Politics + Reality TV betting

MP33

Hi Neil

Just signed up to your twitter and tipster site. Its a good read

You talk a lot about politics on there and seem to know your stuff , yet on the results section your stats for politics are pretty shocking. I reckon your due a win tho on this so whats your top 3 tips for upcoming political markets - ps i think Hilary is to short now against Trump at 1.2. Did you get on her when she was a bigger price?  

I know there not huge markets but do you bet on reality shows like strictly and x factor? And any tips for this ?

Thx

Paul

NChanning

 Thanks MP. Glad to hear you like it. I certainly spend way too much time on Twitter but it's reassuring to hear that people actually read and like the Tweets.

 On the subject of political betting we haven't done too much of it on our tipping site. The main reason is we have about 10,000 people who ever look at the free stuff and about 2000 that look at it regularly so if we put a bet up we would imagine maybe 300 people all rushing to get a bet on and with these markets the bookies would often be very quick to change the prices and to maybe not lay any big bets. We've always tried to focus on markets where the customers can get on. The results on politics show 261 pts has been bet and our average bet is about 18 pts so basically we have suggested 15 bets in three years. We are losing 10.5 pts on those bets so that is around half a bet. Obviously we haven't done as well as we'd liked, we want to win every bet, but I think "shocking" may be a little extreme. It's a pretty small sample and we are virtually breaking even.

 I personally have felt Trump is way too short for a long time and I still think he is. The fact that almost all states are meaningless contests and it just comes down to around six swing states means US elections are pretty easy to predict and this one has been a bit dead to me as a betting event for a while.

 Right now we are living in massively interesting political times but the bookies hardly ever have any interesting new markets. I haven't seen anything for a while.

 I never watch reality TV so I hardly ever bet on it. Do you have any good tips for me?

 I never watch

MP33

In Response to Re: Politics:

 Thanks MP. Glad to hear you like it. I certainly spend way too much time on Twitter but it's reassuring to hear that people actually read and like the Tweets.  On the subject of political betting we haven't done too much of it on our tipping site. The main reason is we have about 10,000 people who ever look at the free stuff and about 2000 that look at it regularly so if we put a bet up we would imagine maybe 300 people all rushing to get a bet on and with these markets the bookies would often be very quick to change the prices and to maybe not lay any big bets. We've always tried to focus on markets where the customers can get on. The results on politics show 261 pts has been bet and our average bet is about 18 pts so basically we have suggested 15 bets in three years. We are losing 10.5 pts on those bets so that is around half a bet. Obviously we haven't done as well as we'd liked, we want to win every bet, but I think "shocking" may be a little extreme. It's a pretty small sample and we are virtually breaking even.  I personally have felt Trump is way too short for a long time and I still think he is. The fact that almost all states are meaningless contests and it just comes down to around six swing states means US elections are pretty easy to predict and this one has been a bit dead to me as a betting event for a while.  Right now we are living in massively interesting political times but the bookies hardly ever have any interesting new markets. I haven't seen anything for a while.  I never watch reality TV so I hardly ever bet on it. Do you have any good tips for me?  I never watch
Posted by NChanning

I do like a bet on the reality shows but its hard to lay your bets off as their isn,t much money  in the markets on the exchanges.

I have to watch them with the Mrs so it just makes a bit more interesting. I did back 5am (now  called 5 after midnight) str8 after their audition on the X-factor as they were my favourite and had only been togethor a few weeks so thought they had potential. I got them at 14/1 but have laid most of it off at 5.5 as i just don,t know whats going on with it anymore. it used to be the best singers who would win but with "Honey G" now at at a staggering 14/1 i haven,t got a clue. She was 500/1 in places after her audition which is hardly suprising. They seem to be putting more ppl through for enteratinment value now and as Louis Walsh said at boot camp "its alll about ratings" and it gets ppl talking about the show

