOBAAA	Check
cpfc_2010	Bet		24000.00	60000.00	57312.00
JACOBAAA	All-in		19721.00	79721.00	0.00
cpfc_2010	Unmatched bet		4279.00	75442.00	61591.00
JACOBAAA	Show	J 10
cpfc_2010	Show	9 K
River
		5
cpfc_2010	Win	Pair of Kings	75442.00		137033.00

Tikay10

Hi Jacob,

I'm a bit poo at NLH, but nobody else has replied, so I'll have a bash.

As it turns out, unless you fold pre flop or fold 2nd pair on the flop to a guy who is never folding top pair & 4 to the flush, you have to go busto here.  

Pre-flop? Well you can raise, call or fold. Calling, arguably, might be the worst of the three. It's so hard to play these sort of hands out of position. If you shove on him pre, he may well call anyway as he has a chunky stack. 
 
We played our hand sort of backwards, check calling in the hope he had air. As a general rule, we win by being the aggressor, not the passive defender. And it is MUCH easier to play these marginal in position. 

I'd also "opponent select" when taking a player on. My limited knowledge of the Villain suggests he is ultra aggro, so you were in a bit of a bad spot here. When I'm a bit thin, I try to pick on the weaker, more submissive players & try to avoid Team Aggro.     

hhyftrftdr

I did see this but was struggling to construct an answer as it's a pretty tricky spot I think. Knowing the stack size of the button would help a bit! Probably a way to work it out but I'm too stupid.

I know the villain reasonably well so it skews any answer, but I think there is a slim chance we can get a shove through pre. But I'm talking as slim as me, so wafer thin. Couple that wafer thin fold equity with a good hand that should be live and can improve many ways, I think I lean towards 3bet jamming.

Peeling to see that flop kinda seals your fate, esp vs Palace who is a massive fish. Wouldn't be laying down 22nd pair vs him, let alone 2nd pair good kicker.

If button is on fumes then there is maybe an argument to pass and ladder, but it's JTs and the reason we play poker.

cpfc_2010

Hi Jacob

You find yourself if a an unfortunate spot in this hand.  Jack ten suited is a very playable hand but unfortunately once I have raised I'm very unlikely to fold to a sub 10bb shove especially in a bounty hunter. 

Calling a raise with your stack as tikay alluded to is probably the worst available option, so I personally prefer the fold pre flop .

Please ignore the "ultra aggro" and"massive fish" comments tikay should unfortunately know better at his age and Jon is just an attention seeking egomaniac. 

Tikay10

cpfc_2010 wrote......

"Please ignore the ultra aggro..... tikay should unfortunately know better at his age"

My description was incorrect, misleading, quite improper, economical with the truth, and an inexactitude.

I unreservedly apologise.

I should have written - super uber aggro of course. 

MattBates

I wouldnt spend vast amounts concerning yourself with this hand and instead would look at how you got down to 8bb as I think that would benefit you more. 

FeelGroggy

I think this is an awkward spot. I don't think we have any fold equity pre so if we jam we are just running it with his opening range. (Which against CPFC's range we probably have okay equity but no fold equity preflop)

Folding with a hand with such good equity vs his opening range, despite our small stack size is a little tight for my liking.

 My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)

cpfc_2010

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

I wouldnt spend vast amounts concerning yourself with this hand and instead would look at how you got down to 8bb as I think that would benefit you more. 
Posted by MattBates

The above is clearly the best advice in this thread.

LARSON7

10j suited plays well as a call, even with sub 10 bigs. Jamming is good too, we still have fold equity versus villian. 

Folding would be v bad pre. 

As Matt said try and avoid blinding down, of course you might have just lost a hand in the last orbit. 

As played once we get to the flop, decide on the flop if you are going with the hand or folding. 

bearlyther

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

I think this is an awkward spot. I don't think we have any fold equity pre so if we jam we are just running it with his opening range. (Which against CPFC's range we probably have okay equity but no fold equity preflop) Folding with a hand with such good equity vs his opening range, despite our small stack size is a little tight for my liking.  My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)
Posted by FeelGroggy

Nice post agree with all of this.  I think calling here is better than shoving as we have no fold equity preflop and were getting a great price with a hand were we can flop a pair or a draw and get it in.

EvilPingu

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)
Posted by FeelGroggy

This.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

10j suited plays well as a call, even with sub 10 bigs. Jamming is good too, we still have fold equity versus villian.  Folding would be v bad pre.  As Matt said try and avoid blinding down, of course you might have just lost a hand in the last orbit.  As played once we get to the flop, decide on the flop if you are going with the hand or folding. 
Posted by LARSON7

How would folding pre be very bad? I doubt calling or jamming are massively +EV

Jam seems meh, very little fold equity and only an ok hand

Calling to c/r, Im not so sure, our draws wont have much fe giving villain nearly 3/1.

