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Odds/Mubs Question

SR23SR23 Member Posts: 1,228
edited February 2017 in Poker Chat

What are the odds of being behind on a KKK flop when holding AA? 

Further, is a bet, bet, bet-call line too mubsy* on a T8 turn/river? Should we be doing anything different here? (I bet 75-80% on three streets and villain just clicked back river)

Cheers. 

*I had a feeling. Yep, a feeling. 
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Comments

  • aussie09aussie09 Member Posts: 8,033
    edited February 2017

    interesting...

    given 6 players and that you see your AA, the chance that the first opponent hole card dealt is not a king is 46 from 50, chance of second card dealt not being a king is 45 from 49 etc for ten cards.

    the chances of the flop being 3 kings is silly of course but if that happens the chances of being ahead (no king dealt) is 0.3968.    the maximum chance of being behind is 60.32%.

    this can only be diminished if the (soon to be lucky) opponent mucks their hand with the king

    that's my best attempt, could be wrong.



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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited February 2017
    If the range of your opponent is KQo, KQs & KTs then you're behind 100% of the time.
    If the range of your opponent is 74o, 98o, JTs & A4o then you're ahead 100% of the time.
    For everything else it's somewhere in between. 

    The question is pointless unless information about ranges and tendencies is provided. Even then only a probabilistic answer can be given, and even then it could still be way off since we're just stupid humans working with incomplete information. 
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  • markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited February 2017
    Yes as mentioned ranges are important here.

    If you are talking about 1 opponent with a 22+ and 23o+ range then there is a 1 in 23.5 chance you are behind. People have different ranges though and not many people play the entire deck as their range.
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  • SR23SR23 Member Posts: 1,228
    edited February 2017
    Thanks for the replies. 

    I suppose the details were a little scant. Apologies, here are some more:

    The hand was hu bvb against a complete unknown (I had been at the table a couple of minutes) at 10nl. I 3x'd and he called. I'd not played/seen a hand from the opponent but plucking a range out of the air for an unknown at this level bvb IP, something probably like 22+, 54s+, 97o+. 

    But I suppose my question - which clearly could have been worded better - is what are the odds hu of flopping the nut full house and being behind to quads (without quads player having a pair pre)? 

    This may be a pointless question too but I'm (a) not very good at working out odds, (b) curious, (c) wanting to feel sorry for myself. 

    Thanks again. 
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  • markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question:
    Thanks for the replies.  I suppose the details were a little scant. Apologies, here are some more: The hand was hu bvb against a complete unknown (I had been at the table a couple of minutes) at 10nl. I 3x'd and he called. I'd not played/seen a hand from the opponent but plucking a range out of the air for an unknown at this level bvb IP, something probably like 22+, 54s+, 97o+.  But I suppose my question - which clearly could have been worded better - is what are the odds hu of flopping the nut full house and being behind to quads (without quads player having a pair pre)?  This may be a pointless question too but I'm (a) not very good at working out odds, (b) curious, (c) wanting to feel sorry for myself.  Thanks again. 
    Posted by SR23
    1 in 23.5

    There are 52 cards, minus the 3 on the flop and minus the 2 aces you hold so 47 cards left. Of the 47 cards left only 1 is the case king. Your opponent has 2 cards so a 2 in 47 or 1 in 23.5 chance of having the case king. Which I think is around a 4.255% chance.
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  • Jac35Jac35 Member Posts: 6,492
    edited February 2017
    Did he have a King?
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  • mumsiemumsie Member Posts: 8,195
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question:
    Did he have a King?
    Posted by Jac35

    I don't think he did to be fair.
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  • markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question:
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question : I don't think he did to be fair.
    Posted by mumsie
    Judging by the "(c) want to feel sorry for myself" comment, I am going to go with the opponent having the king :)
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  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 7,878
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Odds/Mubs Question:
    What are the odds of being behind on a KKK flop when holding AA?  Further, is a bet, bet, bet-call line too mubsy* on a T8 turn/river? Should we be doing anything different here? (I bet 75-80% on three streets and villain just clicked back river) Cheers.  *I had a feeling. Yep, a feeling. 
    Posted by SR23
    i think this tells you he had the king..i think
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  • NoCarbDietNoCarbDiet Member Posts: 11
    edited February 2017

    O star of wonder, star of night,
    Star of royal beauty bright,
    Westward leading, still proceeding,
    Guide us to thy perfect light.


    That flop makes me feel all Christmassy

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  • scouse_redscouse_red Member Posts: 5,968
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question:
    O star of wonder, star of night, Star of royal beauty bright, Westward leading, still proceeding, Guide us to thy perfect light. That flop makes me feel all Christmassy
    Posted by NoCarbDiet
    well 307 days to go so not long to wait, it'll be here b4 you know it
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  • markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited February 2017
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question:
    In Response to Re: Odds/Mubs Question : well 307 days to go so not long to wait, it'll be here b4 you know it
    Posted by scouse_red
    Lol, yes! Probably only a week or 2 before some shops somewhere start putting the Xmas goodies on display.
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