Strictly is a funny one as well. I haven,t backed anyone in this yet as i,m just gaging which Celeb dancers are not connecting with the public and it seems after last week its Dasiy Lowe. She did an excellent Charleston and got good marks off the judges, yet she found herself in the bottom 2 after the public vote. I think women are intimitaed by her. She,s super hot, a fashion model and comes across as really confident. Personally i think it will be between the 2 favs in Danny Mac at Evs and Ore Aduba who got the first 10,s of the series after an excellent Jive last week. He did go slight favourite after that for a while and came top again this week so not sure why he,s 11/4 . I don,t think his price will get much bigger than that and he,ll certainly be in it to the final. My favourite to watch has to be Ed Balls tho. I,m certainly not saying to bet on him but its worth watching just for that. He alsmost dropped his partner this week and still looks like he,s never had a dance lesson in his life

Shine a light - just realised the time - i,ll reply about the politics tommorow

MP33

.  I personally have felt Trump is way too short for a long time and I still think he is. The fact that almost all states are meaningless contests and it just comes down to around six swing states means US elections are pretty easy to predict and this one has been a bit dead to me as a betting event for a while.  Right now we are living in massively interesting political times but the bookies hardly ever have any interesting new markets. I haven't seen anything for a while.  

He,s finally drifted slightly to 6.8 after being stuck on 6.0 for a while with Hillary at 1.18. I don,t really care for any of them but i too thought he would be a bigger price especially after all the negative mainstream news coverage he,s had . When Hillary Clinton comes out though the day after her collapse and stands their in front of all the media saying theres nothing wrong with her and she,s absolutely fine its hard to beleive a word she says. I,d rather have have a president who comes out with innapropraite comments than someone who is clearly corrupt. I think with the internet now and all the alternative news outlets that the American people might see through her lies and deception. iIs just a shame that Trump is the only alternative.

Was just wondering what your thoughts were on BBC sports personality market. Andy Murray was clear fav and rightly so after Wimbledon and his Olympic gold but with Alistair Brownlee helping his brother over the line do you think this will be enough to swing it in his favour? Murray is now 7/4 with Brownlee between 5/2 and 11/4.

( I did lump on Vardy in March and thought it was looking good after Leicester won the title, but like most ppl was not expecting what happened to England in the Euros) I got him at 4/1 - he,s now 150/1 - i was hoping he and England would do well and the film would be out by the end of the year

MP33

Ps - how do you change the title of a thread

I,ll change it to Politics and alternative markets or something like that as i,m always looking for new things to study the betting on

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Politics:

Ps - how do you change the title of a thread I,ll change it to Politics and alternative markets or something like that as i,m always looking for new things to study the betting on
Posted by MP33

Edit the 1st post then edit the title in that and save.

For Strictly I think the public like someone who goes "on a journey" and early front runners dont always do it.

Therefore I think the value is in those outside the current favourites.

I have gone for Fragapane and Redknapp at 9/1 and 15/2, both of whom I think will be popular with the public who make the all important final votes. 

I think if Rutherford improves he could be the "dark horse" but would need to improve quite a bit.

jordz16

I bet quite seriously on the reality markets, Big Brother tends to be easiest as you can always see who they are pushing to win with the amount of airtime/editing etc, Its similar with X factor, it was interesting to see Simon allow a Scottish act into the live shows which he has refused to do since  Jai Mcdowell won BGT at 100/1 and hasnt been since since.. The Scottish vote is huge so Ive lumped on emily to win and also to be the top girl... Strictly is far tougher, but it tends to be won by who the judges respect the most, and the praise they provide as im sure 80% of those watching have no idea of the nuances involved with dance. 

MP33

In Response to Re: Politics:

In Response to Re: Politics : Edit the 1st post then edit the title in that and save. For Strictly I think the public like someone who goes "on a journey" and early front runners dont always do it. Therefore I think the value is in those outside the current favourites. I have gone for Fragapane and Redknapp at 9/1 and 15/2, both of whom I think will be popular with the public who make the all important final votes.  I think if Rutherford improves he could be the "dark horse" but would need to improve quite a bit.
Posted by Phantom66

Alright Phantom - I know what you mean and this is true for a lot of reality shows . I think its more so in shows like Big brother and I,m a celebrity tho.