Obv it depends on villains and buttons stack, but I dont think folding and shoving atc first pot you get to open would be a bad option. Much prefer openshoving than jamming over raise from <10bb stack 

TeddyBloat

JTs is just so easy to play and we arent worried about postiional edge so much this shallow

it hits mid pair+ or strong draw on 53% of flops [add an extra few % points for bottom pairs and gutshots]

the price you are getting is so good for a had that figures to capture a hefty chuck of the post flop pot.

from a pure chip EV point of view it isnt even close. folding will be horrible.

there maybe other considerations, but unless ICM / laddering is a big factor flatting is just so good

grantorino

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

JTs is just so easy to play and we arent worried about postiional edge so much this shallow it hits mid pair+ or strong draw on 53% of flops [add an extra few % points for bottom pairs and gutshots] the price you are getting is so good for a had that figures to capture a hefty chuck of the post flop pot. from a pure chip EV point of view it isnt even close. folding will be horrible. there maybe other considerations, but unless ICM / laddering is a big factor flatting is just so good
Posted by TeddyBloat

Yeah postflop pretty simple with spr <2:1

Didnt realise we hit that much

I did a quick chip EV calc and it came out marginally -EV. Some of my assumptions may be incorrect, also possible I made a mistake in my calcs.

ICM is definitely going to be a factor at this stage o tournament

TeddyBloat

deeper stacked JTs generally captures around 50% of the post flop pot.

we are short which hurts the EV of draws, but at this depth we can pretty much know when to go with our hand and posiitional edge for the button is reduced so the effect is mitigated.

we have 1bb invested, there is a SB of dead money in the pot and btn minraises.

this means we are calling 1bb to create a pot of 4.5bb

we only need to win back that 1bb for calling to be breakeven compared to folding.

this means we only need to capture 22% of the pot on average to break even (1/(1+3.5))

even if we capture only 40% of the pot

ev(flat) = (cf*p)-c

where

cf = capture factor

p = pot

c = call

plugging in numbers

.4*4.5-1 =

0.8

so calling is .8bb better than folding. which is huge.

note that folding here loses 1bb from start of hand. if we take our EV(flat) from start of hand then it means we lose 0.2bb from start of hand (still 0.8bb better than folding, note) - which is where maybe you got your slightly -EV from.

the fact we have a BB invested in the hand means we can be -EV from start of hand and still be profitable from decision point. as long as you are consistent with your comaprisons and frame of reference then you will be ok.

grantorino

Dont have time to get into this in detail right now

I understand your calc and obv our direct pot odds are great. I just dont think direct pot odds are most important consideration with money behind

I'd say there are probably problems with assumptions I made in my calc, but its a totally different calc than you did there. Maybe calling is best play, but Id say its pretty close. 

TeddyBloat

It not direct pot odds, I'm using but rather what % of the pot we figure to capture,  and JTs is a hand that captures a lot of the pot. Hence from a pure chip EV pov flatting >> folding.

Pot odds I agree are a poor metric for deciding when to flat.

Capture factor is a lovely tool to use, as it takes into account future streets, betting etc.

grantorino

What exactly is capture factor? How is it calculated? Seems like some effort at calculating EV thru streets rather than preflop equity from what i can get on google.

If it is seems like there is a massive amount of variables involved, not sure how you can just say its x%

TeddyBloat

I'm on airport WiFi so can't go into detail.

But there are a number of ways of estimating capture factor.

You can look through database / gto  solutions to see what % of the flop pot you capture with a hand

Or to increase sample size look at how draws, top pair, 2 pair, gutshots etc do. Then use a program like flopzilla to see how many of those hands  a hand flops and tally up the numbers. Then adjust for stack size, position, skill level of villain, villains range etc.

There is some hand waving, but there is in any model. Captur factor is pretty robust once you do the leg work, and is really adaptable and useful in many spots.

Will Tipton writes pretty extensively in his books and also in some of his 2+2 posts (he posts under the name yaqh)

MattBates

In Response to Re: Help needed please.:

I'm on airport WiFi so can't go into detail. But there are a number of ways of estimating capture factor. You can look through database / gto  solutions to see what % of the flop pot you capture with a hand Or to increase sample size look at how draws, top pair, 2 pair, gutshots etc do. Then use a program like flopzilla to see how many of those hands  a hand flops and tally up the numbers. Then adjust for stack size, position, skill level of villain, villains range etc. There is some hand waving, but there is in any model. Captur factor is pretty robust once you do the leg work, and is really adaptable and useful in many spots. Will Tipton writes pretty extensively in his books and also in some of his 2+2 posts (he posts under the name yaqh)
Posted by TeddyBloat

Who are you and what have you done with Teddy!