Nut flush draw

Jac35

5 handed

Blinds 100/200

I raise on button to 400 with A10cc playing 2350

Both blinds (not regs) call

Sb has 1900 and bb has 2600

Flop

9c 5c 4d

Sb leads for 400 and bb dwell calls 

I made by decision pretty quickly at the time. Not 100% sure it was the right one

What do you do?

HENDRIK62

This is a great question, but I suppose other than flopping the nuts its about as good as it gets, so I think I am coming over the top, then watching through my fingers.

bbMike

2000 in the pot, I'd be jamming. We preserve our equity knowing we get to see 2 cards. I'd hate to call and miss. Getting folds would be a fantastic result, more likely we'll get at least one call and then we know we have to hit. Some players would call with 9x, some TT JJ, worst case we're versus a set but I can't see a way out.

Phantom66

Are you kidding? There is a str8 flush gutshot draw out there. FOLD ;-)

Phantom66

Never calling. Mostly shoving. Don't mind a fold depending on my feeling for the blinds play to date.

jdsallstar

I dunno about the shove. Given the donk and call I think it's safe to say we're up against a 9 or better and therefore I think we have to assume we're getting called if we shove.

If we have two live outs aside from the flush draw we're around 53% favs (assuming one caller) and if we have only one live out (10 9, A9 or weakly played 10s or JJ's) we're 46% fav. Obviously both below the 55% to breakeven but then the shove does get 2 folds on occasion. If we get two callers our equity falls further as well. Then theres also slow played trips by the bb although you'd think that's unlikely given stack sizes, wet board, 3 players and a donk.

MTT I think it's an easy shove but dym I'm leaning towards call. In game however I may just shove instinctively. 

Lambert180

Instinctively, like you, I would make my decision pretty quickly and jam.

Not sure if that's the right way to play it but it's what I'd do. The concern is the short stack (the SB) has lead and is imo pretty much never folding to a jam so we really have no FE and is often gonna have a pair (probably 9x) which we are flipping against (assuming he doesn't block an out like with A9/T9) but we don't really want to be knowingly flipping with no FE in a DYM. 

If he ever leads anything like a worse FD or anything though then I think we deffo gotta jam.

jdsallstar

Me and lambo singing from the same hymn sheet.

bbMike

In Response to Re: Nut flush draw:

I dunno about the shove. Given the donk and call I think it's safe to say we're up against a 9 or better and therefore I think we have to assume we're getting called if we shove. If we have two live outs aside from the flush draw we're around 53% favs (assuming one caller) and if we have only one live out (10 9, A9 or weakly played 10s or JJ's) we're 46% fav. Obviously both below the 55% to breakeven but then the shove does get 2 folds on occasion. If we get two callers our equity falls further as well. Then theres also slow played trips by the bb although you'd think that's unlikely given stack sizes, wet board, 3 players and a donk. MTT I think it's an easy shove but dym I'm leaning towards call. In game however I may just shove instinctively. 
Posted by jdsallstar

I've seen this pop up from time to time and was thinking about it when reading the other thread, I don't think it's the correct comparison. It's only a relevant measure if spots like this cropped up in every game. What instead might be better is thinking about whether other action gives us a better or worse conversion rate in this particular game. 

Let's consider a fold, we have 1950 5 handed, it helps us if one of these players busts/doubles in this hand but equally they may check back turn or continue min betting to see the river. After the hand completes we may be placed 4/4 (even though other 2 stacks not mentioned might be similar to ours). Do we give ourselves more than say 53% to cash now? Maybe we do.

Considering a call, we're only going to improve around 25% of the time, we have 1550 and a pot of 2400. Do we fold to another min bet the 75% of the time we miss and shove most of the 25%? Does this strategy give us more than 53% chance of cashing this game? I don't know, but I'm hoping someone smarter or with more time will be along to have a good guess!

bbMike

Sometimes it's so close that's it's not worth spending the in-game mental energy on! I think you'll get two folds a small proportion of the time and that would tip it for me.

Presume we are happy jamming JJ here?

jdsallstar

Very fair point mike re call or fold reducing our win rate. 

I think a fold maintains our win rate at around the 55%+ mark because stacks look reasonably even and 12bb deep. If we're normally a winning player i'd still say it's greater than the 55% for breakeven.

The call and then fold on the turn then playing a 1950 stack would definitely reduce our chances of winning. Obviously hitting we'll seal the deal 9 times out of 10. If we call and fold playing a 1950 stack vs a 2350 stack if we'd have folded is anyone's guess what our expected win rate is now but i'd like to think it's still in and around 50%+ and we still have plenty of fold equity at roughly 10 bigs deep.

Think shoving just guarantees the lower win rate, side benefit though of other players seeing us jam less than the nuts/fully made hands which may help us in future games. Again that ones anyones guess.

hhyftrftdr

Think it would be a closer decision if there was 4 left.

Instinct says to jam, and pretty happy to do that.