 I do like Louise Redknapp myself but just think the 2 guys are just to good atm but if she improves could be a dark horse. As for Greg Rutherford - I think he,d have to improve more than "quite a bit" tho. Some people have natural rythem but he ain,t one of them.

Its also worth looking at how much time these celebs have to practise - ie - who,s working a lot at the moment and who,s got more time on their hands

Cheers for the tip - I,ll change the thread title now

MP33

In Response to Re: Politics:

I bet quite seriously on the reality markets, Big Brother tends to be easiest as you can always see who they are pushing to win with the amount of airtime/editing etc, Its similar with X factor, it was interesting to see Simon allow a Scottish act into the live shows which he has refused to do since  Jai Mcdowell won BGT at 100/1 and hasnt been since since.. The Scottish vote is huge so Ive lumped on emily to win and also to be the top girl... Strictly is far tougher, but it tends to be won by who the judges respect the most, and the praise they provide as im sure 80% of those watching have no idea of the nuances involved with dance. 
Posted by jordz16

Hiya Jordz 

Totally agree with Strictly and how much the judges influence the vote. I,m still in that 20% and take the judges word on it although i can tell the difference when Ed Balls gets on the dancefloor - hope he stays in for a while - its hillarious

Interesting point about the locality of singers in the X Factor and the Scottish vote . it didn,t help Subo in BGT tho but i get what your saying  and i,m gonna have a punt on her myself as i do like her voice. Its pretty unique and she seems pretty likable - what price did you get? and any tips for this week - elimination or bottom 2?

jordz16

In Response to Re: Politics:

In Response to Re: Politics : Hiya Jordz  Totally agree with Strictly and how much the judges influence the vote. I,m still in that 20% and take the judges word on it although i can tell the difference when Ed Balls gets on the dancefloor - hope he stays in for a while - its hillarious Interesting point about the locality of singers in the X Factor and the Scottish vote . it didn,t help Subo in BGT tho but i get what your saying  and i,m gonna have a punt on her myself as i do like her voice. Its pretty unique and she seems pretty likable - what price did you get? and any tips for this week - elimination or bottom 2?
Posted by MP33

I got on at 18's but even though shes 10's now i think that is very fair given we have much more information, regards to elimination betting i have avoided it this year, due to the "flash vote" as im not sure how long they are going to stick with that.. but while they are still using it it id say Sara is most vulnerable as she would be less appealing to the teenage app using population... also the running order is very important... the act who goes first generally gets roughly 2 million less viewers than the act who is last... so id tend to back the poorest act who is in the first 3 performances

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Politics:

In Response to Re: Politics : Alright Phantom - I know what you mean and this is true for a lot of reality shows . I think its more so in shows like Big brother and I,m a celebrity tho.  I do like Louise Redknapp myself but just think the 2 guys are just to good atm but if she improves could be a dark horse. As for Greg Rutherford - I think he,d have to improve more than "quite a bit" tho. Some people have natural rythem but he ain,t one of them. Its also worth looking at how much time these celebs have to practise - ie - who,s working a lot at the moment and who,s got more time on their hands Cheers for the tip - I,ll change the thread title now
Posted by MP33

I agree the 2 guys are worthy favourites and most likely to win, I just think the value is in the ladies. They have time, natural ability and the work ethic to close the gap and start scoring 10s themselves.

Fragapane has the potential to do a spectacular showdance (think Louis Smith) if she gets to the final. Gymnastics is a very popular participation sport and young girls will be voting for her. Louises partner Kevin is very popular and they both have "likeability". 

I dont think Daisy did herself any favours last week when she complained about the lights and music. People get behind those who are clearly loving every minute of being there.

MP33

@ Jordz - I,m gonna punt £10 on the elimation betting this week and stick with your strategy - theres a match up bonus on another site for that market (dont think i can say which site tho)

Gonna keep my eye on the odds whilest watching tommorow - ( I got tens for emily at tens- and shes my main bet now )

Whove you got phantom?

