Just been looking at the odds for x-factor. It seems Emily has slipped to 10/1 and is now 4th fav - even behind Saara. theres been 2 acts on (Matt and Saara). Could this be a good time to back her ? Posted by MP33
Id say so, her and Sara were given the best slots and most airtime last night which means they are very much hoping to have both in the semi final, Matt Terry was again given the least airtime and worst possible slots on the show, it shows he would not be a popular winner among those in control but hes obviously extremely popular which is why they are fighting it so hard. Im sure Honey G's time will be up this week, id expect to see her and Sara in the bottom 2. with Sara singing second an therefore being saved by the judges.
Was gonna punt on Honey G but shes now only 1/3 best priced to go . Gonna go for the bottom combo on Sky off Honey G and Saara and is now 7/1 - GL ( ps . How do you think Martin will do in a celeb - into 8/1 from 40,s
ps Didn,t realise what a good market Sky has on these
RE: I'm a celeb and Martin I think the top 4 are clear and unlikely to be dislodged. Given their air time and amount of people voting for them when it is to do a trial or get a perk.
Scarlett, Adam, Joel and now Martin. I agree Scarlett and Adam are favourites but after thinking I have done my money pleased he is in there with a shout now.
I think Larry being a d*ck to him will help him, especially with scarlett speaking up for him as opposed to being the "victim" last time. They also showed alot of celbs saying nice things about Martin.
So he is in with a shout of top 2 and probably represents the value for an e/w bet. I actually had 2 bets on him before he entered at 16/1 and 33/1 and that was e/w 3 places so I could yet get a return.
5/5 on X factor eliminations, given the only 2 who havent been in the bottom 2 all series are Emily and Matt then i guess its a 2-way shoot out between them. Saras price has dropped rapidly but its hard to imagine they would want her to win as im not sure how marketable she would be as a winner, although she does add some European interest if she makes the final.
I'm a celeb should be easy to pick each elimination, as there is only a short window to vote, therefore look at the bottom 4 in the market and pick whoever has had the least airtime that night..
In terms of the winner market it looks likely to be a 3 horse race (sorry Phantom!) going by recent follows, interactions, and likes, Scarlett, Joel and Adam have had more than double the rest of the field combined..... Scarlett comes out on top, Adam is a close second, and Joel is third. There is still time for it all to change though, as it only takes 1 major incident to swing the odds in anyones favour.
Martin Roberts is a strange one, i think if people were voting who to eliminate he would have been first gone, but as its a save vote then the biggest and strangest charachters should make it a lot further, for him to have a chance of winning though he will need to monopolise the airtime, im not too sure the producers would want him to win either with him representing a tv show from another channel, but the same goes for Scarlett too although i think she may have quit her show to come on here.
Given the 2 eliminations so far have been celebs who are virtually unknown to those under 25 that may be the way the eliminations now go. If i had to plump for the next elimination id say Sam Quek 2/1 as she has by far the lowest fanbase left in but i wouldnt be betting on it until ive seen a portion of the show.
If youve got a laptop handy when its on tonight Jordz do you mind sticking in here who your gonna go with? I agree that Sam will go tonight too and thats my plan but il wait for a bit
Yeah i will try to, just seen Sam and Carol will be doing the trial tonight which may give them enough airtime to keep them safe.. this would lead me to think that Ola Jordan is vulnerable at 15/2.. I may have a bet on that now as i reckon sam/Carol's odds will drift once they are seen doing the trial
I'm a celeb should be easy to pick each elimination, as there is only a short window to vote, therefore look at the bottom 4 in the market and pick whoever has had the least airtime that night.. In terms of the winner market it looks likely to be a 3 horse race (sorry Phantom!) going by recent follows, interactions, and likes, Scarlett, Joel and Adam have had more than double the rest of the field combined..... Scarlett comes out on top, Adam is a close second, and Joel is third. Posted by jordz16
You have nailed it there Jordz. I have been following this thread with interest from the start as I have had quite a bit of success on Reality TV betting myself over the last few years. I only follow IACGMOOH & Big Brother now so have not contributed. I just can not watch Strictly & Xfactor rigged shows anymore so leave them markets alone.