On politics havent seen the news today so was suprised to see trump come in to 11/4 but the illuminati are always gonna pick Hilary and can,t see her losing

Phantom66

Havent got anyone on the x factor - havent really watched it this series.

In fact the strictly bet is my 1st ever reality tv bet. Mrs P is a huge strictly fan and I know a bit more about that.

I am celebtrity is usually pretty easy to pick so I might check the odds out on that this time around.

jordz16

gifty 16/1 my shout this week, still a long shot though

MP33

i reckon it will be Ryan at 5/2 . Can,t see him getting saved again and he,s almost certain to lose any sing off.

Great tip btw for Emily - she really smashed it tonight . Got her at 10/1 and ow she,s best priced 4/1 (2nd fav). she certainly won,t go near 10,s again and i reckon she could beat Matt in the final esp. with Cowell as her mentor.. Matt can sing and has the looks but its all the same and i find him a bit boring and think odds on is overpriced

weecheez1

Been watching this thread it's a belter I don't bet on reality tv but due to the fact I have a wife and three daughters I watch quite a bit and Simon Cowell is a very very clever man who could make money out of anything and he knows how to manipulate things last night was a prime example two girls singing the first he apologised for even though the other judges praised her and the second he gave a standing ovation to and don't even get me started on honey g how hard must it be for a young act who gives it everything to be sent home when x factors answer to tk ;-) goes through 

jordz16

In Response to Re: Politics + Reality TV betting:

i reckon it will be Ryan at 5/2 . Can,t see him getting saved again and he,s almost certain to lose any sing off. Great tip btw for Emily - she really smashed it tonight . Got her at 10/1 and ow she,s best priced 4/1 (2nd fav). she certainly won,t go near 10,s again and i reckon she could beat Matt in the final esp. with Cowell as her mentor.. Matt can sing and has the looks but its all the same and i find him a bit boring and think odds on is overpriced
Posted by MP33

yeah i would agree she is as good as favourite now, she was given the pimpp spot (last act on) on the crucial week, as i believe everyone who makes the last 8 will be on the tour... Also they gave that Matt guy very little airtime which makes me think they would now prefer Emily to win. 

Ryan definitely wouldnt survive a sing off, all depends ihow much longer they  stick with this flash vote concept, if they do, hes almost certainly going to be saved again against the 3 other potential, acts. 

MP33

In Response to Re: Politics + Reality TV betting:

Been watching this thread it's a belter I don't bet on reality tv but due to the fact I have a wife and three daughters I watch quite a bit and Simon Cowell is a very very clever man who could make money out of anything and he knows how to manipulate things last night was a prime example two girls singing the first he apologised for even though the other judges praised her and the second he gave a standing ovation to and don't even get me started on honey g how hard must it be for a young act who gives it everything to be sent home when x factors answer to tk ;-) goes through 
Posted by weecheez1

lol - he,ll love that

MP33

In Response to Re: Politics + Reality TV betting:

gifty 16/1 my shout this week, still a long shot though
Posted by jordz16

Wow - Another gr8 tip Jordz _ Hope you were on it

Unfortanately i didn,t back it - Think its because i was putting a tenner on, rather than a cpl of quid (  as part of match bet promo) and thought i,d stick with what i thought was a safer bet at 5/2 with Ryan but you were right again when he got saved in the flash vote.  

Look forward to your thoughts for nxt week

jordz16

Yeah luckily enough i had a decent bet on.

It will be harder to find value next week i predict as I dont think they will be bothered who goes as long as its not one of the top 3 in the betting. 

Phantom66

Any tips for tonight?

I have put a very small bet on Sam Lavery to be eliminated 14/1.

I think the theme of girl/boy bands will suit the girl band and I would back every other act v her in a sing-off apart from Ryan so lets hope they keep the flash vote in.

Strictly - Do they do in play betting? I am have been pretty good at picking the leaving act once the dances have completed but not sure I would have much of an edge to take a punt before then.

I think Laura+Daisy are the least popular but they are strong enough to win dance offs v the other likely candidates.