Anyway, I tipped (not here but another forum) Scotty T to win CBB a while back. I had a very large amount (for me anyway) on him to win and it was just down to his age and media interaction like twitter follows etc.
The one factor thing I will add to your 3 horse race (which I agree with) is if the winner is 'sellable' after the show ends?. Scarlett is my fav to win but Joel could be more suited to the aftershow stuff like Xtracamp which is now fronted by ex winners, who are all wannabe presenters, plus a comic frontman. For this reason, I have had bets on both.
Good luck anyway....and if anyone asks, neither of us watch any of it!
I,ve jusr laid my Joel to win bet off as he,s come right in 5/2 - took your advice for once jordz and backed him at tens. Gonna put some of the profit on maxallys tip for the forecast and a bet on Ola to go although i,m also gonna watch first and see if she gets much air time
also think Saara to go nxt week is good value at 4/1
Id be avoiding Carol and Sam now this trial is getting a decent amount of airtime, there is probably value to be had with Ola (9/2) Larry ) (6/1) and Wayne (12/1) im just going to stick with my Ola bet from earlier though.
Id be avoiding Carol and Sam now this trial is getting a decent amount of airtime, there is probably value to be had with Ola (9/2) Larry ) (6/1) and Wayne (12/1) im just going to stick with my Ola bet from earlier though. Posted by jordz16
In Response to Re: Reality TV betting : Yeeeeessss Jordz, you da man! Posted by gonedoggin
+1 to that - Got her at 5/1 before the programme started .I noticed she went in to 9/4 towards the end of it. @Jordz - what time do we find out whos doing the trial?
Another nice win, i think that confirms how important air time will be over the next few days..
as for the trials, im not sure, i only noticed by chance earlier when i googled IAC, but a simple search of the twitter or website in the afternoon should provide the much needed info.
been announced Larry and Jordan are doing the trial tonight, which means id e avoiding them again, that leaves 3 likely candidates, Carol (5/4) Sam (11/4) and Wayne (6/1) I agree Carol is most likely to go, but i wouldnt touch her at that price, statistically Sam is about the right price but i feel she is desperate to stay and that may sway some voters, so if there is any value then its with Wayne at 6/1, he seems like a top bloke and is well liked but i dont think hes getting enough airtime and if we remember When Jimmy Bullard was on here he was out first so Footballers down have the greatest of records.. My hope is Carol will drift at some point and if she gets to 5/2 at any point then il have a saver bet on her as well.
been announced Larry and Jordan are doing the trial tonight, which means id e avoiding them again, that leaves 3 likely candidates, Carol (5/4) Sam (11/4) and Wayne (6/1) I agree Carol is most likely to go, but i wouldnt touch her at that price, statistically Sam is about the right price but i feel she is desperate to stay and that may sway some voters, so if there is any value then its with Wayne at 6/1, he seems like a top bloke and is well liked but i dont think hes getting enough airtime and if we remember When Jimmy Bullard was on here he was out first so Footballers down have the greatest of records.. My hope is Carol will drift at some point and if she gets to 5/2 at any point then il have a saver bet on her as well. Posted by jordz16
Im gonna follow cos you've done really well on the others. My problem with going for Wayne is I sometimes believe in the logic that when someones been in the bottom 2 the Wayne "die hards" might come out hard now to keep him in.
thats true, and i did consider leaving it for now, what swayed it for me was only Martin has a lesser online following than Wayne also i feel that Joel is very Similar to Wayne except slightly funnier so those who may consider voting for Wayne would probably sway towards voting for Joel. But as its a 3 horse race imo Id happily have a bet on Sam or Carol too if their prices reach 3/1
It Was a strange one tonight, there are a couple of reasons why i can justify it, his task was aired very early during the show when the viewing figures are at the lowest, the task seemed fairly easy and wasnt given a huge amount of airtime... I felt like things were nailed on with Wayne as he reached odds on midway through the show, unfortunately 5 mins before the voting closed he did the mini trial with Adam which would have seem a late flurry of votes and was probably what cost us
Lamb next out is 11/2. Mentioned in the after show (by Danny baker) he was close to walking on a couple of occasions, but being a 'pro' didnt (obv). He was also visibly sunk when he didnt go tonight. Plus the trial coming up where 4/5 get water cannoned etc, so younger ones needed for that imo.
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